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January 31 – With the House of Representatives in recess and unable to consider the appropriations bill, the U.S. federal government entered a technical, partial shutdown at midnight local time on January 31. Analysts point out that although the shutdown is expected to be short-lived, it once again highlights the structural predicament of U.S. fiscal politics. In recent years, temporary funding, short-term extensions, and marginal shutdowns have become the norm in congressional budget battles, with government operations frequently hampered by political disagreements. Currently, the market generally believes that the direct impact of this technical shutdown on financial markets and economic operations is limited, but if subsequent congressional negotiations are again stalled, the risk of a prolonged shutdown and a wider impact cannot be ruled out.January 31st - The US government officially began a partial shutdown early this morning local time. This followed the Senates passage of a spending bill to fund most federal government departments, which was then submitted to the House of Representatives for consideration. However, because House members were not in Washington and would not return until Monday (February 2nd), the Senate vote could not prevent a partial government shutdown.January 31st - According to the UKs Daily Telegraph, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer responded to US President Trumps remarks on Sino-British cooperation in Shanghai on the 30th, stating that ignoring China would be "unwise." "It would be unwise to simply say we should ignore it. You know, French President Macron has already visited (China) and had exchanges, and German Chancellor Merz is also coming to exchange views," Starmer said. "It would not be in our national interest for Britain to be the only country refusing to engage (with China)." Starmer added, "In the past 24 hours, the opening of market access has been warmly welcomed by the business community. They have reported a change in the atmosphere and a significant increase in willingness to cooperate. This is good for our economy."On January 31st, China Merchants Securities, in its latest research report, also pointed out that its team recently surveyed liquor distribution channels in Henan, Anhui, Sichuan, and other regions. Overall demand is still declining (double-digit decline), but this is in line with previous expectations. Looking at different scenarios, business banquets are mainly small-scale events, mid-to-high-end dining remains sluggish, and gift-giving demand has partially rebounded. There is a clear differentiation among brands, with Moutai showing excellent sales performance due to pre-emptive stockpiling for the Spring Festival, while other brands are under pressure.On January 31, Michal Baltek, Vice Chairman of the Defense and Security Committee of the Slovak Parliament, stated in an interview with a reporter from China Central Television that the dispute surrounding Greenland is no longer merely a territorial or security issue, but reflects deep-seated challenges to US-EU relations, European strategic autonomy, and the international rules-based system. Baltek also stated that the USs use of trade tools to exert political pressure not only violates the spirit of international law but also undermines the rules-based international trading system.

AUD/NZD is projected to dip below 1.1170 as market players focus on the RBA rate decision

Alina Haynes

Aug 31, 2022 11:34

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The AUD/NZD exchange rate has shown less conviction in its recent slide after printing a new four-day low below 1.1700. The cross dropped sharply on Tuesday after breaking below the crucial support level of 1.1200. It is expected that the asset will continue to drop after breaking through its immediate support at 1.1170, as investors remain cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision (RBA).

 

The Aussie Bulls fell on Tuesday after poor data on Australian Building Permits was made public. As expected, the latest economic data showed a drop to -25.9%, from the prior report's -17.2%. The monthly numbers also fell drastically, from -0.6% to -17.2%.

 

Interest rates are expected to be raised by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for the fourth time in a row on Tuesday. So far, the Australian economy has not breathed a sigh of relief as a result of falling pricing pressures. Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Australia is at 6.1% as of the second quarter, and it is quite expected that additional rate hikes will be necessary to bring it down. Furthermore, the Official Cash Rate (OCR) information from RBZ Governor Philip Lowe will be essential.

 

New Zealand kiwi bulls have been supported by upbeat Building Permits data. This latest economic report shows a significant improvement, with a reading of 5% compared to -2.2% in the prior report. For the market as a whole, investors are still picking themselves up from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) announcement of two more interest rate hikes for the remainder of the year. In reaction to the soaring inflation, Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor Adrian Orr said last week at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium that the central bank will announce a couple more interest rate increases.