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Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara: I hope the Bank of Japan will work closely with the government to formulate appropriate monetary policies to achieve the 2% inflation target in a stable and sustainable manner, and that inflation should not be driven by cost-push factors but by wage growth.On March 19th, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) warned on Thursday that the Middle East conflict could trigger a severe international shock, but that Australian banks are well-positioned to support the economy should a significant downturn occur. In its semi-annual Financial Stability Review, the RBA listed a range of global vulnerabilities, including a potential collapse in financial markets, cyberattacks, and the spread of unconventional policies. This implies that the risk of a significant adverse shock to the domestic economy has increased in recent weeks. The RBA stated, "The Middle East conflict could trigger a larger shock, thereby disrupting the global economy, particularly given the continued supply disruptions in oil and other commodity markets… Given the significant increase in leverage and concentration in key global asset markets in recent years under low-risk premiums, this increases the likelihood of disorderly asset repricing in the event of further adverse developments." The RBA also stated that investments related to artificial intelligence could face a significant sell-off risk if productivity fails to improve as expected.On March 19, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that on March 18, Russian forces conducted strikes in 145 regions against targets serving Ukrainian energy and transportation infrastructure, as well as temporary deployments of Ukrainian troops and foreign mercenaries, shooting down three precision-guided bombs and 316 drones. Additionally, Russian forces seized control of a settlement in the Donetsk region. On the same day, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that Ukrainian forces were thwarting Russian attempts to advance deeper into Ukraine, inflicting significant personnel and equipment losses in multiple locations. The Ukrainian Air Force, missile units, and artillery attacked three Russian personnel assembly areas and three drone control points, shooting down over 1,100 Russian drones.March 19th, Futures News: Positive news in the oil market boosted bullish sentiment in the fuel oil market. Some downstream users moderately replenished their inventories at lower prices, while refineries were reluctant to sell at low prices, significantly pushing up the negotiation point. With major refineries in northern China about to shut down, the tightening supply of low-sulfur residue oil/asphalt is expected to further support the market. Fuel oil negotiations are expected to maintain a slight upward trend today.A chart summarizing the overnight price movements of international spot platinum and palladium.

Forecast for the Gold Price: The XAU/USD pair continues to struggle below $1,850 as investors await FOMC minutes

Daniel Rogers

Jan 04, 2023 15:03

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After clearing the $1,800.00 barrier, the gold price (XAU/USD) has leveled off around $1,844.00 in the early European session. The precious metal continues to struggle to surpass the important resistance level of $1,850. Following the release of United States ISM Manufacturing PMI data, the gold price is anticipated to demonstrate a significant move.

 

S&P500 futures tried a recovery rise in the Asian session following a two-day decline, but require more filters to draw a responsive purchasing action, indicating cautious optimism. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is fighting to hold above the 104.20 threshold as 10-year US Treasury yields decline below 3.73 percent.

 

The ISM Manufacturing PMI is likely to decline further to 48.5, from 49.0 in November, according to forecasts. The Federal Reserve (Fed) could be compelled to scale down its policy tightening measures as a result of weakening manufacturing activity in the United States, which are anticipated to herald a further decline in inflation estimates. Thursday's release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes will provide investors with greater insight into the prospects for monetary policy.