EUR/USD 1.15436
0.076%
Gold 4089.50
0.446%
Oil 88.862
-1.568%
USD/JPY 160.566
0.010%
GBP/USD 1.33768
0.072%
GBP/JPY 214.789
0.081%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
Market news: NEC, Anthropic, and Japanese financial institutions will collaborate on an artificial intelligence project.Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: On June 10th, COMEX gold prices plummeted, approaching 4000 points, closing at $4094.1 per ounce, a drop of 4.49%. Domestic SHFE gold opened lower and continued to decline, breaking below 900 points, closing at 892.58 yuan per gram, a drop of 4.11%. 1. On Wednesday evening, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.2% year-on-year in May, the largest increase since April 2023, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 2.9% year-on-year. Although the CPI report suggested that the oil price shock had not yet spread to broader economic sectors, mainly remaining confined to the transportation industry, providing more justification for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged until 2027, the market still bet on a Fed rate hike in October after the CPI data release, putting continued pressure on gold prices. 2. Geopolitically, Trumps dissatisfaction with the slow progress of US-Iran negotiations, threatening a "very strong" attack on Iranian infrastructure, has fueled renewed market concerns about a potential escalation of the conflict. This renewed geopolitical tension, coupled with expectations of a Fed rate hike, has dealt a double blow to gold, causing prices to fall rapidly again. However, the unusually weak performance of US stocks may force the Fed to be more cautious in its monetary policy rhetoric. With the Feds interest rate meeting next week, the market anticipates a hawkish stance that could further suppress gold prices. However, its also important to watch for unusual "buy the rumor, sell the fact" volatility in gold prices before and after the meeting.On June 11, in response to the critical issue that my countrys mainstream monitoring equipment and core methods for greenhouse gas monitoring and measurement have long relied on foreign technologies, making it difficult to achieve independent and accurate quality control of carbon emission monitoring data at the national, regional, and industry levels, the State Administration for Market Regulation organized leading domestic scientific and technological forces to carry out key technology research on integrated space-air-ground greenhouse gas concentration monitoring, emission inversion algorithms, and monitoring equipment. They successfully broke through the core technology of high-resolution domestic satellite CO2 and CH4 column concentration and emission inversion, breaking the foreign technological monopoly in the field of mesoscale CO2 flux detection lidar concentration and wind field synchronous detection.The Kuwaiti Civil Aviation Authority announced that flights suspended due to the Iranian attacks have resumed.June 11 – Peakfly Aviation announced today that its V2000CG Kerry-class aircraft has officially received its Validated Type Certificate (VTC) from the Indonesian Civil Aviation Authority (DGCA), becoming the worlds first eVTOL aircraft to receive overseas type approval. As the only eVTOL aircraft of tonnage and above to receive all three airworthiness certificates issued by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), the V2000CGs acquisition of the Indonesian VTC indicates that its design meets both the airworthiness standards of its country of origin (China) and the airworthiness requirements of its importing country (Indonesia), providing the prerequisites for the V2000CG to commence commercial operations in the "Land of a Thousand Islands."

EUR/USD Bears Refuel Following a 50% Mean Reversion, With an Eye on US GDP

Daniel Rogers

Apr 28, 2022 10:11

EUR/USD is trading near flat at 1.0552 at the Tokyo open, as the price consolidates below the 50% mean reversion of the previous session's sell-off. The pair, however, remains in the bears' hands as a result of the Ukraine crisis and risk-off markets favoring the US dollar.

 

The dollar was significantly stronger against its major trading partners during the middle of the week as traders awaited the advance Gross Domestic Product reading for Q1 that will be released today along with weekly initial jobless claims, followed by Personal Income and Spending, the Michigan Sentiment Index, and the Federal Reserve the following week.

 

While Fed members remain silent ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on May 3-4, the spotlight has shifted to China's covid lockdowns and the Ukraine crisis, both of which pose risks to European economic growth.

 

Russia cut off supplies of natural gas to portions of the region. On Wednesday, Russia's Gazprom (GAZP) cut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria for failing to pay in roubles, intensifying an economic battle with Europe in reaction to Western sanctions imposed in response to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

 

Meanwhile, as China implements lockdowns in an attempt to contain the spread of COVID-19, Beijing has increased mass testing for the virus, and the combination of expectations for a 50 basis point hike at the Federal Reserve's May 3-4 meeting is dragging on the euro. WIRP indicates that 50 basis point increases at the May 3-4 and June 14-15 meetings are completely priced in, with over 25% probability of a possible 75 basis point increase in June.

The United States Dollar is on Fire

The dollar index against a basket of currencies (DXY) hit a record high of 103.282 in January. "We remain on track for a March 2020 peak near 103, but have arrived significantly sooner than predicted," Brown Brothers Harriman analysts said.

 

"Since such, we must begin thinking ahead, as we believe the strong dollar trend will continue into Q2 and possibly into Q3. Following 103, there is the December 2016 high near 103.65, which is also not that far off. Following that, there are no meaningful chart points until we reach the September 2002 peak of 109.24."

 

"This appears to be a step too far. Yes, we are bullish on the dollar, but we believe it cannot rally another 6-7 percent from current levels. Perhaps we can reach 105 before topping out, but that is purely a guess at this point."

 

In comparison to the Federal Reserve and market forecasts, the European Central Bank's tightening program is slightly behind schedule. Several ECB officials have called for the next rate hike to take place in July. Traders will be monitoring the European Union's inflation statistics, which will be issued on Friday, in this regard.

Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD

On an hourly basis, there is the possibility of a downward continuation as the correction approaches the 50% mean reversion level, a bearish engulfing, and another negative drift:

 

image.png


Suggestion