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Real-time News
On December 11, Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamesz stated on the 10th that Poland is in discussions with Ukraine regarding an exchange of MiG-29 fighter jets for drone technology. He said that the Polish Air Forces current Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets are nearing the end of their service life, and Poland is negotiating with Ukraine to transfer these aircraft while simultaneously acquiring drone and missile technology from Ukraine. Poland provided Ukraine with 10 MiG-29 fighter jets in 2023. It is understood that the Polish Air Force currently has 14 MiG-29 fighter jets. Kosiniak-Kamesz stated that both sides hope to complete the transfer of the remaining MiG-29 fighter jets "as soon as possible."Policy Statement 1. Barclays: Expects hawkish wording in the statement, suggesting a pause in rate cuts in January. 2. JPMorgan: The statements wording may be adjusted to "focus on the magnitude and timing of further adjustments," a subtle change suggesting a reduced likelihood of rate cuts at subsequent meetings. 3. Wells Fargo: Expects the statement to signal a further increase in the threshold for rate cuts and to suggest that "keeping rates unchanged" is the current assumption for most committee members. Voting Disagreements 1. BNY Mellon: The dot plot is likely to confirm recent disagreements within the FOMC regarding policy stances, with committee members expected to show significant divergence in their views on the policy direction for 2026. 2. JPMorgan: Expects at least two dissenting votes against rate cuts, advocating for holding rates steady, and one vote demanding a larger rate cut. The dot plot is expected to show one more rate cut each over the next two years. 3. FP Markets: This meeting may see hawkish dissenters, such as Schmid, Goolsby, Musalaim, and Powell. If rates are cut this week, another cut is expected next year. Powells Remarks: 1. Bank of America: Powell may avoid giving explicit hawkish guidance; his communication strategy may revolve around real interest rates or data dependence. 2. Danske Bank: Expects Powell to continue the stance of the October meeting, clearly expressing opposition to market expectations of continuous rate cuts. 3. Deutsche Bank: Expects Powell to emphasize that the threshold for further rate cuts in early 2026 is high, signaling a short-term pause in rate cuts. 4. Former Fed Vice Chairman Blinder: Expects Powell to explain rate cuts in a similar manner to the last press conference, warning the market not to assume the Fed will continue to cut rates. 5. Morgan Stanley: Expects Powell to hint that the monetary policy adjustment phase has ended, and any subsequent actions will be based on meeting-by-meeting assessments and the latest data. Other: 1. Bank of America: Expects the Fed to announce a "reserve management operation" starting in January, purchasing Treasury bills with maturities of one year or less at a rate of $45 billion per month. 2. Wells Fargo: Expects no decision on the "reserve management operation" at this meeting, but rather a preference to announce the launch of the program at the March meeting. December 11th - The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to announce an interest rate cut at this meeting. One of the key focuses for investors will be how many policymakers will publicly oppose the decision. The CIBC Capital Markets FX analyst team points out that the focus will be on the voting composition, with both hawkish and dovish dissenters expected. Schmid and Musalaim are expected to vote in favor of keeping rates unchanged. The positions of Collins and Goolsby are more difficult to predict; if one or both dissent, it could send a stronger hawkish signal to the market.December 11th - European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Machrouf stated that consumer price increases are increasingly likely to stabilize at the 2% target level. Machrouf said, "Based on the latest forecasts from September, and the latest data I have seen so far, I am convinced that inflation will reach the target in the medium term." The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting on December 18th, as policymakers are satisfied with price trends as the Eurozone economy has performed better than expected.The Federal Reserve accepted a total of $504.5 billion from 17 counterparties in its fixed-rate reverse repurchase operations.
