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On September 10th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the revised "Measures for the Classification and Specific Handling of Statistical Units," which will take effect on January 1, 2027. The Measures revise the statistical principles for statistical units, clarifying the original "statistics based on the principle of location" to "statistics based on the principle of the place where business activities occur." New provisions define the specific connotation of "place where business activities occur" and the method for determining "place where major business activities occur." Specifically, the place where business activities occur refers to the location where the statistical unit conducts its business activities. If there are multiple locations where business activities occur, the location with the highest share of operating revenue (gross profit for wholesale and retail trade) will, in principle, be determined as the place where major business activities occur. For new economic formats, the Measures stipulate that units conducting economic activities on internet platforms will be statistically analyzed according to the "principle of the place where business activities occur," with online and offline activities following the same statistical principles.On September 10th, four sources within the Yemeni government forces stated that the Houthi rebels are close to gaining complete control of coastal cities along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including the historic port cities of Mocha and Dhubab. The group is currently pushing for control of the entire Red Sea coast of Yemen. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, also known as the "Gate of Tears," is a key target for the Houthis. If this narrow waterway is blocked, the main shipping routes for Gulf oil-producing countries, especially Saudi Arabia, will be disrupted, following Irans de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.The yield on German 30-year government bonds rose to 3.8981%, the highest level since April 2011, up 2 basis points.Pakistan stated on Thursday that, according to the Mecca Agreement, there are currently no discussions regarding Islamabads military response to Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, but added that Pakistan will act "when the time is right." When asked at a weekly media briefing about Islamabads plans to fulfill its obligations under the joint defense agreement signed with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Sajjad Haider Khan said, "There are no discussions on such matters at present… When the time is right, (we) will act in accordance with the agreement." The joint defense agreement, signed last month, stipulates that an armed attack on any of the three countries will be considered an attack on all three. This issue arises after Houthi attacks on Saudi cities and energy infrastructure this week, which, as of Thursday, have become a second front in the Middle East. Reuters reported that Islamabad has warned Iran to restrain its Houthi allies in Yemen after the Houthis intensified their attacks on Saudi Arabia. Pakistan, which is also mediating the US-Iran conflict, condemned the attacks but did not elaborate on how it might respond under the terms of the defense agreement.Statistics South Africa: South African gold production fell 7.4% year-on-year in July, total mining output fell 7.5% year-on-year, and platinum group metals production fell 13.5% year-on-year.

In the face of weak yields ahead of FOMC and NFP, USD/JPY maintains a position below 148.40

Daniel Rogers

Oct 31, 2022 16:39

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The USD/JPY pair surpasses 148.0 for the second day in a row, gaining 0.45% but retreating from the day's peak of 148.26. Recent inactivity in the yen pair may be related to the market's ambivalence as well as nervousness ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting announcements and the October US employment report.

 

Despite this, the 10-year US Treasury rate fluctuates at 4.00% after ending a 10-week uptrend on Friday. The inconsistent performance of stocks adds to the challenge for USD/JPY traders, as US equity futures report minor losses as the Dow Jones prepares for its highest monthly gain since 1976.

 

Industrial Production in September was dismal, while Retail Sales earlier in the day buoyed yen bulls. According to Reuters, "Japan's factory output fell in September for the first time in four months as manufacturers grappled with rising raw material costs and a worldwide economic crisis," and is anticipated to fall again in October before recovering in November.

 

As a result of the US dollar's function as a safe haven, the USD/JPY appreciates in response to news of the shutdown of a casino resort in Macau and concerns emanating from Russia. Russia, which invaded Ukraine on February 24, halted its participation in the Black Sea agreement for a "indefinite period" on Saturday because it could not "guarantee the protection of civilian ships" traveling under the treaty after its Black Sea naval was attacked. Fears that the Fed may suggest a reduction in the rate of rate hikes beginning in December appear to be pressuring pair buyers recently.

 

In contrast to the Fed's hawkish posture, the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) unwillingness to alter monetary policy keeps USD/JPY buyers confident.