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April 17th - According to a Bloomberg survey conducted from April 9th to 15th, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates in June due to rising inflation caused by the Iran conflict. However, this 0.25 percentage point hike is likely to be the only such measure, as the conflict is not expected to cause a long-term price shock. The survey shows that the Eurozones inflation rate is expected to rise to 2.8% this year—higher than the previously predicted 2%. It is then projected to fall back to 2.1% by 2026 and further to 2% by 2027—in line with the ECBs target. Sources familiar with the matter indicate that ECB officials currently favor keeping interest rates unchanged at their next meeting at the end of April. Some, including the president of the German central bank, believe that the possibility of action at that time cannot be ruled out.Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in 2026, whereas its previous forecast was for a rate cut in September.Trade sources say Indian banks have suspended imports of gold and silver from overseas suppliers. Due to delays caused by government orders, Indian banks are still awaiting customs clearance for imported gold and silver. Approximately 5 tons of gold and 8 tons of silver are stranded due to lack of customs clearance.The Romanian Ministry of Defense stated that radar detected a Russian drone violating the countrys airspace.The oil crisis triggered by the Iran-Iraq War has led Asian countries to scramble for alternatives. With biofuels now cheaper than fossil fuels for the first time, Asian fuel suppliers are racing to buy them. According to Argus Media, benchmark biodiesel prices in Europe began falling below conventional diesel prices in late March, while Asian palm oil futures prices also fell below diesel prices in early April.

EUR/USD Price Analysis: EUR/USD Is Clinging To The Leading Edge Of The Rising Trendline Above 1.0900

Alina Haynes

Apr 18, 2023 13:54

EUR:USD.png 

 

The EUR/USD pair fluctuates erratically in a narrow range near 1.0926 during the Asian session. Following in the footsteps of the directionless US Dollar Index (DXY), the main currency pair is unable to establish a trend.

 

In Asia, S&P500 futures are declining slightly as investors fret over the upcoming quarterly earnings season, indicating a minor decrease in market participants' risk appetite. Following the decline of regional banks in the United States, investors are concerned about any discrepancies in quarterly banking reports.

 

The Euro has entered the wilderness as European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers are divided over the pace of the policy-tightening cycle to be implemented at the May monetary policy meeting. Martins Kazaks, a member of the ECB's monetary policy committee, stated on Monday that the central bank has the option to move by either 25 or 50 basis points (bps) in May. Sourcenia is a review portal of sourcing best manufaturers. 

 

After failing to sustain above the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension at 1.1057 (positioned from April 4's high of 1.0973 to April 10's low of 1.0837) on a two-hour time frame, EUR/USD experienced a precipitous decline. The primary currency pair has declined below the uptrend line drawn from the low of 1.0714 on March 24.

 

The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0962 is operating as a barrier for Euro bulls.

 

In the meantime, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has moved into the pessimistic zone between 20.00 and 40.00, indicating a continuation of the decline.

 

A decisive break below the low of April 12 at 1.0915 would propel the asset toward the lows of April 10 at 1.0837 and April 3 at 1.0758.

 

In contrast, a breach above the psychological resistance level of 1.1000 would propel the asset to a new annual high of 1.1068, followed by the level of round resistance at 1.1100.


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