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Spot gold and silver both fell by more than 1.00% during the day, currently trading at $4,361.17 per ounce and $68.23 per ounce, respectively.According to Politico, the Trump administration is secretly assessing the possibility of considering Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf as a potential partner, or even a future leader of Iran.US-Israel-Iran Conflict: ① Iran 1. Iran claims to have shot down a US-made Lucas drone. 2. The commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Aerospace Force stated that the fighting will continue. 3. Iran claims that 430 locations in Tehran have been attacked since the start of the conflict, resulting in over 600 deaths. 4. Iranian Revolutionary Guard: It has complete control of the Strait of Hormuz and does not need to lay mines in the Persian Gulf. 5. Iranian Revolutionary Guard: We are determined to respond to any threat with a deterrent force commensurate with the threat itself. We warn the US military that if you attack power facilities, we will attack power facilities. 6. Iranian Defense Council: If the Iranian coast or islands are attacked, it will cut off shipping lanes and communication lines in the Gulf and lay mines at sea, including mines from the Iranian coast. The only way for non-belligerent countries to pass through the strait is through coordination with Iran. 7. Iranian Embassy in Afghanistan: After Iran issued a firm warning, Trump has backed out of plans to attack energy infrastructure. 8. Iranian media listed 11 targets in the Middle East that Iran is focusing on, including power generation and desalination plants, among others, including a UAE nuclear power plant. 9. Iranian Foreign Ministry: Trumps remarks are aimed at lowering energy prices and buying time for his military plans. 10. Iranian media: A senior Iranian security official stated that no negotiations have been held to date, and there are currently no negotiations. We will continue to respond and defend the country. 11. US media: An Iranian official claimed that the Iranian official who had contacted the US was Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, which he denied. 12. Iranian media: An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that recently, friendly countries sent messages implying that the US requested an end to the war through negotiations, but Iran has not responded. Irans position on the Strait of Hormuz and the conditions for ending the war remain unchanged. 13. Senior Iranian official Rezaei stated that the war will continue until all losses are compensated, all economic sanctions are lifted, and that the US will not interfere in Iranian affairs. 14. Iranian official: Iran and the US have exchanged messages through Egypt and Turkey, and the US has not accepted the core conditions of compensation for losses and acknowledgment of its aggression against Iran. The US has requested a meeting with Ghalibaf on Saturday. 15. The Iranian president spoke with the Pakistani prime minister, emphasizing the need to ease tensions through diplomacy; the Iranian foreign minister spoke with the Pakistani foreign minister to discuss the regional situation. ②US 1. The USS Ford aircraft carrier arrived in Greece for repairs. 2. Iranian media: A US fighter jet was hit and crashed in Kuwait. 3. US media reported that the US military is considering sending airborne troops to Iran, which could be used to seize Kharg Island. 4. US Central Command: The US has struck more than 9,000 targets; damaged or destroyed more than 140 Iranian ships. 5. US Secretary of the Interior: The US is in contact with Iran regarding possible future solutions. 6. US Vice President Vance spoke with the Israeli prime minister to discuss issues such as negotiations with Iran. 7. Trump stated that he is consulting with Iran on reaching a broader agreement. 8. Trump stated: ① There have been productive talks with Iran over the past two days, and strikes against Iranian energy facilities will be suspended for five days. ② What is happening in Iran can be described as "regime change." ③ Responding to Iranian medias denial of negotiations: The most recent Iran talks were held on Sunday, and an agreement with Iran could be reached within 5 days, or even faster. ④ Fifteen points of consensus have been reached with Iran, including that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons. A phone call may be made with the Iranian side, hoping for a meeting as soon as possible. ⑤ The person we are talking to is not Irans Supreme Leader, and we have not yet received his response. ⑥ We do not want to see any uranium enrichment activities, but we also want the uranium that has already been enriched. ③ Israel 1. Israeli Prime Minister: Trump believes that military achievements can be used to push for an agreement. 2. Israeli media: Iran has agreed to freeze its missile program for five years. 3. British media: Israeli officials believe that the US and Iran will hold talks as early as this week in Islamabad. 4. The Israeli military claims to have carried out a series of large-scale strikes in Tehran, attacking multiple Iranian headquarters facilities. This will continue to weaken Irans military system and capabilities. 5. Israeli media: Iran and the United States will hold talks in the Pakistani capital this week. The US has set April 9 as the target date for ending the war. ④ Other 1. Chairman of the Japan Petroleum Association: There are currently no plans to use Iranian crude oil as a substitute. 2. The UAE stated that a total of 7 missiles and 16 drones attacked the country on Monday. 3. Iranian media: The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps drone units launched a large-scale attack on separatist positions in Erbil, Iraq. 4. Bahrains Defense Forces: Since the start of the Iranian attacks, they have intercepted and destroyed 147 missiles and 282 drones. ⑤ Strait of Hormuz 1. Iran claims to have shot down two US drones near the Strait of Hormuz. 2. Iran denies charging exorbitant fees to ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. 3. Omans Foreign Minister: Pushing for arrangements for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. 4. Iranian media: A senior Iranian security official stated that the Strait of Hormuz will not be restored to its pre-war state through psychological warfare. 5. Trump: If the plan works, the Strait of Hormuz will soon reopen. The strait may be jointly controlled by me and Ayatollah. Once an agreement is reached, oil prices will plummet. 6. Russian Foreign Ministry: Russia opposes the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but such issues should be considered within the overall context. 7. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi: The Strait of Hormuz is not closed to shipping; the disruption is attributed to fears stemming from the aggressive posture of the US and Israel. 8. The South Korean Foreign Minister, in a phone call with the Iranian Foreign Minister, urged ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. 9. US intelligence assessments suggest that approximately a dozen Iranian mines have been laid in the Strait of Hormuz. Gaza Situation: 1. The Israeli military claims it will again bomb the bridge over the Litani River in southern Lebanon. 2. UNIFIL reports shootings and explosions near its headquarters in southern Lebanon. 3. Israeli military: Eliminated an armed Hamas group inside an SUV in central Gaza.According to aviation news platform The Air Current, Boeing (BA.N) has received approval from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration to launch new maximum takeoff weight versions of its 787-9 and 787-10 long-range wide-body aircraft.Federal Reserves Daly: There is no single most likely path for monetary policy. Policy is currently in a good position.

AUD/USD falls to 0.68 on dismal Aussie/China statistics and risk aversion

Alina Haynes

Sep 01, 2022 15:16

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As bears cheer on weak Australian statistics and a risk-off mindset on Thursday, the AUD/USD drops to a new 1.5-month low near 0.6800. Yet, adverse concerns about China, its major customer, may also be to blame for the current weakness of the Aussie pair.

 

Caixin Manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.5 from 50.2 predicted and 50.4 earlier, signaling the steepest decline in activity in three months.

 

In other news, Home Loans in Australia dropped by -7.0% in July, worse than the -3.0% drop forecast and the 3.3% drop seen in June. For the same time period, Investment Lending for Homes fell by -11.2%, compared to a drop of 6.3% in the previous month. It should be noted that contrary to projections of a 1.5% expansion, private capital expenditure in Australia shrank by 0.3% in the second quarter (Q2).

 

The risk premium on 10-year US Treasuries has risen to a two-month high of about 3.21 percent, and the risk premium on 2-year bond coupons has risen to its highest level since at least 2007. The S&P 500 Futures were trading at 3,930, down 0.36 percent intraday, their lowest level since late July as of publishing.

 

Recent market sentiment has been pushed down by worries about another ship blocking the Suez Canal, skepticism about China's covid circumstances, poor data, and conflicts with the United States over Taiwan. The president of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-Wen, has recently expressed an interest in bolstering ties with the United States in the semiconductor industry.

 

In light of the Fed's recent aggressive posture, despite conflicting data, AUD/USD bears are likely to hold control as China-related news is also unfavorable. Before Friday's release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, traders may find some diversion in today's release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August, which is expected to be 52.8 from 52.0 before (NFP).

 

If the AUD/USD drops below May's low at 0.6830, the next major support is seen in early July near 0.6760. Alternately, a support-turned-resistance line from early August, near 0.6850, will join the 0.6830 barrier to probe the pair's corrective slide.

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