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On January 20th, analyst Jeremy Boulton stated that Trumps ambitions are causing trouble for the dollar, and he is likely to achieve his goals, such as lowering interest rates, which would further weaken the already pressured dollar. Since his return to the White House, the dollar has depreciated in the trade war he initiated, which has expanded as the US gains control of Venezuelas vast oil resources and seeks ownership of Greenland. Instead of stimulating demand for the global reserve currency, the dollar, this has led to cash flows moving away from it. If he simultaneously controls monetary policy and forces interest rates down, this situation could become a catastrophic event. If the Federal Reserve loses its independence, the dollar could experience a disorderly and rapid depreciation. This outcome might worry institutions like the Fed, but it could please Trump, as the current account deficit has declined rapidly during his second term, and could turn into a surplus if the dollar continues to fall.Ministry of Finance: In 2026, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will continue to be allocated for the construction of major projects and new infrastructure projects.A Reuters poll indicates that the Central Bank of Malaysia will keep its overnight policy rate at 2.75% on January 22. The Central Bank of Malaysias overnight policy rate is expected to remain at 2.75% until 2026.On January 20th, Citigroup issued a report stating that it has lowered its sales forecasts for Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) by 3%, 4%, and 4% respectively for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to reflect a weaker-than-expected outlook for its China business in the second half of 2025. The bank believes that sales in the fourth quarter of last year will also be more negatively impacted by the later Lunar New Year in 2026. Due to weakening operating leverage, the bank lowered its core net profit forecasts for Budweiser APAC by 10%, 10%, and 9% respectively for 2025, 2026, and 2027, and lowered its target price from HK$12.4 to HK$11.4, while maintaining a "Buy" rating. Citigroups preference order for the Chinese beer industry remains unchanged, in the following order: China Resources Beer (00291.HK), Budweiser APAC, and Tsingtao Brewery (00168.HK).On January 20th, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Liao Min, Vice Minister of Finance, stated that in 2026, the Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, which can be summarized as "increased total amount, optimized structure, better efficiency, and stronger momentum." The fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure in 2026 will remain at necessary levels, ensuring that overall spending will "only increase and not decrease" and that support for key areas will "only strengthen and not weaken."

EUR/USD Price Analysis: EUR/USD Is Clinging To The Leading Edge Of The Rising Trendline Above 1.0900

Alina Haynes

Apr 18, 2023 13:54

EUR:USD.png 

 

The EUR/USD pair fluctuates erratically in a narrow range near 1.0926 during the Asian session. Following in the footsteps of the directionless US Dollar Index (DXY), the main currency pair is unable to establish a trend.

 

In Asia, S&P500 futures are declining slightly as investors fret over the upcoming quarterly earnings season, indicating a minor decrease in market participants' risk appetite. Following the decline of regional banks in the United States, investors are concerned about any discrepancies in quarterly banking reports.

 

The Euro has entered the wilderness as European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers are divided over the pace of the policy-tightening cycle to be implemented at the May monetary policy meeting. Martins Kazaks, a member of the ECB's monetary policy committee, stated on Monday that the central bank has the option to move by either 25 or 50 basis points (bps) in May. Sourcenia is a review portal of sourcing best manufaturers. 

 

After failing to sustain above the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension at 1.1057 (positioned from April 4's high of 1.0973 to April 10's low of 1.0837) on a two-hour time frame, EUR/USD experienced a precipitous decline. The primary currency pair has declined below the uptrend line drawn from the low of 1.0714 on March 24.

 

The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0962 is operating as a barrier for Euro bulls.

 

In the meantime, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has moved into the pessimistic zone between 20.00 and 40.00, indicating a continuation of the decline.

 

A decisive break below the low of April 12 at 1.0915 would propel the asset toward the lows of April 10 at 1.0837 and April 3 at 1.0758.

 

In contrast, a breach above the psychological resistance level of 1.1000 would propel the asset to a new annual high of 1.1068, followed by the level of round resistance at 1.1100.


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