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The number of rate cuts this year is expected to increase. 1. JPMorgan Chase: The updated dot plot indicates room for three rate cuts this year, one more than the June dot plot. 2. Deutsche Bank: The updated dot plot median may indicate a total of 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, 25 basis points more than the June forecast. 3. Barclays: The dot plot indicates three rate cuts this year, one each in 2026 and 2027, while the median long-term rate forecast remains unchanged at 3.0%. 4. Bank of Montreal: The median rate forecast for the end of 2025 is expected to be lowered to reflect the possibility of 25 basis point cuts at both the October and December meetings. The dot plot remains unchanged from June. 1. Pepperstone: The Federal Reserve is likely to disappoint market expectations. The dot plot median is likely to remain unchanged, still indicating only a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points this year. 2. UBS: The dot plot will show two rate cuts this year, while the market expects closer to three. Participants economic outlook forecasts will also be in focus. 3. Bank of America: With macroeconomic forecasts largely unchanged, the median Fed rate forecast for 2025 will continue to indicate a 50 basis point cut, despite a downward shift in the overall dot plot. 4. Goldman Sachs: We expect the updated dot plot to show two rate cuts this year, to 3.875%. While the Fed may currently be planning three consecutive rate cuts this year, it may decide that forcing this into the dot plot is unnecessary. 5. Morgan Stanley: We expect the median dot plot to still show two rate cuts this year, but actual economic data may push the Fed to continue cutting rates throughout the rest of the year, extending this round of cuts into January. Other Views: 1. Citigroup: The updated dot plot is likely to indicate two to three rate cuts this year, and the median rate forecast for 2026 may also be revised downward.The UKs core CPI monthly rate in August was 0.3%, in line with expectations and the previous value of 0.2%.The UKs core retail price index was 4.4% year-on-year in August, compared with 4.70% in the previous month.The UKs retail price index rose by 0.4% in August, in line with expectations of 0.5% and the previous reading of 0.40%.The UKs CPI monthly rate in August was 0.3%, in line with expectations and the previous value of 0.10%.

USD/CNH rebounds from 7.3300 despite a strong Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Daniel Rogers

Nov 01, 2022 18:01

 截屏2022-11-01 上午11.37.49.png

 

After falling to roughly 7.3300 during the Tokyo trading session, the USD/CNH pair demonstrated a V-shaped recovery. Despite the release of positive Caixin Manufacturing PMI data, the asset has made a recovery. The economic data came in at 49.2 against predictions of 49.0 and the prior value of 48.1.

 

China's official Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.2 from 50.0 and 50.1, as anticipated, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). In addition, the Non-Manufacturing PMI was significantly lower at 48.7, compared to predictions of 51.9 and the last release of 50.6.

 

In the meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) in Tokyo has declined significantly as the risk-on sentiment has grown. The DXY has significantly declined to roughly 111.36. S&P500 futures have rallied strongly since Monday's decline due to confidence surrounding the quarterly results season.

 

Despite an increase in hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) wagers, US government bond returns have dropped. At the time of writing, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury has declined to 4.04%, a decrease of 0.90% from its prior level.

 

This week's major catalyst will be the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. As inflationary pressures show no signs of abating, it is anticipated that the US Federal Reserve will hike interest rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time this year (bps). However, consumer spending declined to 1.4% in the third quarter from 2.0% in the previous quarter, which could weigh on the inflation rate.

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