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On June 30th, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated that the ECBs 25-basis-point interest rate hike in June was not a "precautionary" move to guard against future inflation risks, but rather a "prudent decision" based on the economic and inflation situation at the time. She stated that if the rate hike had not been implemented, inflation would have remained above the 2% target in 2027 and 2028, and new circumstances since the June meeting, including the decline in oil prices, have not changed the ECBs initial assessment. Lagarde emphasized that the ECB now has a more comprehensive system of data, indicators, and forecasts, and monetary policy will adhere to the principle of "data-driven, meeting-by-meeting decision-making," rather than relying on forward guidance. She also pointed out that in the current market environment, financial conditions often adjust themselves based on economic data, allowing monetary policy to take effect before formal decisions are made, giving the ECB more time to assess changes in the situation.European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: We can continue to raise interest rates without worrying that monetary policy tightening itself will become a source of financial stress.European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: In times of uncertainty, forward guidance loses its value.European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: We face the prospect of rising overall and core inflation.European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: The sustainability of the US-Iran peace agreement is far from guaranteed.

NZD/USD Price Analysis: Protects NZ Inflation-Induced Support Break; 0.6140 in Sight

Daniel Rogers

Apr 20, 2023 13:51

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During the mid-Asian session on Thursday, NZD/USD bears maintain control at the lowest levels in five weeks while defending New Zealand (NZ) losses caused by inflation near 0.6160. This justifies not only the weaker-than-anticipated New Zealand inflation, but also the recent break of one-month-old horizontal support, which is now immediate resistance, as well as the bearish MACD signals.

 

As measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy purists were unpleasantly surprised by New Zealand's (NZ) first-quarter (Q1) inflation. Despite this, the Quarter-over-Quarter change in the New Zealand Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreases from 1.7% and 1.4%, respectively, to 1.2%.

 

Following the publication of disappointing data, the NZD/USD pair breached a one-month-old horizontal support level, which is now acting as a barrier near 0.6170. The bearish MACD signals are now directing NZD/USD traders toward a horizontal support level that has been in place for 1.5 months and is located near 0.6140.

 

If the NZD/USD bears remain dominant above 0.6140, the 2023 low of 0.6085 cannot be ruled out.

 

The 200-day simple moving average hurdle of 0.6220 becomes crucial for NZD/USD investors to return.

 

If the NZD/USD pair remains above 0.6220, a run up to the previous weekly high around 0.6315 and then to the monthly high of 0.6386 cannot be ruled out.


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