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Joerg Kraemer, economist at Commerzbank: The recent strengthening of the euro, especially against the US dollar, is likely to continue in the coming months, which will reduce the price competitiveness of European products on the world market.Conflict Details: 1. Russian Ministry of Defense: Russian forces occupied Komishuvakha in eastern Ukraine. 2. The Ukrainian military said it attacked oil refineries in Krasnodar and Syzran at night. 3. The Ukrainian Air Force said Russia launched 537 drones and 45 missiles during the nighttime attacks. 4. Russian Ministry of Defense: Russia attacked Ukrainian businesses, rocket and aviation facilities, and military airfields at night. 5. The regional governor stated that Russias attack on Zaporizhia, Ukraine, resulted in one death and at least 24 injuries. 6. Russian Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov: Russian forces are continuing their offensive along all fronts, and the task of establishing a buffer zone along the border between the Ukrainian Sumy and Kharkiv regions is progressing smoothly. 7. Russia and Ukraine are engaged in fierce battles over the key cities of Krasnodar (also known as Pokrovsk in Ukraine) and Konstantinovka in the Donetsk region. Other Developments: 1. Hungarian Foreign Minister: The European Commission has become a "Ukrainian Commission," representing the interests of Ukraine, not those of an EU member state. 2. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kallas stated that the return of frozen Russian assets to Russia is unthinkable unless Russia pays war reparations for Ukraine. 3. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Moscow exploited the lead-up to the summit to launch the attack and called for energy and banking sanctions. 4. Russian Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov stated that Russia controls 99.7% of Ukraines Luhansk region, 79% of the Donetsk region, 74% of the Zaporizhia region, and 76% of the Kherson region. 5. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kallas stated that EU countries have been asked to submit proposals for new sanctions against Russia next week.On August 31, officials of the Yemeni Houthi armed forces issued a statement saying that the group is ready to confront Israel after Israel launched an airstrike in Sanaa on Thursday, killing a senior official.On August 30th, local time, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto stated after the EU Foreign Ministers meeting in Copenhagen that the EU and most of its member states are not interested in achieving peace and will continue to provide funding and arm Ukraine. The European Commission is acting as a "Ukrainian Commission," representing Ukraines interests rather than those of EU member states.On August 30, Russia and Ukraine engaged in a fierce battle over the Donetsk regions key cities of Krasnaya Zvezda (known as Pokrovsk in Ukraine) and Konstantinovka on August 29. The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video on the 29th claiming Russian forces used Grad rockets to strike Ukrainian positions in the direction of Krasnaya Zvezda. The Russian news agency TASS also released a video claiming Russian forces launched strikes against Ukrainian targets near Konstantinovka.

AUD/USD falls to 0.68 on dismal Aussie/China statistics and risk aversion

Alina Haynes

Sep 01, 2022 15:16

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As bears cheer on weak Australian statistics and a risk-off mindset on Thursday, the AUD/USD drops to a new 1.5-month low near 0.6800. Yet, adverse concerns about China, its major customer, may also be to blame for the current weakness of the Aussie pair.

 

Caixin Manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.5 from 50.2 predicted and 50.4 earlier, signaling the steepest decline in activity in three months.

 

In other news, Home Loans in Australia dropped by -7.0% in July, worse than the -3.0% drop forecast and the 3.3% drop seen in June. For the same time period, Investment Lending for Homes fell by -11.2%, compared to a drop of 6.3% in the previous month. It should be noted that contrary to projections of a 1.5% expansion, private capital expenditure in Australia shrank by 0.3% in the second quarter (Q2).

 

The risk premium on 10-year US Treasuries has risen to a two-month high of about 3.21 percent, and the risk premium on 2-year bond coupons has risen to its highest level since at least 2007. The S&P 500 Futures were trading at 3,930, down 0.36 percent intraday, their lowest level since late July as of publishing.

 

Recent market sentiment has been pushed down by worries about another ship blocking the Suez Canal, skepticism about China's covid circumstances, poor data, and conflicts with the United States over Taiwan. The president of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-Wen, has recently expressed an interest in bolstering ties with the United States in the semiconductor industry.

 

In light of the Fed's recent aggressive posture, despite conflicting data, AUD/USD bears are likely to hold control as China-related news is also unfavorable. Before Friday's release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, traders may find some diversion in today's release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August, which is expected to be 52.8 from 52.0 before (NFP).

 

If the AUD/USD drops below May's low at 0.6830, the next major support is seen in early July near 0.6760. Alternately, a support-turned-resistance line from early August, near 0.6850, will join the 0.6830 barrier to probe the pair's corrective slide.

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