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On September 10th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the revised "Measures for the Classification and Specific Handling of Statistical Units," which will take effect on January 1, 2027. The Measures revise the statistical principles for statistical units, clarifying the original "statistics based on the principle of location" to "statistics based on the principle of the place where business activities occur." New provisions define the specific connotation of "place where business activities occur" and the method for determining "place where major business activities occur." Specifically, the place where business activities occur refers to the location where the statistical unit conducts its business activities. If there are multiple locations where business activities occur, the location with the highest share of operating revenue (gross profit for wholesale and retail trade) will, in principle, be determined as the place where major business activities occur. For new economic formats, the Measures stipulate that units conducting economic activities on internet platforms will be statistically analyzed according to the "principle of the place where business activities occur," with online and offline activities following the same statistical principles.On September 10th, four sources within the Yemeni government forces stated that the Houthi rebels are close to gaining complete control of coastal cities along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including the historic port cities of Mocha and Dhubab. The group is currently pushing for control of the entire Red Sea coast of Yemen. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, also known as the "Gate of Tears," is a key target for the Houthis. If this narrow waterway is blocked, the main shipping routes for Gulf oil-producing countries, especially Saudi Arabia, will be disrupted, following Irans de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.The yield on German 30-year government bonds rose to 3.8981%, the highest level since April 2011, up 2 basis points.Pakistan stated on Thursday that, according to the Mecca Agreement, there are currently no discussions regarding Islamabads military response to Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, but added that Pakistan will act "when the time is right." When asked at a weekly media briefing about Islamabads plans to fulfill its obligations under the joint defense agreement signed with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Sajjad Haider Khan said, "There are no discussions on such matters at present… When the time is right, (we) will act in accordance with the agreement." The joint defense agreement, signed last month, stipulates that an armed attack on any of the three countries will be considered an attack on all three. This issue arises after Houthi attacks on Saudi cities and energy infrastructure this week, which, as of Thursday, have become a second front in the Middle East. Reuters reported that Islamabad has warned Iran to restrain its Houthi allies in Yemen after the Houthis intensified their attacks on Saudi Arabia. Pakistan, which is also mediating the US-Iran conflict, condemned the attacks but did not elaborate on how it might respond under the terms of the defense agreement.Statistics South Africa: South African gold production fell 7.4% year-on-year in July, total mining output fell 7.5% year-on-year, and platinum group metals production fell 13.5% year-on-year.

AUD/USD demonstrates pre-Fed anxiety near 0.64 ahead of the US ADP Employment Change

Daniel Rogers

Nov 02, 2022 17:54

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Ahead of Wednesday's key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, traders become cautious, causing AUD/USD to bounce around 0.6400. Traders of the Australian dollar-United States dollar pair are challenged by both pre-Fed anxiety and China- and U.S.-related concerns during a poor Asian session.

 

However, recent strong US data reinforced expectations for hawkish Fed action and defied the market's initial anticipation that officials will signal fewer rate hikes beginning in December. However, increased recession fears and rising price pressure look to present a challenge for both Fed hawks and AUD/USD bears.

 

Despite this, the US JOLTS Job Openings increased to 10,717M in September, compared to the forecast of 10.0M and the upwardly revised readings of 10.28M. In addition, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in October, compared to market forecasts of 50 and a previous reading of 50.9. Final readings of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for October exceeded 49.9 preliminary predictions to reach 50.4, but stayed below the 52.0 readings from the prior month.

 

In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) preparedness to offer additional rate hikes, after announcing the second increase of 25 basis points (bps) to the benchmark rate the previous day, benefits AUD/USD buyers. During his scheduled speech on Tuesday, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe noted, "Rates have been significantly increased in a very short period of time." According to the official, the board has determined that a more gradual rate rise is necessary.

 

Aside from this, prospects of reducing covid restrictions in China and the recently higher China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for October may have helped AUD/USD buyers in the past, despite being the third consecutive reading below 50.

 

Yields remain unchanged at 4.05% following a solid start to November, while S&P 500 Futures register moderate gains despite Wall Street's poor close.

 

Consequently, AUD/USD pair traders should keep an eye on risk triggers and Australia's September Building Permits for fresh market impetus. Also essential will be the US ADP Employment Change for the month of October, as it gives an early indicator for Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls report. However, significant emphasis should be placed on the Fed's ability to transmit a brake on the rapid rate hikes.

 

Combined with the AUD/USD pair's resistance to dip below the 10-DMA support near.6390, Tuesday's daily candle gives buyers hope. A downward-sloping resistance line from the beginning of August, which was near 0.6480 at the time of writing, challenges the upward momentum of the quote.


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