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U.S. sources say that U.S. Marines opened fire on protesters at the U.S. consulate in Karachi, Pakistan, last Sunday.Futures analyst Guangda Futures reports: On March 2nd, COMEX gold opened higher and trended upwards, before a sharp sell-off at the close, ending slightly higher at $5335.9 per ounce, a gain of 1.68%. Domestic SHFE gold opened higher but then fell in the night session, closing at 1184.90 yuan per gram, a gain of 1.14%. 1. Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday showed that the US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 52.4 in February, expanding for the second consecutive month, but the input price index surged to 70.5, a near four-year high. Its worth noting that this data reflects market conditions prior to the US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran this weekend. Afterwards, tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz nearly ceased, and international oil prices recorded their largest single-day increase since the Russia-Ukraine war in early 2022 on Monday, meaning that price pressure may continue to rise. Given that tariffs and geopolitical conflicts are creating a persistent undercurrent of inflation, manufacturers may be forced to pass on costs to consumers, squeezing the Federal Reserves room for interest rate cuts. Last night, the US dollar index rose by more than 1%, and precious metals rose and then fell back. 2. Geopolitically, the US-Iran conflict escalated rapidly over the weekend. The joint US-Israel assassination attempt plunged Iran into regime chaos, unexpectedly reigniting geopolitical risks and initially reflecting some safe-haven demand. However, as the conflict progressed, the market gradually withdrew from this safe-haven panic, shifting towards concerns about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a rebound in oil prices due to disruptions in oil production facilities, and renewed expectations of global inflation. This had a mixed impact on gold. Inflation expectations are generally favorable for gold prices, but the expectation of a Fed rate cut and further easing has been further delayed. Investors should continue to closely monitor the US-Iran situation. Whether the conflict slows down or escalates further will determine the subsequent trend of gold prices. Strategically, timing is more important than directional choice; avoid chasing highs excessively. (This content and opinion are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.)Japans energy minister stated that the suspension of Qatars liquefied natural gas (LNG) operations will not immediately affect the countrys energy supply.The main Shanghai silver futures contract plunged in the short term, falling more than 4.00% intraday, and is currently trading at 22,888.00 yuan/kg.March 3 - Oil prices rose in early Asian trading due to the ongoing Middle East conflict and the persistent high risk of supply disruptions. Kerstin Hottner, head of commodities at Vontobel, stated, "The ongoing military conflict between the US/Israel and Iran has caused turmoil in the global energy market. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint for global energy trade, has effectively ceased operation due to the conflict. As the situation develops, the duration and intensity of the conflict will be key factors shaping the energy landscape in the short term."

Despite caution, EUR/USD continues bids above 1.0250

Daniel Rogers

Aug 15, 2022 14:55

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After the US sent a delegation to Taiwan over the weekend, despite House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's contentious visit to the disputed island, which enraged Beijing, investors sought protection in government bonds and the dollar in the face of rising US-China threats.

 

Rates are also heavily influenced by the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) in September as a result of easing US inflation pressures, with all eyes on the FOMC minutes due out on Wednesday for new information on the direction the world's most potent central bank will take its policy.

 

Despite a decline in rates and a sluggish demand for riskier assets in early Asian trades, the US dollar is holding up well. The US dollar index is trading at 105.61, unchanged from its previous close of 105.88 on Friday. Despite Wall Street's stellar performance, a substantial dollar increase was caused by stronger US Michigan Consumer Sentiment data and a dimming US inflation forecast.

 

As the European energy crisis gets worse, the gains in the common currency on the EUR side of the equation are likely to remain small. Germany is already suffering the most as a result of a decrease in Russian gas exports, which is wreaking havoc on the old continent. The Rhine's ebbing waters, which make transport along the river more challenging, could cause a recession in Germany.

 

By the end of the week, the reference level was predicted to drop below 40 centimeters in Kaub, a notorious shipping bottleneck where the Rhine flows shallow and narrow. One of the most significant goods shipped on the waterway is coal.

 

On both sides of the Atlantic, Monday's economic calendar features few noteworthy data releases. As a result, the main currency pair will continue to be influenced by the current market sentiment and dollar price action.

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