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June 20th - Market analysts predict gold will remain volatile next week as investors await the release of the US core personal consumption expenditures (core PCE) price index for clues about the Federal Reserves interest rate path. Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, stated, "With the Fed now appearing more accustomed to changing circumstances and increasingly sensitive to upcoming inflation data, every major economic data release will have an impact, but the core PCE will be a key event for both gold and interest rate markets, and next week will be highly data-dependent." Innes also noted that stronger-than-expected inflation readings could boost the dollar, push up yields, and increase the risk of gold prices testing the $4,000 per ounce level. Gold investors should prepare for increased volatility and be wary of potential further sell-offs.June 20th - According to the China Railway Shanghai Group Co., Ltd., during the recent Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the group transported 4.031 million passengers, setting a new record for single-day passenger volume during the holiday. Today, the group expects to transport 2.49 million passengers and plans to add 93 passenger trains. Since the start of the Dragon Boat Festival holiday transport on June 18th, the group has transported a total of 7.584 million passengers, averaging approximately 3.792 million passengers per day, indicating strong holiday travel demand.According to Al Arabiya satellite television, Pakistans Interior Minister will travel to Tehran to meet with Iranian officials.Conflict Status: 1. Ukraine claims Russian military attacks on civilian boats and buses resulted in 1 death and 9 injuries. 2. The Ukrainian military claims to have attacked railway bridges in Russian-controlled Crimea. 3. The Kremlin: Russian airstrikes against Ukraine will continue; Ukraines policy is not aimed at negotiations. 4. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister: A Russian drone strike resulted in the death of a Panamanian crew member in the Black Sea. 5. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin reports that air defense forces shot down three drones heading towards Moscow. 6. Kyiv Electric Power Company DTEK: Russian attacks over the past two days have severely damaged DTEK energy facilities in Ukraines Dnipropetrovsk region. Peace Negotiations: 1. Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian-Russian negotiations may resume, allowing Russia to finalize specific forms. 2. The Kremlin stated that Russia is willing to engage in dialogue with Europe but will not accept ultimatums. 3. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: When Russia comes to the negotiating table, we need a united European message. 4. European Council President Costa: We need to support Ukraine through diplomatic means, including establishing direct communication channels with Russia. Other developments: 1. The Central Bank of Russia cut interest rates by 25 basis points, compared to market expectations of a 50 basis point cut. 2. The International Atomic Energy Agency: Repairs have begun on the main transmission lines of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. 3. According to sources, Russias daily gasoline production this week has decreased by a quarter compared to the average daily level in June last year.US President Trump: US Secretary of Defense Hergsay is a born fighter. He has never known what it means to admit defeat. He has an extremely tough personality and is a person who loves the military from the bottom of his heart.

WTI rebounded from $73.00, but a decline appears probable as negative US PMI spark recession fears

Daniel Rogers

Jan 05, 2023 14:41

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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) have regained some ground in the Asian session after falling to near $73.00. Oil prices experienced a slaughter on Wednesday, which was precipitated by a consecutive dip in United States Manufacturing PMI data provided by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) department.

 

The U.S. Manufacturing PMI dipped to 48.4 vs estimates of 48.5 and the previous publication of 49.0, marking the lowest figure since May 2000. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) aggressive policy tightening actions to combat persistent inflation have reduced the volume of manufacturing operations. To avoid increasing interest costs, companies are avoiding debt-raising negotiations, which has resulted in unaltered production capacities and diminished investment options.

 

In the meantime, the robust U.S. job market gives the Federal Reserve (Fed) a compelling justification to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. The Unemployment Rate is extremely steady at lower levels, and pay growth is robust, which continues to keep inflationary pressures in check.

 

The American Petroleum Institute (API) stated that oil inventories grew by 3,298 million barrels for the week ending December 30. As people were preoccupied with New Year's celebrations, the majority of operational activity ceased. The official US oil inventory figures will provide fresh impetus moving forward.

 

In the Asian region, increased Covid infections in China are indicative of a delayed economic recovery. Analysts at Rabobank believe that China is still attempting to deal with the increase in Covid infections following the easing of restrictions. "The current increase of Covid infections is stressing the Chinese health care system in more ways than one. Bloomberg adds that this may also impede Beijing's aspirations to launch a homegrown semiconductor industry to compete with US-controlled supply chains.

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