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The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the week ending September 5 was 206,000, compared with expectations of 205,000 and a revised figure of 207,000 for the previous week.On September 10th, North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), a Venezuelan oil driller backed by the Trump administration, plans to more than double its crude oil production in just over two years. NABEP aims to increase its daily production from the current approximately 200,000 barrels to 500,000 barrels by the end of 2028. The company stated that supply growth has so far been funded by internal cash flow, and any external investment would help accelerate growth. NABEP has gained prominence in recent weeks following the Trump administrations signing of what it calls the largest oil deal in world history. Under the terms of the agreement, NABEP received 100-year concessions to exploit 17 oil fields with estimated proven reserves of 65 billion barrels. The company stated that the agreement with the U.S. government simply accelerates the trajectory of NABEPs growth plans.The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell further to 0.5%.On September 10th, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates for the second time since the start of the war with Iran in February, in response to signals that inflation would well exceed 2%. On Thursday, the deposit rate was raised by 25 basis points to 2.5%, in line with the forecasts of almost all economists surveyed. The ECB reiterated that it would not pre-commit to further action, but would decide on a case-by-case basis based on data. In its statement, it said: "The conflict in the Middle East continues to exert inflationary pressures, and inflation will remain well above target for an extended period. The outlook remains highly uncertain, with upside risks to inflation and downside risks to economic growth." Thursdays move puts Eurozone policymakers further ahead of their peers in addressing soaring energy prices—which have caused the fastest inflation in nearly three years. Traders believe the ECB will take further action, expecting two more rate hikes by mid-2027. This contrasts with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which have not yet tightened monetary policy due to the Middle East conflict and are likely to remain on hold next week.Eurozone government bond yields rose after the European Central Bank raised interest rates.

Eyes AUD/JPY 94.00 Prior to the release of China's GDP, the focus shifts to the RBA Minutes.

Larissa Barlow

Apr 18, 2022 09:43

The AUD/JPY pair is trading in a narrow range of 92.82-93.90 as investors anticipate the publication of China's National Bureau of Statistics' Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures in Asia. The cross has been heading higher for an extended period, despite broader yen weakening.

 

It's worth mentioning that Australia is the world's largest exporter to China, and its better GDP figures will benefit the Australian dollar. The market consensus for China's annual GDP is 4.4 percent for the first quarter of CY22, down from 4% previously, while a preliminary estimate for China's annual industrial production is 4.5 percent, down dramatically from the previous number of 7.5 percent.

 

This week's big event will be the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) April monetary policy minutes. The minutes of the RBA will detail the mathematics underlying RBA Governor Philip Lowe's neutral stance. Additionally, information about Australian inflation will assist market participants in fine-tuning their strategies. Meanwhile, according to Reuters, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is anticipated to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy despite an upward revision to inflation expectations. Additionally, the agency claimed that the BOJ is projected to lift its fiscal 2022 inflation prediction to above 1.5 percent from the current 1.1 percent in April, while lowering its fiscal 2022 growth forecast from the current 3.8 percent.

AUD/JPY

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