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April 5th - In recent weeks, aviation fuel prices have surged from $85-90 per barrel to $150-200 per barrel, posing a significant challenge to the global aviation industry, with many airlines adjusting their operating strategies. On April 4th, local time, Manix Fortmar, Chairman of the Representative Committee of KLM Royal Dutch Airlines, warned that if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, airlines could face pressure to cancel flights within six weeks. Benjamin Smith, CEO of Air France-KLM Group, stated that the company is preparing for potential fuel shortages. Michael OLeary, CEO of Ryanair, Europes largest low-cost carrier, said on April 1st that the airline may face a fuel supply shortfall of up to 25% in May and June, with overall European aviation fuel supplies expected to tighten in May. OLeary also said that there is a possibility of a significant increase in airfares from April to June.On April 5th, Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying it had launched strikes against petrochemical plants in the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain, an oil refinery in Israel, and a natural gas facility in the UAE. Further attacks on civilian targets within Iran would further intensify the damage to US economic interests in the region.On April 5th, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that Japan has secured enough naphtha supplies to cover at least four months of demand, and the government is seeking to alleviate concerns about potential supply shortages. Takaichi said on social media on Sunday that these supplies include approximately two months worth of overseas procurement shipments and domestic refinery production, as well as approximately two months worth of inventory of intermediate chemical products derived from naphtha, such as polyethylene. According to the Japan Petrochemical Industry Association, Japan relies on imports for about 60% of its naphtha, with over 70% coming from the Middle East. Major Japanese naphtha producers have already reduced production of this petroleum byproduct. Naphtha is widely used in the manufacture of plastic bottles, building materials, and electrical appliances.Ukraines state-owned oil and gas company, Naftogaz, said that Russia attacked its facilities in the Poltava region for the second consecutive day.April 5 - According to data from LSEG and Kpler, a tanker carrying Iraqi crude oil was spotted transiting the Strait of Hormuz along a route close to the Iranian coast, one day after Iran indicated that Iraq could be exempted from restrictions on passage through this key shipping lane. Kpler data shows that the "Ocean Thunder" loaded approximately 1 million barrels of Basra Heavy crude oil on March 2 and is expected to unload in Pengerang, Malaysia, in mid-April.

USD/JPY falls to 146.00 as the DXY weakens and interest in BOJ policy rises

Alina Haynes

Oct 27, 2022 15:28

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During the Asian session, in response to negative signals from the US dollar index, the USD/JPY pair plunged below 146.00. (DXY). Following Wednesday's low of 146.22, the asset's two-day downward trend has extended. The main index is reaching the bottom of Monday's knee-jerk reaction near 145.77 as it continues to decline.

 

The dollar bears are facing a severe sell-off due to the positive market sentiment. The risk-sensitive currencies have benefited from an increase in risk appetite. The US dollar index (DXY) has struck a new monthly low of 109.56 and is anticipated to stay volatile until the release of crucial US economic data.

 

The increased demand for U.S. government bonds has resulted in a decline in yields. This is due to the global markets' increased confidence. The yield on 10-year United States Treasury notes has decreased to 4%.

 

According to estimates, the Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded by 2.4% in the third quarter. Despite the ultra-hawkish monetary policies of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the previously disclosed 0.6% fall in growth, forecasts indicate a positive growth rate.

 

In addition, US Durable Goods Orders data will continue to be a key point. Compared to a reduction of 0.2%, it is projected that economic statistics will increase by 0.6%. Notable is the increase in core inflation, which includes oil and food prices. In spite of this, the predicted increase in demand for durable goods in the United States demonstrates healthy household demand.

 

Investors in Tokyo are anticipating the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) interest rate decision on Friday. In view of the shocks to foreign demand, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will continue an ultra-loose monetary policy to stimulate the outlook for economic development. In addition, Japanese policymakers are anxious that the inflation rate could go below 2%; hence, an extremely liberal policy is the best alternative.