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On July 2nd, Evercore ISI stated, "Employment data has returned to normal, and the Fed will remain focused on inflation." Economists believe the Fed will view the weak June employment data as a return to normal levels after several months of unexpectedly strong hiring growth. They stated, "Some believe this report significantly reduces the likelihood of a rate hike this year. We dont entirely agree with that view." Santander analyst Stephen Stanley echoed this sentiment. He stated, "Inflation data will determine the Feds course of action." He believes the June employment report may "slightly" alter the views of Fed officials, but he expects most policymakers to still view the labor market as stable. "There has been a considerable overreaction in financial markets, including downgrading the likelihood of a rate hike this year. I think the latter is an inappropriate reaction to this report."July 2nd - A source familiar with the matter stated that Kuwaits crude oil production rose to 1.65 million barrels per day in June, far exceeding the May average of 578,000 barrels per day. The source added that in the last 10 days of June, daily production reached as high as 1.9 million barrels.On Thursday, July 2nd, the German DAX 30 index closed up 529.08 points, or 2.11%, at 25,598.19; the UK FTSE 100 index closed up 181.73 points, or 1.73%, at 10,660.07; the French CAC 40 index closed up 137.57 points, or 1.65%, at 8,474.86; the Euro Stoxx 50 index closed up 84.55 points, or 1.35%, at 6,367.05; the Spanish IBEX 35 index closed up 277.54 points, or 1.43%, at 19,684.14; and the Italian FTSE MIB index closed up 847.94 points, or 1.64%, at 52,452.50.July 2nd, Futures News: According to foreign media reports: 1. Industry Expectations: Toby Rice, CEO of EQT Corp, a top US natural gas producer, stated that natural gas is expected to cross the threshold in the coming years, significantly outpacing oil by 2030, thus ending oils dominance since 1950. 2. Energy Consumption and Demand Comparison: A report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that natural gas will account for 36% of US energy consumption in 2025, just slightly lower than oils 37%. The EIA projects that between 2025 and 2027, US oil demand will rise by 0.6%, while natural gas demand will grow significantly by 3.4%, further narrowing the gap. 3. Power Generation and Coal Replacement: EIA data shows that over 40% of the electricity in the US power grid comes from natural gas-fired power plants. From 2011 to 2020, over 100 coal-fired power plants were replaced or retrofitted with natural gas generators. 4. LNG and New Energy Data: Shell predicts that by 2035, US feedstock gas used in LNG plants will account for 23% of total US natural gas production. In addition, EIA data shows that from 2015 to 2025, the use of wind and solar energy will more than triple, while the use of natural gas will increase by 23%.US Treasury auction for the 8 weeks ending July 2 - bid-to-cover ratio 2.7, previous value 2.79.

NZD/USD Price Analysis: Protects NZ Inflation-Induced Support Break; 0.6140 in Sight

Daniel Rogers

Apr 20, 2023 13:51

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During the mid-Asian session on Thursday, NZD/USD bears maintain control at the lowest levels in five weeks while defending New Zealand (NZ) losses caused by inflation near 0.6160. This justifies not only the weaker-than-anticipated New Zealand inflation, but also the recent break of one-month-old horizontal support, which is now immediate resistance, as well as the bearish MACD signals.

 

As measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy purists were unpleasantly surprised by New Zealand's (NZ) first-quarter (Q1) inflation. Despite this, the Quarter-over-Quarter change in the New Zealand Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreases from 1.7% and 1.4%, respectively, to 1.2%.

 

Following the publication of disappointing data, the NZD/USD pair breached a one-month-old horizontal support level, which is now acting as a barrier near 0.6170. The bearish MACD signals are now directing NZD/USD traders toward a horizontal support level that has been in place for 1.5 months and is located near 0.6140.

 

If the NZD/USD bears remain dominant above 0.6140, the 2023 low of 0.6085 cannot be ruled out.

 

The 200-day simple moving average hurdle of 0.6220 becomes crucial for NZD/USD investors to return.

 

If the NZD/USD pair remains above 0.6220, a run up to the previous weekly high around 0.6315 and then to the monthly high of 0.6386 cannot be ruled out.