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April 5th - In recent weeks, aviation fuel prices have surged from $85-90 per barrel to $150-200 per barrel, posing a significant challenge to the global aviation industry, with many airlines adjusting their operating strategies. On April 4th, local time, Manix Fortmar, Chairman of the Representative Committee of KLM Royal Dutch Airlines, warned that if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, airlines could face pressure to cancel flights within six weeks. Benjamin Smith, CEO of Air France-KLM Group, stated that the company is preparing for potential fuel shortages. Michael OLeary, CEO of Ryanair, Europes largest low-cost carrier, said on April 1st that the airline may face a fuel supply shortfall of up to 25% in May and June, with overall European aviation fuel supplies expected to tighten in May. OLeary also said that there is a possibility of a significant increase in airfares from April to June.On April 5th, Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying it had launched strikes against petrochemical plants in the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain, an oil refinery in Israel, and a natural gas facility in the UAE. Further attacks on civilian targets within Iran would further intensify the damage to US economic interests in the region.On April 5th, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that Japan has secured enough naphtha supplies to cover at least four months of demand, and the government is seeking to alleviate concerns about potential supply shortages. Takaichi said on social media on Sunday that these supplies include approximately two months worth of overseas procurement shipments and domestic refinery production, as well as approximately two months worth of inventory of intermediate chemical products derived from naphtha, such as polyethylene. According to the Japan Petrochemical Industry Association, Japan relies on imports for about 60% of its naphtha, with over 70% coming from the Middle East. Major Japanese naphtha producers have already reduced production of this petroleum byproduct. Naphtha is widely used in the manufacture of plastic bottles, building materials, and electrical appliances.Ukraines state-owned oil and gas company, Naftogaz, said that Russia attacked its facilities in the Poltava region for the second consecutive day.April 5 - According to data from LSEG and Kpler, a tanker carrying Iraqi crude oil was spotted transiting the Strait of Hormuz along a route close to the Iranian coast, one day after Iran indicated that Iraq could be exempted from restrictions on passage through this key shipping lane. Kpler data shows that the "Ocean Thunder" loaded approximately 1 million barrels of Basra Heavy crude oil on March 2 and is expected to unload in Pengerang, Malaysia, in mid-April.

As China PMIs decrease, the Fed moves, and US NFP is predicted, USD/CNH surpasses 7.2800

Alina Haynes

Oct 31, 2022 16:37

截屏2022-10-31 上午11.11.46.png 

 

As China's monthly activity data disappoints offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) investors, the USD/CNH continues to draw buyers for a third consecutive day on Monday, advancing 0.23 percent intraday to 7.2850 as of press time. Concerns regarding covid difficulties in the dragon kingdom and apprehensions regarding a hawkish move by the Federal Reserve also encourage buyers to remain positive.

 

As a result, China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI for October dropped to 49.2, compared to the expected 50.0 and the previous 50.1. In addition, the Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, below market estimates of 51.9 and previous readings of 50.6. Following the publication of the data, Reuters produced an article "In October, China's factory activity unexpectedly dropped, according to a survey released by the government on Monday. Global demand decline and strict COVID-19 regulations impeded manufacturing."

 

Due to the US dollar's status as a safe haven, the shutdown of a casino resort in Macau and Russian concerns also add to the USD/appreciation. Russia, which invaded Ukraine on February 24, halted its participation in the Black Sea agreement for a "indefinite period" on Saturday because it could not "guarantee the protection of civilian ships" traveling under the treaty after its Black Sea naval was attacked.

 

The fact that US Treasury yields are directionless after a bad economic report is notable, as is the fact that US stocks futures are seeing modest losses as the Dow Jones prepares for its highest monthly gain since 1976. In addition, the US Dollar Index (DXY) demonstrates a three-day increase near 110.80, with an intraday increase of 0.1% as of press time.

 

In conclusion, the USD/CNH bulls may maintain control because China's fundamentals are weaker than those of the United States. Concerns that the Fed may suggest slowing the pace of rate hikes beginning in December have recently appeared to test buyers of currency pairs.


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