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According to the Wall Street Journal: Ford Motor (FN) further cuts 1,000 jobs in Germany due to continued weak demand for electric vehicles.The European Parliaments head of metals will visit Kyiv, MEPs said.September 17th news: On September 17th local time, Krasnodar Airport in southern Russia received the first flight since its suspension of operations. This is also the first time the airport has resumed formal operations since its closure since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022.The number of rate cuts this year is expected to increase. 1. JPMorgan Chase: The updated dot plot indicates room for three rate cuts this year, one more than the June dot plot. 2. Deutsche Bank: The updated dot plot median may indicate a total of 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, 25 basis points more than the June forecast. 3. Barclays: The dot plot indicates three rate cuts this year, one each in 2026 and 2027, while the median long-term rate forecast remains unchanged at 3.0%. 4. Bank of Montreal: The median rate forecast for the end of 2025 is expected to be lowered to reflect the possibility of 25 basis point cuts at both the October and December meetings. The dot plot remains unchanged from June. 1. Pepperstone: The Federal Reserve is likely to disappoint market expectations. The dot plot median is likely to remain unchanged, still indicating only a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points this year. 2. UBS: The dot plot will show two rate cuts this year, while the market expects closer to three. Participants economic outlook forecasts will also be in focus. 3. Bank of America: With macroeconomic forecasts largely unchanged, the median Fed rate forecast for 2025 will continue to indicate a 50 basis point cut, despite a downward shift in the overall dot plot. 4. Goldman Sachs: We expect the updated dot plot to show two rate cuts this year, to 3.875%. While the Fed may currently be planning three consecutive rate cuts this year, it may decide that forcing this into the dot plot is unnecessary. 5. Morgan Stanley: We expect the median dot plot to still show two rate cuts this year, but actual economic data may push the Fed to continue cutting rates throughout the rest of the year, extending this round of cuts into January. Other Views: 1. Citigroup: The updated dot plot is likely to indicate two to three rate cuts this year, and the median rate forecast for 2026 may also be revised downward.The UKs core CPI monthly rate in August was 0.3%, in line with expectations and the previous value of 0.2%.

As China PMIs decrease, the Fed moves, and US NFP is predicted, USD/CNH surpasses 7.2800

Alina Haynes

Oct 31, 2022 16:37

截屏2022-10-31 上午11.11.46.png 

 

As China's monthly activity data disappoints offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) investors, the USD/CNH continues to draw buyers for a third consecutive day on Monday, advancing 0.23 percent intraday to 7.2850 as of press time. Concerns regarding covid difficulties in the dragon kingdom and apprehensions regarding a hawkish move by the Federal Reserve also encourage buyers to remain positive.

 

As a result, China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI for October dropped to 49.2, compared to the expected 50.0 and the previous 50.1. In addition, the Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, below market estimates of 51.9 and previous readings of 50.6. Following the publication of the data, Reuters produced an article "In October, China's factory activity unexpectedly dropped, according to a survey released by the government on Monday. Global demand decline and strict COVID-19 regulations impeded manufacturing."

 

Due to the US dollar's status as a safe haven, the shutdown of a casino resort in Macau and Russian concerns also add to the USD/appreciation. Russia, which invaded Ukraine on February 24, halted its participation in the Black Sea agreement for a "indefinite period" on Saturday because it could not "guarantee the protection of civilian ships" traveling under the treaty after its Black Sea naval was attacked.

 

The fact that US Treasury yields are directionless after a bad economic report is notable, as is the fact that US stocks futures are seeing modest losses as the Dow Jones prepares for its highest monthly gain since 1976. In addition, the US Dollar Index (DXY) demonstrates a three-day increase near 110.80, with an intraday increase of 0.1% as of press time.

 

In conclusion, the USD/CNH bulls may maintain control because China's fundamentals are weaker than those of the United States. Concerns that the Fed may suggest slowing the pace of rate hikes beginning in December have recently appeared to test buyers of currency pairs.


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