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On August 14th, short-term U.S. Treasury bonds rose as weak July retail sales data further eroded market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in the coming months—an expectation already precarious based on employment and inflation data. The gains briefly pushed the yield on the two-year Treasury note below 4.10%, its lowest level since June 30th. The gains were limited to shorter-term bonds more sensitive to changes in the Feds policy outlook, with 10- to 30-year yields rising slightly on the day. "This is a disturbing update on the overall health of consumers," said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets. "This will provide a reason for the Fed to pause rate hikes next month." Short-term interest rate contracts, which show expectations for the Feds rate decisions, indicated that traders are unwinding bets on a September rate hike and more than one rate hike by mid-2027. The fading of expectations for Fed tightening accelerated over the past week, beginning on August 7th with weaker-than-expected July employment data, and continued this week with dovish July consumer and producer price data.On August 14, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren demanded that Treasury Secretary Bessett explain the Trump administrations basis for intervening in the yen, continuing the veteran senators consistent practice of scrutinizing the Trump administrations foreign exchange policies. In a letter dated August 13, Warren wrote, "To date, the administration has not provided detailed justification for this intervention, nor has it formally disclosed how much taxpayer-related funds were used to purchase yen." Following the action taken on July 31, Bessett confirmed media reports of the first joint US-Japan intervention in the foreign exchange market since 1998 to support the yen, but has not yet specified the amount of funds used.On August 14th, 2026, the Jiaxing Meteorological Observatory issued a yellow rainstorm warning signal at 21:25: Affected by strong rain clouds, the rainfall in Xincheng Town, Xiuzhou District, has exceeded 30 mm in the past hour. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue in Wangjiangjing Town and Xincheng Town of Xiuzhou District over the next 3 hours, with accumulated rainfall exceeding 50 mm. At 21:40 on August 14th, 2026, the Jiaxing Meteorological Observatory upgraded the yellow rainstorm warning signal to a red rainstorm warning signal.August 14th - U.S. consumer confidence fell for the first time in three months as households worried about deteriorating business conditions and rising inflation. According to data released Friday by the University of Michigan, the preliminary reading of the consumer confidence index for August fell to 51, down from the final reading of 55.2 in July. The median forecast from economists was 55. Consumers expect prices to rise 4.3% over the next year, a slight increase from the previous month and significantly higher than levels before the outbreak of the conflict with Iran in February. They also expect prices to rise at an annualized rate of 3.3% over the next five to ten years. After two consecutive months of improvement, consumer confidence in both the short-term and long-term economic outlook deteriorated. Consumer expectations for the labor market have changed little since the beginning of the year. The survey showed that consumers are increasingly worried about inflation, while concerns about unemployment have declined. The survey covered responses collected between July 28th and August 10th. During this period, the national average gasoline price hovered above $4 per gallon. Another report released Friday showed that U.S. retail sales in July saw their biggest drop in more than a year, as consumers reduced purchases of cars and online stores.On August 14th, according to South Korean media reports, SK Hynix significantly increased its equipment investment and R&D spending in the first half of this year to meet the growing demand for AI-specific storage. Cash expenditures for acquiring tangible assets exceeded 18 trillion won, an increase of over 70% compared to the same period last year. According to SK Hynixs semi-annual report released on the 14th, on a consolidated basis, the companys cash expenditures for acquiring tangible assets in the first half of this year were 18.3288 trillion won, a 72.7% increase compared to 10.6157 trillion won in the same period last year. R&D investment also increased significantly. Total R&D expenditures in the first half of this year were 6.0428 trillion won, a 98.4% increase compared to 3.0456 trillion won in the same period last year. Of this, 5.8163 trillion won was used for ongoing development costs. With the increasing demand for AI-specific high-bandwidth memory (HBM), server DRAM, and enterprise-grade solid-state drives (SSDs), SK Hynix is accelerating the expansion of its production facilities.

AUD/USD falls to 0.68 on dismal Aussie/China statistics and risk aversion

Alina Haynes

Sep 01, 2022 15:16

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As bears cheer on weak Australian statistics and a risk-off mindset on Thursday, the AUD/USD drops to a new 1.5-month low near 0.6800. Yet, adverse concerns about China, its major customer, may also be to blame for the current weakness of the Aussie pair.

 

Caixin Manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.5 from 50.2 predicted and 50.4 earlier, signaling the steepest decline in activity in three months.

 

In other news, Home Loans in Australia dropped by -7.0% in July, worse than the -3.0% drop forecast and the 3.3% drop seen in June. For the same time period, Investment Lending for Homes fell by -11.2%, compared to a drop of 6.3% in the previous month. It should be noted that contrary to projections of a 1.5% expansion, private capital expenditure in Australia shrank by 0.3% in the second quarter (Q2).

 

The risk premium on 10-year US Treasuries has risen to a two-month high of about 3.21 percent, and the risk premium on 2-year bond coupons has risen to its highest level since at least 2007. The S&P 500 Futures were trading at 3,930, down 0.36 percent intraday, their lowest level since late July as of publishing.

 

Recent market sentiment has been pushed down by worries about another ship blocking the Suez Canal, skepticism about China's covid circumstances, poor data, and conflicts with the United States over Taiwan. The president of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-Wen, has recently expressed an interest in bolstering ties with the United States in the semiconductor industry.

 

In light of the Fed's recent aggressive posture, despite conflicting data, AUD/USD bears are likely to hold control as China-related news is also unfavorable. Before Friday's release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, traders may find some diversion in today's release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August, which is expected to be 52.8 from 52.0 before (NFP).

 

If the AUD/USD drops below May's low at 0.6830, the next major support is seen in early July near 0.6760. Alternately, a support-turned-resistance line from early August, near 0.6850, will join the 0.6830 barrier to probe the pair's corrective slide.