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On April 6th, US President Trump stated in an interview on April 5th that the US is currently engaged in "in-depth negotiations" with Iran and hopes to reach an agreement before his April 7th deadline. Two sources indicated that the negotiations are being conducted through mediators from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey, and there has also been communication between Trumps advisors and the Iranian Foreign Minister. Trump stated that his special envoy, Witkov, and his son-in-law, Kushner, are conducting intensive negotiations with the Iranian side. Trump said that an agreement is very likely, but if an agreement cannot be reached, he will destroy everything there. Previously, Trump had threatened to destroy infrastructure vital to Iranian civilians if an agreement could not be reached with Iranian leaders.On April 6, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated during a phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov that the US threat to attack Iranian energy facilities was Washingtons "admission" of war crimes. In a statement, Iran said, "The Iranian Foreign Minister mentioned the US threat to attack Iranian energy facilities, considering these remarks a clear admission of war crimes." Araqchi pointed out that since the start of the war, the US has been attacking Irans industrial, energy, educational, medical, and nuclear infrastructure. He emphasized that the UN Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency should immediately condemn the US attacks on Iranian facilities.April 6 - According to the Telegram channel "TOLOnews Plus," citing the National Disaster Management Authority (ANDMA), as of Sunday, the death toll from floods and landslides caused by torrential rains that began in Afghanistan on March 25 has reached 99, with 154 injured.April 6th - According to foreign media reports, crude oil loading at the important Russian Baltic port of Ust-Luga was disrupted for several days following multiple drone attacks by Ukraine, but has now resumed. Shipping information shows that an Aframax bulk carrier named "Gem" began loading cargo on Saturday. Currently, Ukraine continues to attack Russian Baltic oil infrastructure; facilities at the port of Primorsk were damaged earlier on Sunday. Ukraines actions are aimed at curbing Russian export revenues. Global energy prices have risen due to the Middle East war. However, if Russia resumes a stable supply of crude oil from the Ust-Luga oil field, it could provide some relief to global markets turbulent due to Irans blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.Market news: Ust-Luga, a major Baltic port in Russia, has resumed crude oil loading after several days of disruption.

AUD/USD demonstrates pre-Fed anxiety near 0.64 ahead of the US ADP Employment Change

Daniel Rogers

Nov 02, 2022 17:54

 截屏2022-11-02 上午10.53.53.png

 

Ahead of Wednesday's key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, traders become cautious, causing AUD/USD to bounce around 0.6400. Traders of the Australian dollar-United States dollar pair are challenged by both pre-Fed anxiety and China- and U.S.-related concerns during a poor Asian session.

 

However, recent strong US data reinforced expectations for hawkish Fed action and defied the market's initial anticipation that officials will signal fewer rate hikes beginning in December. However, increased recession fears and rising price pressure look to present a challenge for both Fed hawks and AUD/USD bears.

 

Despite this, the US JOLTS Job Openings increased to 10,717M in September, compared to the forecast of 10.0M and the upwardly revised readings of 10.28M. In addition, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in October, compared to market forecasts of 50 and a previous reading of 50.9. Final readings of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for October exceeded 49.9 preliminary predictions to reach 50.4, but stayed below the 52.0 readings from the prior month.

 

In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) preparedness to offer additional rate hikes, after announcing the second increase of 25 basis points (bps) to the benchmark rate the previous day, benefits AUD/USD buyers. During his scheduled speech on Tuesday, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe noted, "Rates have been significantly increased in a very short period of time." According to the official, the board has determined that a more gradual rate rise is necessary.

 

Aside from this, prospects of reducing covid restrictions in China and the recently higher China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for October may have helped AUD/USD buyers in the past, despite being the third consecutive reading below 50.

 

Yields remain unchanged at 4.05% following a solid start to November, while S&P 500 Futures register moderate gains despite Wall Street's poor close.

 

Consequently, AUD/USD pair traders should keep an eye on risk triggers and Australia's September Building Permits for fresh market impetus. Also essential will be the US ADP Employment Change for the month of October, as it gives an early indicator for Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls report. However, significant emphasis should be placed on the Fed's ability to transmit a brake on the rapid rate hikes.

 

Combined with the AUD/USD pair's resistance to dip below the 10-DMA support near.6390, Tuesday's daily candle gives buyers hope. A downward-sloping resistance line from the beginning of August, which was near 0.6480 at the time of writing, challenges the upward momentum of the quote.


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