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German Retail Federation (HDE): The German retail industry is projected to achieve 2% revenue growth by 2026.February 2nd - A closely watched indicator of the health of the UK manufacturing sector rose to its highest level since August 2024 in January, as new orders saw their largest increase in nearly four years, further confirming signs of recovery in the sector. The final manufacturing PMI rose to 51.8 in January, up from 50.6 in December and slightly above the preliminary reading of 51.6. The new orders sub-index jumped to 53.2 from 50.2, its highest level since February 2022, mainly driven by the first increase in export orders in four years. Rob Dobson, head of global market intelligence at S&P, said: "The UK manufacturing sector has had a solid start to 2026, demonstrating encouraging resilience. Business confidence has also rebounded positively, reaching its highest level since before the autumn 2024 budget." The data also showed that manufacturing employment continued to decline, but at the smallest rate since Reeves raised the employment tax in October 2024, while business input costs rose by the largest amount since August 2025.The UKs final manufacturing PMI for January was 51.8, below the expected 51.6 and the previous reading of 51.6.February 2nd - In a report, Neuberger Berman portfolio manager Patrick Barbe stated that the European bond market has entered a phase drastically different from the past decade, characterized by a steeper yield curve. A steeper yield curve refers to the widening spread between long-term and short-term bond yields. "This steeper yield curve once again provides clear compensation for holding period and duration risk, compensation that had largely disappeared over the past decade," he said. Currently, the yield on two-year Eurozone bonds is slightly above 2%, the yield on 10-year German bonds is 2.837%, and the yield on 10-year French bonds is 3.424%. The yields on 30-year German and French bonds are 3.485% and 4.364%, respectively.Data shows that Teslas new car registrations in Denmark increased by 2.7% year-on-year in January.

Despite caution, EUR/USD continues bids above 1.0250

Daniel Rogers

Aug 15, 2022 14:55

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After the US sent a delegation to Taiwan over the weekend, despite House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's contentious visit to the disputed island, which enraged Beijing, investors sought protection in government bonds and the dollar in the face of rising US-China threats.

 

Rates are also heavily influenced by the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) in September as a result of easing US inflation pressures, with all eyes on the FOMC minutes due out on Wednesday for new information on the direction the world's most potent central bank will take its policy.

 

Despite a decline in rates and a sluggish demand for riskier assets in early Asian trades, the US dollar is holding up well. The US dollar index is trading at 105.61, unchanged from its previous close of 105.88 on Friday. Despite Wall Street's stellar performance, a substantial dollar increase was caused by stronger US Michigan Consumer Sentiment data and a dimming US inflation forecast.

 

As the European energy crisis gets worse, the gains in the common currency on the EUR side of the equation are likely to remain small. Germany is already suffering the most as a result of a decrease in Russian gas exports, which is wreaking havoc on the old continent. The Rhine's ebbing waters, which make transport along the river more challenging, could cause a recession in Germany.

 

By the end of the week, the reference level was predicted to drop below 40 centimeters in Kaub, a notorious shipping bottleneck where the Rhine flows shallow and narrow. One of the most significant goods shipped on the waterway is coal.

 

On both sides of the Atlantic, Monday's economic calendar features few noteworthy data releases. As a result, the main currency pair will continue to be influenced by the current market sentiment and dollar price action.

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