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On September 10th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the revised "Measures for the Classification and Specific Handling of Statistical Units," which will take effect on January 1, 2027. The Measures revise the statistical principles for statistical units, clarifying the original "statistics based on the principle of location" to "statistics based on the principle of the place where business activities occur." New provisions define the specific connotation of "place where business activities occur" and the method for determining "place where major business activities occur." Specifically, the place where business activities occur refers to the location where the statistical unit conducts its business activities. If there are multiple locations where business activities occur, the location with the highest share of operating revenue (gross profit for wholesale and retail trade) will, in principle, be determined as the place where major business activities occur. For new economic formats, the Measures stipulate that units conducting economic activities on internet platforms will be statistically analyzed according to the "principle of the place where business activities occur," with online and offline activities following the same statistical principles.On September 10th, four sources within the Yemeni government forces stated that the Houthi rebels are close to gaining complete control of coastal cities along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including the historic port cities of Mocha and Dhubab. The group is currently pushing for control of the entire Red Sea coast of Yemen. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, also known as the "Gate of Tears," is a key target for the Houthis. If this narrow waterway is blocked, the main shipping routes for Gulf oil-producing countries, especially Saudi Arabia, will be disrupted, following Irans de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.The yield on German 30-year government bonds rose to 3.8981%, the highest level since April 2011, up 2 basis points.Pakistan stated on Thursday that, according to the Mecca Agreement, there are currently no discussions regarding Islamabads military response to Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, but added that Pakistan will act "when the time is right." When asked at a weekly media briefing about Islamabads plans to fulfill its obligations under the joint defense agreement signed with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Sajjad Haider Khan said, "There are no discussions on such matters at present… When the time is right, (we) will act in accordance with the agreement." The joint defense agreement, signed last month, stipulates that an armed attack on any of the three countries will be considered an attack on all three. This issue arises after Houthi attacks on Saudi cities and energy infrastructure this week, which, as of Thursday, have become a second front in the Middle East. Reuters reported that Islamabad has warned Iran to restrain its Houthi allies in Yemen after the Houthis intensified their attacks on Saudi Arabia. Pakistan, which is also mediating the US-Iran conflict, condemned the attacks but did not elaborate on how it might respond under the terms of the defense agreement.Statistics South Africa: South African gold production fell 7.4% year-on-year in July, total mining output fell 7.5% year-on-year, and platinum group metals production fell 13.5% year-on-year.

Despite a reduction in oil prices, USD/CAD falls to 1.3550; US PCE inflation is forecast

Daniel Rogers

Oct 28, 2022 15:25

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During Friday's Asian session, the USD/CAD accepts bids to retest the intraday low near 1.3550, reversing the previous day's recovery from the monthly low.

 

Thus, the Loonie pair disregards the recent decline in Canada's key export item, WTI crude oil, as the US Dollar Index (DXY) consolidates its gains from the previous day in response to the recent decline in hawkish Fed wagers.

 

Despite this, the DXY dips to 110.50, following Thursday's recovery from the five-week low, as Fed hawks receive contradictory information regarding the overall strength of US data. In the third quarter, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States climbed 2.6% on an annualized basis, exceeding estimates (Q3). Nevertheless, a fifth consecutive decline in private consumption presented a challenge to Fed hawks, as it demonstrated that policymakers are gradually approaching the target of slowing down private domestic demand. This may favor easy rate hike discussions for December at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting the following week.

 

Notable obstacles to the US dollar are the sluggish US Treasury yields and the mood of risk aversion. US 10-year Treasury rates reached a two-week low on Thursday and are heading for their first weekly loss in eleven weeks, which encouraged equities to enjoy a decent week despite the most recent decline in the statistics.

 

At home, the Bank of Canada's (BOC) 0.50 percent rate hike, as opposed to the 0.75 percent expected, joins the optimism of officials to keep USD/CAD bears upbeat.

 

The US Core PCE Price Index for September, which is expected to increase to 5.2% from 4.9% previously, will be crucial for the future direction of the USD/CAD pair. A better reading of the Fed's preferred inflation indicator might increase interest rates and hawkish Fed bets, which will benefit pair buyers.

 

In conjunction with the pair's prolonged trading below the 21-DMA barrier near 1.3700, bearish MACD signals encourage sellers. To imply more losses, however, a daily close below the support zone of 1.3505-3495 is required.


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