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On June 17, Nick Timiraos, the "Federal Reserve mouthpiece," pointed out in the article that there is good reason to believe that if it were not for the risks to prices posed by tariffs, the Federal Reserve would be ready to cut interest rates this week due to the recent improvement in inflation. Instead, Federal Reserve officials are expected to extend their wait-and-see attitude on Wednesday. At this meeting, Federal Reserve officials will assess how the economy has responded to the record tariff increases of the past few months. Inflation data has been relatively mild in the past three months. However, officials are concerned that tariffs announced since March may disrupt what economists call "inflation expectations." The article expects that whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year and the extent of the cut will depend to a certain extent on how officials view the risks of inflation expectations.June 17, "Fed Mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos: There is good reason to believe that if it were not for the risk posed by tariffs to prices, the Fed would be ready to cut interest rates this week because of the recent improvement in inflation. I think the past five years have changed peoples views on inflation and what might happen.On June 17, data from the International Energy Agency showed that Russias crude oil production fell by 100,000 barrels per day to 9.1 million barrels per day in May, and its exports of oil and petroleum products fell by 230,000 barrels per day to 7.3 million barrels per day. At the same time, due to lower global oil prices, total revenue fell by US$480 million to US$12.6 billion. In May, Russias oil export revenue reached the lowest level since February 2021, and its oil product revenue reached the lowest level since June 2023.Sources: US will oppose UN Aviation Councils green aviation fuel proposal.Russian government official: A decision (on the Siberia-2 gas pipeline) may be made this year.

In the face of weak yields ahead of FOMC and NFP, USD/JPY maintains a position below 148.40

Daniel Rogers

Oct 31, 2022 16:39

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The USD/JPY pair surpasses 148.0 for the second day in a row, gaining 0.45% but retreating from the day's peak of 148.26. Recent inactivity in the yen pair may be related to the market's ambivalence as well as nervousness ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting announcements and the October US employment report.

 

Despite this, the 10-year US Treasury rate fluctuates at 4.00% after ending a 10-week uptrend on Friday. The inconsistent performance of stocks adds to the challenge for USD/JPY traders, as US equity futures report minor losses as the Dow Jones prepares for its highest monthly gain since 1976.

 

Industrial Production in September was dismal, while Retail Sales earlier in the day buoyed yen bulls. According to Reuters, "Japan's factory output fell in September for the first time in four months as manufacturers grappled with rising raw material costs and a worldwide economic crisis," and is anticipated to fall again in October before recovering in November.

 

As a result of the US dollar's function as a safe haven, the USD/JPY appreciates in response to news of the shutdown of a casino resort in Macau and concerns emanating from Russia. Russia, which invaded Ukraine on February 24, halted its participation in the Black Sea agreement for a "indefinite period" on Saturday because it could not "guarantee the protection of civilian ships" traveling under the treaty after its Black Sea naval was attacked. Fears that the Fed may suggest a reduction in the rate of rate hikes beginning in December appear to be pressuring pair buyers recently.

 

In contrast to the Fed's hawkish posture, the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) unwillingness to alter monetary policy keeps USD/JPY buyers confident.