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February 13 – Australian Treasurer Charles Chalmers has appointed Bruce Preston to the Reserve Bank of Australias (RBA) interest rate setting committee, replacing Alison Watkins, whose term is expiring. Preston, currently a professor of economics at the University of New South Wales, previously served as a senior advisor to the RBA and the Treasury. Chalmers stated in a statement on Friday that Prestons five-year term will begin on March 1. This personnel change is closely watched amid heightened uncertainty about the current economic outlook. The appointment comes at a crucial time for the RBA, which has become the first major central bank globally to raise interest rates this year due to persistently strong inflation. This week, Governor Bullock and his deputy Hauser have both expressed a hawkish stance on inflation on various occasions, stating that further policy tightening may be necessary if price pressures prove to be deeply entrenched. For global investors, the addition of a senior academic with experience in central banks and the Treasury signals continuity in technocratic decision-making as Australia navigates external risks from weak productivity, a tight labor market, and broader geopolitical uncertainty.Conflict Situation: 1. Russia—① Russian Ministry of Defense: Russian forces launched a cluster attack on energy facilities used by the Ukrainian armed forces. Between 8:00 AM and 12:00 PM Moscow time, air defense systems intercepted and destroyed 13 Ukrainian-type unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). ② Two sources stated that the Volgograd oil refinery in Russia has ceased oil processing following a drone attack on Wednesday. ③ The governor of Belgorod, Russia, stated that the enemy attack resulted in power outages for over 220,000 people. 2. Ukraine—① The Ukrainian Air Force warned that Russia might launch medium-range ballistic missiles. The mayor of Kyiv stated that 2,600 more buildings in the city lost heating following the Russian attack. ② The Ukrainian military: Attacked the Lukoil oil refinery in the Komi region of Russia, as well as a factory in the Tambov region that produces high-tech aviation and missile equipment. ③ Ukrainian air defense forces: Russian forces launched intensive nighttime strikes on Thursday against major Ukrainian cities including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa, and Dnipropetrov, damaging some residential buildings; most of the 24 ballistic missiles and 219 drones that attacked were intercepted. ④ Zelensky: Russia launched another large-scale attack on Ukraines energy sector. Last night, 24 ballistic missiles, 1 cruise missile, and more than 200 drones attacked, a significant number of which were successfully shot down. Other developments: 1. Kremlin: The next round of Russia-Ukraine peace talks is expected to be held soon. 2. British Defense Secretary Healy: Has pledged $35 billion in military aid to Ukraine. 3. Ukrainian Defense Minister calls on allies to urgently deploy Patriot PAC-3 missiles from its warehouses for air defense. 4. Secretary of the Ukrainian Security and Defense Council stated that Ukrainian military product manufacturers have obtained the first batch of wartime export licenses. 5. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry: Due to the attacks launched by Russia, the transport of Russian oil to Europe via the "Friendship" pipeline in Ukraine has been suspended since January 27. 6. An internal Russian memo shows that Russia has put forward seven suggestions for economic cooperation with the US to win Trumps support, including returning to the dollar system and joint plans in the energy, mineral, and fossil fuel sectors.Foreign central banks held $14.12 billion in U.S. Treasury securities in the week ending February 13, compared with a previous weeks figure of -$4.002 billion.February 13th - Electric vehicle manufacturer Rivian warned that its losses this year may be higher than expected as it works to control costs during the critical period leading up to the launch of its next-generation SUV. In releasing its fourth-quarter earnings report, Rivian projected an adjusted EBITDA loss of $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion for 2026. While the final figure in this range represents an improvement over last years loss, it exceeded analysts previous expectations of a loss of approximately $1.8 billion. This forecast indicates that Rivians path to profitability remains bumpy, facing weak demand for electric vehicles, high raw material costs, and the loss of regulatory credit revenue following the Republican-led repeal of electric vehicle-friendly policies. Rivian also stated that its highly anticipated R2 mid-size electric SUV will go on sale as planned in the second quarter. This model is crucial for Rivian to achieve higher production volumes and improved profitability, as it will be launched at a lower price.Rivian (RIVN.O) reported fourth-quarter revenue of $1.286 billion, compared to market expectations of $1.263 billion.

Forecast for the Gold Price: XAU/USD moves up above $1,850 as yields fall following FOMC minutes

Daniel Rogers

Jan 05, 2023 15:01

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In the late New York session, the gold price (XAU/USD) has attracted buying activity following a corrective move to approach the critical support of $1,850. After failing to sustain above $1,860.00, the precious metal declined; however, the corrective move is light and does not indicate a serious reversal.

 

After a decline in the U.S. Manufacturing PMI bolstered indications of further deceleration in the U.S. Consumer Price Index, market participants' demand for risk-perceived assets such as the S&P 500 increased (CPI). In response to a decrease in product demand, corporations may be compelled to reduce the price of factory items.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell below the 104.00 level as yields on 10-year US Treasuries were subjected to intense pressure and plummeted to roughly 3.69 percent. Safe-haven assets are under pressure due to the anticipation of a further fall in inflationary pressures. After remaining aggressive throughout the entire year, Federal Reserve (Fed) head Jerome Powell changed to a slowing scenario in December regarding an interest rate hike. Undoubtedly, the inflation rate is still a significant distance from the 2% target; yet, the presence of factors that support a further deceleration in the price index weighs on safe-haven assets.