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January 31 – With the House of Representatives in recess and unable to consider the appropriations bill, the U.S. federal government entered a technical, partial shutdown at midnight local time on January 31. Analysts point out that although the shutdown is expected to be short-lived, it once again highlights the structural predicament of U.S. fiscal politics. In recent years, temporary funding, short-term extensions, and marginal shutdowns have become the norm in congressional budget battles, with government operations frequently hampered by political disagreements. Currently, the market generally believes that the direct impact of this technical shutdown on financial markets and economic operations is limited, but if subsequent congressional negotiations are again stalled, the risk of a prolonged shutdown and a wider impact cannot be ruled out.January 31st - The US government officially began a partial shutdown early this morning local time. This followed the Senates passage of a spending bill to fund most federal government departments, which was then submitted to the House of Representatives for consideration. However, because House members were not in Washington and would not return until Monday (February 2nd), the Senate vote could not prevent a partial government shutdown.January 31st - According to the UKs Daily Telegraph, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer responded to US President Trumps remarks on Sino-British cooperation in Shanghai on the 30th, stating that ignoring China would be "unwise." "It would be unwise to simply say we should ignore it. You know, French President Macron has already visited (China) and had exchanges, and German Chancellor Merz is also coming to exchange views," Starmer said. "It would not be in our national interest for Britain to be the only country refusing to engage (with China)." Starmer added, "In the past 24 hours, the opening of market access has been warmly welcomed by the business community. They have reported a change in the atmosphere and a significant increase in willingness to cooperate. This is good for our economy."On January 31st, China Merchants Securities, in its latest research report, also pointed out that its team recently surveyed liquor distribution channels in Henan, Anhui, Sichuan, and other regions. Overall demand is still declining (double-digit decline), but this is in line with previous expectations. Looking at different scenarios, business banquets are mainly small-scale events, mid-to-high-end dining remains sluggish, and gift-giving demand has partially rebounded. There is a clear differentiation among brands, with Moutai showing excellent sales performance due to pre-emptive stockpiling for the Spring Festival, while other brands are under pressure.On January 31, Michal Baltek, Vice Chairman of the Defense and Security Committee of the Slovak Parliament, stated in an interview with a reporter from China Central Television that the dispute surrounding Greenland is no longer merely a territorial or security issue, but reflects deep-seated challenges to US-EU relations, European strategic autonomy, and the international rules-based system. Baltek also stated that the USs use of trade tools to exert political pressure not only violates the spirit of international law but also undermines the rules-based international trading system.

After positive Japan Retail Trade statistics, the USD/JPY currency pair declines toward 138.50

Daniel Rogers

Aug 31, 2022 11:37

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The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen by less than 0.1 percent to 138.50 after upbeat economic data was released. Retail sales in Japan rose by 2.4% last year, beating both analysts' estimates of 1.9% growth and the prior report of 1.5% growth. Furthermore, retail sales have climbed to 0.8% on a monthly basis. Meanwhile, the report on Industrial Production is 1.8% higher than expected and 2.6% higher than the previous release.

 

Because the US dollar index (DXY) has done so well, bulls have been able to keep a firm grip on the asset. The DXY is aiming for a return to its two-decade high of 109.29 after encouraging data on consumer confidence and hawkish remarks from Fed governors.

 

When compared to July's 95.3 score, August's 103.2 reading on the Conference Board's (CB) Consumer Confidence survey is a significant gain. Improved faith in the economy boosts retail spending, which in turn supports the domestic currency. The DXY was also helped along by John Williams, president of the New York Fed Bank.

 

Fed Williams believes that interest rates will need to increase by more than 3.5 percent by the end of the year in order to slow the rate of inflation. He predicted that by the next year, inflation might drop to between 2.5% and 3%.

 

The release of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday remains the focal point of investors' attention this week. It is expected that employment growth numbers would remain satisfactory notwithstanding a halt in recruiting by a number of tech companies and the effects of dwindling liquidity. Reduced from 528k in the prior publication, the anticipated economic data is 300k.


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