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May 31 - A Bloomberg survey of economists median forecast indicates that the U.S. unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 4.3% in May, while nonfarm payrolls will increase by 89,000. This increase would push the three-month average job growth rate to its highest level in over a year, sparking discussions about a continued acceleration in hiring. Forecasters expect the healthcare sector to maintain its strong momentum, while cyclical sectors such as construction, leisure, and hospitality will also see a recovery, with demand in these sectors likely benefiting from the warm weather of the past month. Manufacturing employment may also be boosted as consumers stockpile goods in anticipation of potential price increases following a potential conflict with Iran.On May 31, according to Iranian state television, Saeed Ajorlou, a member of Irans Media Committee, stated on Saturday that Tehran had not yet approved the final draft of the proposed agreement with the United States, and warned that Iran might withdraw from the agreement if the US failed to fulfill its commitments. In an interview, Ajorlou said that to his knowledge, as of Friday evening, the final text had not been approved, but the differences between the two sides were minimal. He stated, "If the final text is approved, we will enter a 60-day phase of detailed consultations," adding that each of the 14 articles of the agreement contains annexes that require further negotiation. Ajorlou emphasized that the implementation mechanism is more important than the text itself, especially regarding the acquisition of Iranian assets and the fulfillment of commitments by the other side. He stated that the proposed agreement includes a clause allowing Iran to withdraw from the agreement if the other side fails to fulfill its commitments. He indicated that Iran could withdraw from the agreement if violations occur, including breaches of the ceasefire agreement, failure to grant access to Iranian funds, or failure to lift the naval blockade. He added that if commitments are not fulfilled in the initial phase, Iran will reconsider its participation in the proposed 60-day negotiations.The Indian government stated that the current consumption tax rates for gasoline and diesel consumed domestically will remain unchanged.On May 31, local time, Ibrahim Rezaei, spokesman for the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said on May 30 that the naval blockade against Iran “will eventually end, whether through negotiations or military action.”According to the Financial Times, SoftBank has pledged €75 billion to build Europe’s largest artificial intelligence facility in France.

Recession fears and hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve have kept the Euro to Dollar exchange rate near 1.0100

Alina Haynes

Aug 19, 2022 12:07

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After dropping to a new monthly low the previous day, the Euro/U.S. Dollar exchange rate is currently trading at 1.0090 during Friday's sluggish Asian session. A stronger U.S. dollar and bleak domestic economic worries have recently weighed on the key currency pair.

 

The U.S. dollar hit its highest level in a month on Thursday evening, as price-positive data from the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims calmed concerns about a U.S. recession. Weekly unemployment claims declined to 250K from 265K market consensus and 254K revised previously, while the August activity index rose to 6.2 from -5 expected and -12.3 before. Currently sitting at 107.51, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has returned to its monthly high of 107.56.

 

The biggest cause in the DXY's rise was demand for the greenback as a safe haven, but hawkish Fedspeak and economic worries about China and Europe also played a role. To "right-size it," according to Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, the Fed will keep raising interest rates. The policymaker indicated that a move of 50 basis points or 75 basis points would be acceptable for the September rate decision. But Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve reportedly does not think a recession is happening in the country at the moment. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and self-proclaimed "lifelong hawk" James Bullard is considering a further rate hike of 75 basis points in September.

 

After seeing the present increase in the covid population, Goldman Sachs and Nomura lowered their growth predictions for the dragon kingdom. There is a negative impact on the Chinese economy from skepticism about the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) ability to deal with recessionary problems. U.S. Trade Representative comments that "Early this fall, the United States and Taiwan will begin official negotiations on a trade initiative" tend to rekindle concerns of an escalation between the U.S. and China and disturb the mood.

 

According to a report by Reuters, the German Finance Ministry said in its monthly report for August, "The economic picture for Germany, Europe's largest economy, is dismal due to rising energy prices and interruptions in the supply chain."

 

ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said on Thursday, "Recession alone would not be adequate to control inflation." The policymaker also backed the regional central bank's current stance. According to Bloomberg, on Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said, "the ECB will continue to boost interest rates to battle inflation."

 

As US 10-year Treasury rates fell from their monthly high to 2.875% as of press time, the stock market ended the day flat and S&P 500 Futures were limited.

 

Future German PPI for July is forecasted at 32% YoY, down from 32.7% before. Quantitative indicators of enhanced trade-related decision-making, however, will be given considerable weight.


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