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July 14th - US small business confidence improved in June, but the percentage of business owners who considered inflation the "single most important issue" rose to its highest level in nearly two years, while more businesses reported raising average selling prices. Data released Tuesday by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) showed that the Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.1 points to 97.4 in June, close to the indexs 52-year average of 98.0. The uncertainty index in the survey fell 2 points to 89, but remains significantly higher than the historical average of 68. Improved business confidence and reduced uncertainty may reflect a temporary drop in gasoline prices following the fragile ceasefire reached between the US and Iran. However, the ceasefire broke down last week after attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, triggering military strikes between the two countries. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated, "The current economic environment brings both positive changes for small business owners and ongoing challenges. Lower fuel costs provide welcome relief for both businesses and consumers, and businesses expect the operating environment to improve over the next six months."The European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre reported that a 4.3-magnitude earthquake struck the Sumbah region of Indonesia at a depth of 3.0 kilometers.Syrian Foreign Ministry: Condemns Irans attack on two UAE oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.On July 14th, a breakthrough in power transmission line inspection technology was achieved in the remote mountains of Jianshui County, Honghe Prefecture, Yunnan Province. Drones autonomously inspected power transmission lines directly connected to satellites, even without 4G or 5G signals or ground-based differential positioning assistance. This operation, relying on a self-developed system, successfully established a direct signal channel between the ground station, satellite, and drone, overcoming the challenge of inspection in signal-free areas with practical accuracy. Project leader Li Bingchen explained that this technology breaks the previous limitation that inspection drones had to be connected via remote controllers to fly, enabling autonomous inspection even in signal-free areas. Approximately 4,500 kilometers of power transmission lines in Yunnan are located in mountainous areas without signal coverage; with this technology, at least 90% of these areas can now be automatically inspected by drones.July 14 - On July 14 local time, the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada approved the extension of the state of war and general mobilization order in Ukraine until October 31, 2026.

Forecast for the Gold Price: XAU/USD moves up above $1,850 as yields fall following FOMC minutes

Daniel Rogers

Jan 05, 2023 15:01

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In the late New York session, the gold price (XAU/USD) has attracted buying activity following a corrective move to approach the critical support of $1,850. After failing to sustain above $1,860.00, the precious metal declined; however, the corrective move is light and does not indicate a serious reversal.

 

After a decline in the U.S. Manufacturing PMI bolstered indications of further deceleration in the U.S. Consumer Price Index, market participants' demand for risk-perceived assets such as the S&P 500 increased (CPI). In response to a decrease in product demand, corporations may be compelled to reduce the price of factory items.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell below the 104.00 level as yields on 10-year US Treasuries were subjected to intense pressure and plummeted to roughly 3.69 percent. Safe-haven assets are under pressure due to the anticipation of a further fall in inflationary pressures. After remaining aggressive throughout the entire year, Federal Reserve (Fed) head Jerome Powell changed to a slowing scenario in December regarding an interest rate hike. Undoubtedly, the inflation rate is still a significant distance from the 2% target; yet, the presence of factors that support a further deceleration in the price index weighs on safe-haven assets.