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August 27th - According to a summary of meeting minutes, European Central Bank (ECB) officials discussed whether a "moderately restrictive" monetary policy was needed to ensure inflation falls back to the 2% target. The minutes indicate that some officials would have supported last months interest rate hike. However, the minutes noted that given the high degree of uncertainty regarding the sustainability of inflation, "all members were willing to support the decision to maintain the policy rate unchanged." Currently, Eurozone inflation is hovering around 3%, well above the ECBs 2% target, while economic growth is stronger than expected.Federal Reserves Goolsby: Tariffs and war-related price increases pose challenges to the Federal Reserve.In a joint statement, Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, and Sweden stated that the new common EU loan is not a solution to the budget deficit. 1. According to Mysteel statistics, as of this week (August 27), the spot inventory of lithium ore from 33 sample lithium ore traders was 149,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to last week, of which the available inventory was 102,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons compared to last week. 2. According to Longzhong Informations production cost calculation model, the average weekly profit for float glass using natural gas as fuel was -164.02 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.50 yuan/ton compared to last week; the average weekly profit for float glass using coal as fuel was -87.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.47 yuan/ton compared to last week; and the average weekly profit for float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was -216.26 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.64 yuan/ton compared to last week. 3. According to Mutian Technology, on August 23, affected by the heavy rainfall of Typhoon Zitan, the sugarcane area under the jurisdiction of Daxin Sugar Company suffered from flooding, with some sugarcane fields submerged and sugarcane lodging and other damage. 4. Market news: Russia has indicated it may retaliate against the UK for its support of Kyiv, targeting British military objectives both inside and outside Ukraine. 5. Zhang Wenbin, Head of China Market Development at the World Platinum Investment Council, believes the logic of a long-term platinum supply shortage remains unchanged. Considering limited new mining capacity and resilient demand throughout 2026, the market will still face a supply-demand gap of 9.2 tons. Global visible platinum inventories are at historically low levels. Before 2029, platinum will maintain an average annual supply-demand gap of approximately 19 tons. 6. Data from Enterprise Singapore (ESG) shows that as of the week ending August 26, Singapore fuel oil inventories rose by 817,000 barrels to a three-week high of 19.24 million barrels. Singapore light distillate inventories rose by 539,000 barrels to a two-week high of 11.515 million barrels. Singapore middle distillate inventories increased by 153,000 barrels to a two-week high of 8.427 million barrels. 7. According to CCTV News, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian hosted a regular press conference. A reporter asked about high-level interactions between China and the US. Lin Jian responded that both sides are maintaining communication regarding arrangements for interactions between their leaders this year. 8. At a regular press conference held on the 27th, Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Huang Ling, in response to a question about the US government considering imposing an additional 7.5% tariff on goods imported from China, said that the USs initiation of Section 301 investigations against 16 economies, including China, under the pretext of "overcapacity," politicizes trade issues and is a typical example of unilateralism and protectionism, which China firmly opposes. We will continue to closely monitor and comprehensively assess subsequent US actions and reserve the right to take all necessary measures. 9. According to Longzhong Information, as of August 27, 2026, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide was 74.049 million weight boxes, a decrease of 365,000 weight boxes compared to the previous period (-0.49%), and an increase of 18.35% year-on-year. The inventory days were 33.9 days, a decrease of 0.2 days compared to the previous period. 10. According to Mysteel, as of the week ending August 27, rebar production was 1.7308 million tons, a decrease of 73,000 tons from the previous week, a drop of 4.05%; rebar mill inventory was 1.6333 million tons, a decrease of 148,200 tons from the previous week, a drop of 8.32%; rebar social inventory was 5.1132 million tons, an increase of 66,200 tons from the previous week, an increase of 1.31%; and rebar apparent demand was 1.8128 million tons, a decrease of 148,800 tons from the previous week, a drop of 7.59%. 11. According to foreign media reports, traders said that approximately 7 to 8 million barrels of oil are currently being shipped out of the Strait of Hormuz daily, higher than the approximately 4 million barrels per day in mid-July, equivalent to about three-quarters of pre-war levels. Vortexa stated on Monday that oil flows through the waterway are approaching 10 million barrels per day. 12. As of August 27, methanol inventory at East China ports was 381,400 tons, down from 382,700 tons on August 20, a decrease of 1,300 tons. 13. Federal Reserve Chairman Schmid stated that with inflation persistently above the Feds 2% target, the current interest rate level has not dampened the US economy. Schmid said, "For me, I think short-term interest rates are probably on the loose side. So, we still have work to do."Federal Reserves Goolsby: We are trying to figure out whether the inflation shock will continue.

NZD/USD Price Analysis: Protects NZ Inflation-Induced Support Break; 0.6140 in Sight

Daniel Rogers

Apr 20, 2023 13:51

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During the mid-Asian session on Thursday, NZD/USD bears maintain control at the lowest levels in five weeks while defending New Zealand (NZ) losses caused by inflation near 0.6160. This justifies not only the weaker-than-anticipated New Zealand inflation, but also the recent break of one-month-old horizontal support, which is now immediate resistance, as well as the bearish MACD signals.

 

As measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy purists were unpleasantly surprised by New Zealand's (NZ) first-quarter (Q1) inflation. Despite this, the Quarter-over-Quarter change in the New Zealand Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreases from 1.7% and 1.4%, respectively, to 1.2%.

 

Following the publication of disappointing data, the NZD/USD pair breached a one-month-old horizontal support level, which is now acting as a barrier near 0.6170. The bearish MACD signals are now directing NZD/USD traders toward a horizontal support level that has been in place for 1.5 months and is located near 0.6140.

 

If the NZD/USD bears remain dominant above 0.6140, the 2023 low of 0.6085 cannot be ruled out.

 

The 200-day simple moving average hurdle of 0.6220 becomes crucial for NZD/USD investors to return.

 

If the NZD/USD pair remains above 0.6220, a run up to the previous weekly high around 0.6315 and then to the monthly high of 0.6386 cannot be ruled out.