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According to the Iranian news agency IRNA, Irans ambassador to the United Nations stated that the so-called "economic pressure campaign" by the United States could have serious consequences. We call on all countries to reject and condemn the transnational unilateral coercive measures implemented by the US regime, which aim to force member states to comply with US policies, disregarding their sovereignty and legitimate policies.August 26 – According to the Wall Street Journal, a U.S. government official stated that Trump has submitted a landmark Saudi civilian nuclear agreement to Congress for consideration, but has not abandoned his last-minute demand that Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel. This move is expected to spark months of heated debate among lawmakers on how to promote the development of the U.S. nuclear industry while curbing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East. Last month, when announcing the 30-year agreement, Trump administration officials stated that it would allow U.S. companies to play a central role in Saudi Arabias nuclear infrastructure development while excluding foreign competition. However, the agreement has been controversial because it could open the door to uranium enrichment activities on Saudi Arabian soil.A Reuters poll on August 26th showed that most economists believe the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will act sooner than previously expected, raising interest rates again in September, and the final rate level may be even higher. The survey found that 57% of economists expect the BOJ to raise rates next month, a significant increase from just 5% in July. A smaller minority (10 out of 58) expect the central bank to raise rates again in October or December, bringing the rate to 1.5%. Ayako Fujita, chief economist for Japan at JPMorgan Chase, said, "Since the market has largely priced in a September rate hike, delaying it would likely cause market turmoil, making an earlier policy adjustment inevitable." Looking beyond this year, nearly two-thirds of analysts (35 out of 54) expect the policy rate to reach at least 1.5% by the end of March next year, three months earlier than predicted in the July survey. About 60% of analysts expect the rate to reach at least 1.75% by the end of the third quarter of 2027. Furthermore, regarding the recent rare joint foreign exchange intervention by the US and Japan, more than two-thirds of the respondents (18 out of 26) said that the measures were "not very effective" or "completely ineffective." Many people believe that these measures only delayed the problem rather than truly solving the fundamental issue.US officials: US President Trump still believes that the nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia can only move forward if Saudi Arabia joins the Abraham Accords and recognizes Israel.August 26th - Minutes from the Federal Reserves discount rate meeting released Wednesday morning showed that four of the 12 regional Federal Reserve boards voted in favor of raising the interest rate charged on emergency loans to commercial banks days before the Feds July meeting. The Feds FOMC decided to keep the policy rate unchanged by a 9-3 vote at its July 28-29 meeting, and these recommendations further highlight the internal controversy surrounding this decision. The boards of the Dallas, Cleveland, and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Banks, as well as the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, voted to raise the primary lending rate by 25 basis points. The presidents of the first three regional Fed banks all voted against keeping rates unchanged at the July policy meeting, while Kansas City Fed President Schmid has no voting rights this year. Regional Fed directors are not monetary policy decision-makers and do not determine the Feds interest rates, but they meet regularly with their respective regional Fed presidents. Regional Fed presidents stated that the directors views help shape their own economic and policy outlook. The regional Federal Reserve boards vote on the discount rate at their regular meetings, but the rate is ultimately set by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors to align with the upper limit of the target range for the policy rate. Since December of last year, the target range for the Federal Reserve policy rate has remained between 3.5% and 3.75%.

Forecast for the Gold Price: XAU/USD moves up above $1,850 as yields fall following FOMC minutes

Daniel Rogers

Jan 05, 2023 15:01

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In the late New York session, the gold price (XAU/USD) has attracted buying activity following a corrective move to approach the critical support of $1,850. After failing to sustain above $1,860.00, the precious metal declined; however, the corrective move is light and does not indicate a serious reversal.

 

After a decline in the U.S. Manufacturing PMI bolstered indications of further deceleration in the U.S. Consumer Price Index, market participants' demand for risk-perceived assets such as the S&P 500 increased (CPI). In response to a decrease in product demand, corporations may be compelled to reduce the price of factory items.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell below the 104.00 level as yields on 10-year US Treasuries were subjected to intense pressure and plummeted to roughly 3.69 percent. Safe-haven assets are under pressure due to the anticipation of a further fall in inflationary pressures. After remaining aggressive throughout the entire year, Federal Reserve (Fed) head Jerome Powell changed to a slowing scenario in December regarding an interest rate hike. Undoubtedly, the inflation rate is still a significant distance from the 2% target; yet, the presence of factors that support a further deceleration in the price index weighs on safe-haven assets.