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On January 31st, OCBC strategist Christopher Wong stated that golds price action "confirms the adage a sharp rise is inevitably followed by a sharp fall." He believes that while Warshs nomination as Fed Chair was the trigger, a correction was already inevitable. "Its like one of the excuses the market has been waiting for—to liquidate those parabolic price movements." Precious metals had already paved the way for sharp fluctuations, as soaring prices and volatility put pressure on traders risk models and balance sheets. Goldman Sachs noted in a report that the record wave of call option buying also "mechanically reinforced the upward momentum," as sellers of these options hedged against rising prices by buying more metal.On January 31, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko stated that the best guarantee for Ukraines security is a concrete guarantee of Russias security, a guarantee that no one in the West has offered. He emphasized, "If we believe that Ukrainian territory will not be used as a bridgehead threatening Russias security, then Ukraines security will also be guaranteed." The Russian Foreign Ministry previously stated that any scenario involving NATO member states deploying troops in Ukraine is absolutely unacceptable to Russia and could lead to a sharp escalation of the situation. The Russian Foreign Ministry also stated that statements from Britain and other European countries regarding the possible deployment of NATO troops in Ukraine are incitement to continue the conflict.January 31st - According to Yahoo Finance, Kevin Warsh, President Trumps nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman, appeared in newly released Epstein case documents released by the US government on Friday. The documents show that Warshs name was listed in the email guest list for the "2010 St. Barths Christmas" event, alongside figures such as Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich; he also attended a dinner hosted by British aristocrat William Astor. This revelation occurred on the same day Warsh was nominated for Fed chairman. His main controversy previously stemmed from his relationship with Republican donor Ronald Lauder, who was accused of influencing Trumps interest in Greenland during his first term and holding business interests there. Warsh may now need to address his relationship with Epstein and his 2010 Christmas trip, and there is also speculation that Trumps nomination is related to their shared social circle.January 31 – With the House of Representatives in recess and unable to consider the appropriations bill, the U.S. federal government entered a technical, partial shutdown at midnight local time on January 31. Analysts point out that although the shutdown is expected to be short-lived, it once again highlights the structural predicament of U.S. fiscal politics. In recent years, temporary funding, short-term extensions, and marginal shutdowns have become the norm in congressional budget battles, with government operations frequently hampered by political disagreements. Currently, the market generally believes that the direct impact of this technical shutdown on financial markets and economic operations is limited, but if subsequent congressional negotiations are again stalled, the risk of a prolonged shutdown and a wider impact cannot be ruled out.January 31st - The US government officially began a partial shutdown early this morning local time. This followed the Senates passage of a spending bill to fund most federal government departments, which was then submitted to the House of Representatives for consideration. However, because House members were not in Washington and would not return until Monday (February 2nd), the Senate vote could not prevent a partial government shutdown.

EUR/USD approaches 1.00 despite a potential German energy crisis; Jackson Hole forecasts a pullback

Daniel Rogers

Aug 25, 2022 14:59

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The EUR/USD has detected buying activity after trading sideways at 0.9960 throughout the Tokyo session. As the US dollar index (DXY) trades badly at the open, the pair is climbing to reclaim the fabled 1.0000 level. The DXY has fallen to approximately 108.50 after experiencing selling pressure close to 108.50.

 

The contrasting reactions of market players to Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell's remarks on interest rate guidance at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium have perplexed investors. The DXY is volatile due to two schools of thought regarding the Fed's stance on interest rates following a decline in the private sector.

 

As a result of the Fed's aggressive interest rate rises, PMI numbers have decreased dramatically. As a result, one school of thought contends that the Fed should slow down because a decline in economic activity could hurt the confidence of the private sector. In addition, the second school of thought favors maintaining the existing rate of interest rate hikes, as price stability is the primary objective.

 

On the Eurozone front, the probability of a German energy crisis is rising as the energy-supplying Nord Stream 1 pipeline from the Baltic Sea to Germany undergoes unscheduled maintenance over the last three days of August. During a time when the German energy market is already suffering supply difficulties, new supply constraints may cause energy prices to skyrocket.