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January 31 – With the House of Representatives in recess and unable to consider the appropriations bill, the U.S. federal government entered a technical, partial shutdown at midnight local time on January 31. Analysts point out that although the shutdown is expected to be short-lived, it once again highlights the structural predicament of U.S. fiscal politics. In recent years, temporary funding, short-term extensions, and marginal shutdowns have become the norm in congressional budget battles, with government operations frequently hampered by political disagreements. Currently, the market generally believes that the direct impact of this technical shutdown on financial markets and economic operations is limited, but if subsequent congressional negotiations are again stalled, the risk of a prolonged shutdown and a wider impact cannot be ruled out.January 31st - The US government officially began a partial shutdown early this morning local time. This followed the Senates passage of a spending bill to fund most federal government departments, which was then submitted to the House of Representatives for consideration. However, because House members were not in Washington and would not return until Monday (February 2nd), the Senate vote could not prevent a partial government shutdown.January 31st - According to the UKs Daily Telegraph, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer responded to US President Trumps remarks on Sino-British cooperation in Shanghai on the 30th, stating that ignoring China would be "unwise." "It would be unwise to simply say we should ignore it. You know, French President Macron has already visited (China) and had exchanges, and German Chancellor Merz is also coming to exchange views," Starmer said. "It would not be in our national interest for Britain to be the only country refusing to engage (with China)." Starmer added, "In the past 24 hours, the opening of market access has been warmly welcomed by the business community. They have reported a change in the atmosphere and a significant increase in willingness to cooperate. This is good for our economy."On January 31st, China Merchants Securities, in its latest research report, also pointed out that its team recently surveyed liquor distribution channels in Henan, Anhui, Sichuan, and other regions. Overall demand is still declining (double-digit decline), but this is in line with previous expectations. Looking at different scenarios, business banquets are mainly small-scale events, mid-to-high-end dining remains sluggish, and gift-giving demand has partially rebounded. There is a clear differentiation among brands, with Moutai showing excellent sales performance due to pre-emptive stockpiling for the Spring Festival, while other brands are under pressure.On January 31, Michal Baltek, Vice Chairman of the Defense and Security Committee of the Slovak Parliament, stated in an interview with a reporter from China Central Television that the dispute surrounding Greenland is no longer merely a territorial or security issue, but reflects deep-seated challenges to US-EU relations, European strategic autonomy, and the international rules-based system. Baltek also stated that the USs use of trade tools to exert political pressure not only violates the spirit of international law but also undermines the rules-based international trading system.

As the DXY looks for a correction, the USD/CHF is falling toward 0.9660

Daniel Rogers

Aug 30, 2022 11:56

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Breaking below the restricted consolidation zone between 0.9678 and 0.9682, the USD/CHF pair is heading lower. Depletion warnings were seen in the asset before, when it failed to rise beyond the key level of 0.9700. The US dollar index (DXY) has entered a corrective phase following a prolonged upswing, and the major currency has lacked the necessary conviction to rise over the key 0.9700 level.

 

After a rapid gain, investors opted to liquidate their long positions, sending the DXY down to around 108.68 at the open. In spite of Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman Jerome Powell's harsh comments at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, the asset continued its upward trend. The market was shaken by news that the Fed would prioritize slowing inflation over boosting economic growth.

 

A conservative approach to interest rates to moderate down inflation, which is eroding household earnings in the U.S. economy, is entirely acceptable from the perspective of households. Inflation in the United States is skyrocketing, so Fed policymakers can't afford to rest easy even if they show signs of fatigue.

 

Real Retail Sales is the only piece of data that matters to investors in the Swiss franc right now, and experts estimate that it will rise to 3.3% from 1.2%. Investors are aware of rising price pressures in the Swiss economy, which has a negative impact on retail sales figures. Despite this, there has been a noticeable increase in overall demand, which is reflected in the latest economic figures.