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Market news: NEC, Anthropic, and Japanese financial institutions will collaborate on an artificial intelligence project.Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: On June 10th, COMEX gold prices plummeted, approaching 4000 points, closing at $4094.1 per ounce, a drop of 4.49%. Domestic SHFE gold opened lower and continued to decline, breaking below 900 points, closing at 892.58 yuan per gram, a drop of 4.11%. 1. On Wednesday evening, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.2% year-on-year in May, the largest increase since April 2023, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 2.9% year-on-year. Although the CPI report suggested that the oil price shock had not yet spread to broader economic sectors, mainly remaining confined to the transportation industry, providing more justification for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged until 2027, the market still bet on a Fed rate hike in October after the CPI data release, putting continued pressure on gold prices. 2. Geopolitically, Trumps dissatisfaction with the slow progress of US-Iran negotiations, threatening a "very strong" attack on Iranian infrastructure, has fueled renewed market concerns about a potential escalation of the conflict. This renewed geopolitical tension, coupled with expectations of a Fed rate hike, has dealt a double blow to gold, causing prices to fall rapidly again. However, the unusually weak performance of US stocks may force the Fed to be more cautious in its monetary policy rhetoric. With the Feds interest rate meeting next week, the market anticipates a hawkish stance that could further suppress gold prices. However, its also important to watch for unusual "buy the rumor, sell the fact" volatility in gold prices before and after the meeting.On June 11, in response to the critical issue that my countrys mainstream monitoring equipment and core methods for greenhouse gas monitoring and measurement have long relied on foreign technologies, making it difficult to achieve independent and accurate quality control of carbon emission monitoring data at the national, regional, and industry levels, the State Administration for Market Regulation organized leading domestic scientific and technological forces to carry out key technology research on integrated space-air-ground greenhouse gas concentration monitoring, emission inversion algorithms, and monitoring equipment. They successfully broke through the core technology of high-resolution domestic satellite CO2 and CH4 column concentration and emission inversion, breaking the foreign technological monopoly in the field of mesoscale CO2 flux detection lidar concentration and wind field synchronous detection.The Kuwaiti Civil Aviation Authority announced that flights suspended due to the Iranian attacks have resumed.June 11 – Peakfly Aviation announced today that its V2000CG Kerry-class aircraft has officially received its Validated Type Certificate (VTC) from the Indonesian Civil Aviation Authority (DGCA), becoming the worlds first eVTOL aircraft to receive overseas type approval. As the only eVTOL aircraft of tonnage and above to receive all three airworthiness certificates issued by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), the V2000CGs acquisition of the Indonesian VTC indicates that its design meets both the airworthiness standards of its country of origin (China) and the airworthiness requirements of its importing country (Indonesia), providing the prerequisites for the V2000CG to commence commercial operations in the "Land of a Thousand Islands."

When Will the Australian Consumer Price Index Be Released and How Will It Affect the AUD/USD?

Daniel Rogers

Apr 27, 2022 09:54

Today, at 0130 GMT, Australia's important first quarter Consumer Price Index data will be released. The Australian central bank has abandoned its patient attitude and declared that monetary policy will be data-driven. Quarterly inflation in Australia is projected to exceed the RBA's objective at the top end.

 

Westpac analysts stated that "given the conclusion of grants, the spike in house purchase prices is projected to play a significant influence."

 

"Automotive gasoline and food prices are also anticipated to play a significant role."

 

Westpac anticipates a 2.0 percent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 4.9 percent year-on-year (YoY) increase in the headline CPI (market median 1.7 percent and 4.6 percent ).

 

"Continued disruptions to supply chains and the persistent strength of domestic demand imply more widespread inflationary pressures," the analysts wrote. "This supports a 1.2 percent QoQ (3.4 percent YoY) increase in the trimmed mean measure (in line with the median).

 

According to NAB analysts, they anticipate a 1.2 percent quarter-on-quarter increase in the trimmed mean and a 3.4 percent year-on-year increase in the trimmed mean. 3.4 percent as a post-2009 high, much over the RBA's 2-3 percent target range.

 

Meanwhile, ANZ Bank analysts forecast Australian Q1 headline inflation of 1.8 percent quarter on quarter, bringing annual inflation to 4.7 percent - the highest level since the September quarter of 2008.

 

"The increase is not just due to increasing gasoline and food prices," the researchers observed. 'Adjusted mean inflation is estimated to be 1.1 percent quarter on quarter and 3.4 percent year on year. This will be the first time since Q1 2010 that core inflation will exceed the top of the RBA's target zone."

 

"Despite this, we continue to expect the RBA to wait until June before raising the cash rate target, with the April meeting minutes indicating that the board would prefer to see both inflation and wage data before making a decision."

How Might CPI Affect the AUD/USD Exchange Rate?

Although the AUD/USD pair is technically bearish, positive inflation data could spark a recovery. The AUD/USD pair did not perform well overnight and was locked below an hourly barrier, sliding to the south on the strength of the US dollar.

 

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However, the daily chart indicates that the price may be due for a correction, and the above analysis highlights the upside structure target areas for a retracement. A positive surprise in the data would almost certainly support the thesis and energise the bulls. If, on the other hand, the data fails to solidify the RBA's prospects for a near-term rate hike, the Aussie is projected to come under pressure and break through the barriers for a test of 0.71 before the 0.7080/90 early February 2022 areas.

Concerning the CPI

The Consumer Price Index, which is published by the Reserve Bank of Australia and republished by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, is a measure of price changes calculated by comparing the retail prices of a representative basket of goods and services. Inflation drags down the purchasing power of the AUD. The CPI is a critical indicator for determining inflation and changes in consumer spending trends. A positive (or bullish) value for the AUD is considered positive, while a negative reading is considered bad (or Bearish).


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