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On September 22, Federal Reserve Chairman Mohamed Mussaleem stated on Monday that the Fed may need to further raise interest rates to curb inflation due to strong demand and the impact of commodity prices extending beyond the oil sector. He emphasized that the Fed should act sooner rather than later. Mussaleem stated, “Persistent demand and recurring supply pressures continue to exacerbate inflation risks. I believe that without further policy measures to curb inflation, it is likely that in 18 months, inflation will be significantly higher than our 2% target, rather than reaching it. I believe policy must impose meaningful constraints on inflation. This would allow the Fed to achieve its inflation target in about a year and a half, thus allowing time for tightening to have an impact on the economy.” He added, “Earlier, gradual tightening is more appropriate and less shocking to the economy than later, larger, and potentially more abrupt policy moves.” Mussaleem pointed out that inflation “is not a risk; it already exists,” and even after excluding the effects of oil and other supply-related factors, the underlying inflation rate could still be several percentage points higher than the Fed’s target and is “heading in the wrong direction.”Federal Reserves Mussalim: Business contacts indicated they plan to raise prices to "close to 3%".Federal Reserve Chairman Mossallem: Rate hikes are best done "earlier and gradually," rather than "delayed and drastic."Federal Reserves Mussalim: The labor market remains stable near full employment and is not a source of inflationary pressures.Federal Reserves Mussalim: Interest rates may need to rise further to curb demand- and supply-driven inflation.

NZD/USD Price Analysis: Protects NZ Inflation-Induced Support Break; 0.6140 in Sight

Daniel Rogers

Apr 20, 2023 13:51

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During the mid-Asian session on Thursday, NZD/USD bears maintain control at the lowest levels in five weeks while defending New Zealand (NZ) losses caused by inflation near 0.6160. This justifies not only the weaker-than-anticipated New Zealand inflation, but also the recent break of one-month-old horizontal support, which is now immediate resistance, as well as the bearish MACD signals.

 

As measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy purists were unpleasantly surprised by New Zealand's (NZ) first-quarter (Q1) inflation. Despite this, the Quarter-over-Quarter change in the New Zealand Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreases from 1.7% and 1.4%, respectively, to 1.2%.

 

Following the publication of disappointing data, the NZD/USD pair breached a one-month-old horizontal support level, which is now acting as a barrier near 0.6170. The bearish MACD signals are now directing NZD/USD traders toward a horizontal support level that has been in place for 1.5 months and is located near 0.6140.

 

If the NZD/USD bears remain dominant above 0.6140, the 2023 low of 0.6085 cannot be ruled out.

 

The 200-day simple moving average hurdle of 0.6220 becomes crucial for NZD/USD investors to return.

 

If the NZD/USD pair remains above 0.6220, a run up to the previous weekly high around 0.6315 and then to the monthly high of 0.6386 cannot be ruled out.