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The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the week ending September 5 was 206,000, compared with expectations of 205,000 and a revised figure of 207,000 for the previous week.On September 10th, North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), a Venezuelan oil driller backed by the Trump administration, plans to more than double its crude oil production in just over two years. NABEP aims to increase its daily production from the current approximately 200,000 barrels to 500,000 barrels by the end of 2028. The company stated that supply growth has so far been funded by internal cash flow, and any external investment would help accelerate growth. NABEP has gained prominence in recent weeks following the Trump administrations signing of what it calls the largest oil deal in world history. Under the terms of the agreement, NABEP received 100-year concessions to exploit 17 oil fields with estimated proven reserves of 65 billion barrels. The company stated that the agreement with the U.S. government simply accelerates the trajectory of NABEPs growth plans.The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell further to 0.5%.On September 10th, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates for the second time since the start of the war with Iran in February, in response to signals that inflation would well exceed 2%. On Thursday, the deposit rate was raised by 25 basis points to 2.5%, in line with the forecasts of almost all economists surveyed. The ECB reiterated that it would not pre-commit to further action, but would decide on a case-by-case basis based on data. In its statement, it said: "The conflict in the Middle East continues to exert inflationary pressures, and inflation will remain well above target for an extended period. The outlook remains highly uncertain, with upside risks to inflation and downside risks to economic growth." Thursdays move puts Eurozone policymakers further ahead of their peers in addressing soaring energy prices—which have caused the fastest inflation in nearly three years. Traders believe the ECB will take further action, expecting two more rate hikes by mid-2027. This contrasts with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which have not yet tightened monetary policy due to the Middle East conflict and are likely to remain on hold next week.Eurozone government bond yields rose after the European Central Bank raised interest rates.

USD/CAD Approaches Exhaustion at 1.2830 as Oil Rebounds; BOC's Macklem Comes Under Fire

Alina Haynes

Apr 27, 2022 09:59

The USD/CAD pair is showing symptoms of weariness following a mammoth rally from last week's low of 1.2458. The asset has been climbing upward as safe-haven assets have been bolstered by negative market sentiment. While exhaustion signals at monthly highs of 1.2830 may be associated with a more robust recovery in oil prices.

 

China's pledge to strengthen its economy through conservative monetary policy has given oil prices a boost. Increased liquidity in the economy to boost demand will restore normalcy to oil requirements. The price of oil has recaptured the $100.00 level. The black gold was underperforming as the Covid-19 pandemic spread from Shanghai to Beijing, reigniting fears of a slide in China's aggregate demand. Additionally, the Beijing mass testing was used to call for severe lockdown measures.

 

It's worth mentioning that China is the world's largest oil importer, and any concerns about the dragon economy's oil demand might have a significant impact on oil prices. Additionally, Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States, and rising oil prices result in increased capital inflows into the loonie area.

 

Investors' attention will now turn to Tuesday's speech by Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Tiff Macklem. Additionally, the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) number for the third quarter will be released on the same day, and is predicted to decline to 7.2 percent.

USD/CAD

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