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February 4th - Data shows that the Eurozone economy slowed for the second consecutive month in January, with demand nearly stagnant and hiring halted, leaving the start of 2026 still fragile. The Eurozones composite PMI fell to 51.3 in January from 51.5 in December, hitting a four-month low and also below the initial reading of 51.5. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Commerzbank Hamburg, stated, "The growth trajectory can be described as acceptable, but the situation remains challenging. Companies made almost no new hires in January. The lack of growth in new business also indicates that the recovery in this sector remains fragile." The overall slowdown was primarily driven by the services sector, where activity expanded at its slowest pace since September, offsetting the renewed expansion in manufacturing output. The services business activity index fell to 51.6 from 52.4 in December. Despite the slowdown, business confidence rose to its highest level since May 2024. de la Rubia added, "The ECB is not currently particularly concerned about inflation, but the significant rise in service sector cost inflation as shown by the PMI, along with the marked increase in sales price inflation, will still put some pressure on officials."The German Engineering Federation reiterated its forecast that production will grow by 1% in 2026.The Eurozones final services PMI for January was 51.6, below the expected 51.9 and the previous reading of 51.9.The final reading of the Eurozone Composite PMI for January was 51.3, below the expected 51.5 and the previous reading of 51.5.The Ukrainian delegation arrived in Abu Dhabi on the 4th local time.

Despite caution, EUR/USD continues bids above 1.0250

Daniel Rogers

Aug 15, 2022 14:55

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After the US sent a delegation to Taiwan over the weekend, despite House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's contentious visit to the disputed island, which enraged Beijing, investors sought protection in government bonds and the dollar in the face of rising US-China threats.

 

Rates are also heavily influenced by the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) in September as a result of easing US inflation pressures, with all eyes on the FOMC minutes due out on Wednesday for new information on the direction the world's most potent central bank will take its policy.

 

Despite a decline in rates and a sluggish demand for riskier assets in early Asian trades, the US dollar is holding up well. The US dollar index is trading at 105.61, unchanged from its previous close of 105.88 on Friday. Despite Wall Street's stellar performance, a substantial dollar increase was caused by stronger US Michigan Consumer Sentiment data and a dimming US inflation forecast.

 

As the European energy crisis gets worse, the gains in the common currency on the EUR side of the equation are likely to remain small. Germany is already suffering the most as a result of a decrease in Russian gas exports, which is wreaking havoc on the old continent. The Rhine's ebbing waters, which make transport along the river more challenging, could cause a recession in Germany.

 

By the end of the week, the reference level was predicted to drop below 40 centimeters in Kaub, a notorious shipping bottleneck where the Rhine flows shallow and narrow. One of the most significant goods shipped on the waterway is coal.

 

On both sides of the Atlantic, Monday's economic calendar features few noteworthy data releases. As a result, the main currency pair will continue to be influenced by the current market sentiment and dollar price action.

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