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On December 31st, according to foreign media reports, international oil prices stabilized on Tuesday after experiencing fluctuations. Despite escalating tensions in the Middle East surrounding Yemen and a renewed setback in the prospects for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, market concerns about a global supply glut again limited the upside potential for oil prices. The significant increase in political risks in the Middle East prompted the market to re-induce a certain geopolitical risk premium. Localized disruptions on the supply side also provided support for prices. The US blockade of Venezuelan crude oil continues, and severe weather in the Black Sea region has disrupted CPC crude oil exports, tightening some supplies flowing to Europe and Asia in the short term. These events combined to provide some support for oil prices around $60. However, in the medium term, the crude oil market still faces oversupply pressure. Several institutions have pointed out that the global oil market may enter a significant oversupply phase in early 2026. Production from non-OPEC oil-producing countries continues to grow, while demand lacks the momentum for simultaneous expansion. Even if the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, the impact on actual crude oil exports will remain limited, making it difficult to fundamentally reverse the supply and demand structure. Analysts believe that oil prices are currently in a sideways consolidation range, and geopolitical risk events may bring a short-term rebound, but it is unlikely to form a sustained trend.New Energy Vehicles: 1. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and three other departments issued the "Implementation Plan for Digital Transformation of the Automotive Industry," proposing that by 2027, the maturity level of intelligent manufacturing capabilities of benchmark vehicle manufacturers will be upgraded by one level, and the digitalization level of component manufacturers will be significantly improved. 2. Teslas official website released analyst forecasts for delivery volume: analysts on average expect the company to deliver 422,850 vehicles in the fourth quarter, a 15% decrease compared to the same period last year. 3. Reports indicate that Xiaomi Auto initially plans to launch four new models next year: a facelifted SU7, an executive version of the SU7, a range-extended five-seater SUV, and a range-extended seven-seater SUV. Artificial Intelligence: 1. MiniMax: Plans to issue over 25 million shares in its Hong Kong listing, with a maximum price of HK$165. 2. Nvidia plans to acquire Israels AI21 Labs for up to $3 billion. 3. Foreign media: Alibaba, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, and others are reportedly participating in MiniMaxs $600 million IPO. 4. CNBC: SoftBank has fully completed its $40 billion investment commitment in OpenAI. 5. xAI: Plans to build a third hyperscale data center will increase training computing power to nearly 2 gigawatts. Other: 1. my country successfully launched the Tianhui-7 satellite. 2. my country successfully launched the Shijian-29 satellite. 3. Next year, the "Two New" policy will be optimized and upgraded, with smart products included in the subsidy scope. 4. Chinas domestically produced manned airship "Xiangyun" AS700 obtained a production license, officially entering the mass production stage. 5. Reports indicate that TSMCs Arizona plant will begin 3nm mass production in 2027, a year earlier than originally planned. 6. Samsung Electronics plans to achieve a monthly HBM wafer production capacity of 250,000 wafers by the end of 2026, a 47% increase from the current monthly capacity of 170,000 wafers. December 31, 2025 – At 06:40 Beijing time on December 31, 2025, my country successfully launched the Shijian-29 Satellite A and Satellite B into their predetermined orbits using a Long March-7A carrier rocket from the Wenchang Space Launch Site. The launch mission was a complete success. The satellites will primarily conduct verification experiments on new technologies for space target detection. This mission marks the 623rd flight of the Long March series of carrier rockets.On December 31st, South Koreas consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.3% year-on-year in December, down from 2.4% in November. Core inflation rose at 2%, the same rate as in November. Both overall and core inflation rates remained near the Bank of Koreas 2% target. These figures suggest some easing of price pressures, but they are unlikely to prompt the Bank of Korea to resume monetary easing on January 15th. The continued rise in the housing market has raised concerns that soaring mortgage debt levels could trigger financial imbalances, making the central bank reluctant to take further stimulus measures. Furthermore, the cost of living is likely to continue rising. Earlier this month, authorities warned that rising food prices could push inflation higher than expected next year, although overall price pressures remain largely manageable.Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: Iran is resuming ballistic missile production.

Due to hawkish Fed forecasts, the EUR/USD recovers to near 1.0970 but remains in the doldrums

Alina Haynes

Apr 21, 2023 13:58

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Following a corrective move, the EUR/USD pair has rebounded from 1.0960, but investors await the publication of the preliminary Eurozone/United States S&P PMI data for April. The major currency pair has remained between 1.0911 and 1.1000 for the past two trading sessions, as the foreign exchange market prepares for a pre-anxiety move ahead of a Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision.

 

S&P500 closed with a negative tone for the third day in a row as quarterly earnings season induced extreme volatility. Tesla's poor earnings had a negative impact on Thursday's market sentiment. Moreover, market participants were cautioned by substandard revenue projections due to the potential for price reductions. The decision of the Fed to increase interest rates is reflected in quarterly earnings. Data from Refinitiv indicates that analysts have largely maintained last week's forecast of a near 5% YoY decline in quarterly profits for the 500 largest U.S. equities. Sourcenia is a review portal of sourcing best manufaturers. 

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been defending the key support level of 101.60 in recent trading sessions. The USD Index maintained the aforementioned support despite the release of disappointing Jobless claims data on Thursday. Initial Jobless Claims increased to 245K for the week ending April 4, which is greater than the previous release of 240K and estimates of 240K. Increasing unemployment claims heightened fears of a deteriorating labor market.

 

Despite this, Fed policymakers continue to anticipate further rate hikes from the central bank. Thursday, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, reaffirmed that the Fed has more work to do because US inflation remains too high, according to Reuters. He added, "The Federal Reserve will need to raise its policy rate above 5% and hold it there for some time."

 

Preliminary Consumer Confidence (April) for the Eurozone increased to -17.5 from -18.5 and the previous reading of -19.2. This may be the consequence of extraordinary efforts by the European Central Bank (ECB) to reduce inflationary pressures.


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