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January 31 – With the House of Representatives in recess and unable to consider the appropriations bill, the U.S. federal government entered a technical, partial shutdown at midnight local time on January 31. Analysts point out that although the shutdown is expected to be short-lived, it once again highlights the structural predicament of U.S. fiscal politics. In recent years, temporary funding, short-term extensions, and marginal shutdowns have become the norm in congressional budget battles, with government operations frequently hampered by political disagreements. Currently, the market generally believes that the direct impact of this technical shutdown on financial markets and economic operations is limited, but if subsequent congressional negotiations are again stalled, the risk of a prolonged shutdown and a wider impact cannot be ruled out.January 31st - The US government officially began a partial shutdown early this morning local time. This followed the Senates passage of a spending bill to fund most federal government departments, which was then submitted to the House of Representatives for consideration. However, because House members were not in Washington and would not return until Monday (February 2nd), the Senate vote could not prevent a partial government shutdown.January 31st - According to the UKs Daily Telegraph, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer responded to US President Trumps remarks on Sino-British cooperation in Shanghai on the 30th, stating that ignoring China would be "unwise." "It would be unwise to simply say we should ignore it. You know, French President Macron has already visited (China) and had exchanges, and German Chancellor Merz is also coming to exchange views," Starmer said. "It would not be in our national interest for Britain to be the only country refusing to engage (with China)." Starmer added, "In the past 24 hours, the opening of market access has been warmly welcomed by the business community. They have reported a change in the atmosphere and a significant increase in willingness to cooperate. This is good for our economy."On January 31st, China Merchants Securities, in its latest research report, also pointed out that its team recently surveyed liquor distribution channels in Henan, Anhui, Sichuan, and other regions. Overall demand is still declining (double-digit decline), but this is in line with previous expectations. Looking at different scenarios, business banquets are mainly small-scale events, mid-to-high-end dining remains sluggish, and gift-giving demand has partially rebounded. There is a clear differentiation among brands, with Moutai showing excellent sales performance due to pre-emptive stockpiling for the Spring Festival, while other brands are under pressure.On January 31, Michal Baltek, Vice Chairman of the Defense and Security Committee of the Slovak Parliament, stated in an interview with a reporter from China Central Television that the dispute surrounding Greenland is no longer merely a territorial or security issue, but reflects deep-seated challenges to US-EU relations, European strategic autonomy, and the international rules-based system. Baltek also stated that the USs use of trade tools to exert political pressure not only violates the spirit of international law but also undermines the rules-based international trading system.

GBP/JPY moves around 161.50 as Winter Energy Shock worries rise

Alina Haynes

Aug 26, 2022 15:14

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GBP/JPY is trading between 161.32-161.60 in Tokyo. After Wednesday's firmer rebound from 160.86, the cross is sideways. The cross rose after retesting Tuesday's low near 161.00, but the lack of a convincing reason caused it to drift sideways.

 

As the UK economy approaches a recession and energy shocks loom, the cross could reverse its drop. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, British gas and power costs are rising due to an embargo on Russian energy imports. As winter approaches, the energy regulator has enforced an 80% price cap hike.

 

The energy price cap hike will undoubtedly depress British homeowners. The administration has failed to cut the labor cost index, which is at its highest level in 40 years. Rising energy prices will reduce consumer confidence in the economy. The pound could be affected.

 

The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) conservative monetary policy has failed to stimulate the yen zone. The Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI for Japan was 51, lower than 51.8 and 52.1. Services PMI was 49.2, compared to 50.7 and 50.3.