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On August 5th, Nick Timiraos, a vocal advocate for the Federal Reserve, wrote that Treasury Secretary Bessants policy response function has become less dovish. His comments this year suggested the Fed should maintain its current interest rates. Earlier this year, Bessant cited models suggesting the Feds interest rate could be more than 25 to 100 basis points above the neutral rate. Today (August 4th), he raised two points. First, he defended Warshs decision last week not to elaborate on any policy response function: "I think every meeting should be open, and market participants should make their own judgments… I think Warsh wanted to preserve options to achieve the best outcome." Second, he did propose a policy response function that could be considered dovish, arguing that recent shocks should be ignored: "What will be the impact of rising short-term interest rates? Well see." He raised this question but then responded by noting that underlying inflation was "very modest… very stable." "Core inflation, after removing the energy-dependent volatility component, has been very stable. I think this will continue."Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman: The flight routes under negotiation are aimed at ensuring the sovereign rights and national security considerations of both Iran and Oman.Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman: The focus of the negotiations is to determine safe passageways in and out of the Strait of Hormuz.Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson: The final results of the negotiations will be released after being compiled and summarized.The China Earthquake Networks Center automatically determined that an earthquake of approximately magnitude 3.6 occurred near Gao County, Yibin City, Sichuan Province (28.55 degrees north latitude, 104.68 degrees east longitude) at 23:58 on August 4. The final result is subject to the official rapid report.

Forecast for the Gold Price: The XAU/USD pair continues to struggle below $1,850 as investors await FOMC minutes

Daniel Rogers

Jan 04, 2023 15:03

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After clearing the $1,800.00 barrier, the gold price (XAU/USD) has leveled off around $1,844.00 in the early European session. The precious metal continues to struggle to surpass the important resistance level of $1,850. Following the release of United States ISM Manufacturing PMI data, the gold price is anticipated to demonstrate a significant move.

 

S&P500 futures tried a recovery rise in the Asian session following a two-day decline, but require more filters to draw a responsive purchasing action, indicating cautious optimism. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is fighting to hold above the 104.20 threshold as 10-year US Treasury yields decline below 3.73 percent.

 

The ISM Manufacturing PMI is likely to decline further to 48.5, from 49.0 in November, according to forecasts. The Federal Reserve (Fed) could be compelled to scale down its policy tightening measures as a result of weakening manufacturing activity in the United States, which are anticipated to herald a further decline in inflation estimates. Thursday's release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes will provide investors with greater insight into the prospects for monetary policy.


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