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On January 31st, OCBC strategist Christopher Wong stated that golds price action "confirms the adage a sharp rise is inevitably followed by a sharp fall." He believes that while Warshs nomination as Fed Chair was the trigger, a correction was already inevitable. "Its like one of the excuses the market has been waiting for—to liquidate those parabolic price movements." Precious metals had already paved the way for sharp fluctuations, as soaring prices and volatility put pressure on traders risk models and balance sheets. Goldman Sachs noted in a report that the record wave of call option buying also "mechanically reinforced the upward momentum," as sellers of these options hedged against rising prices by buying more metal.On January 31, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko stated that the best guarantee for Ukraines security is a concrete guarantee of Russias security, a guarantee that no one in the West has offered. He emphasized, "If we believe that Ukrainian territory will not be used as a bridgehead threatening Russias security, then Ukraines security will also be guaranteed." The Russian Foreign Ministry previously stated that any scenario involving NATO member states deploying troops in Ukraine is absolutely unacceptable to Russia and could lead to a sharp escalation of the situation. The Russian Foreign Ministry also stated that statements from Britain and other European countries regarding the possible deployment of NATO troops in Ukraine are incitement to continue the conflict.January 31st - According to Yahoo Finance, Kevin Warsh, President Trumps nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman, appeared in newly released Epstein case documents released by the US government on Friday. The documents show that Warshs name was listed in the email guest list for the "2010 St. Barths Christmas" event, alongside figures such as Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich; he also attended a dinner hosted by British aristocrat William Astor. This revelation occurred on the same day Warsh was nominated for Fed chairman. His main controversy previously stemmed from his relationship with Republican donor Ronald Lauder, who was accused of influencing Trumps interest in Greenland during his first term and holding business interests there. Warsh may now need to address his relationship with Epstein and his 2010 Christmas trip, and there is also speculation that Trumps nomination is related to their shared social circle.January 31 – With the House of Representatives in recess and unable to consider the appropriations bill, the U.S. federal government entered a technical, partial shutdown at midnight local time on January 31. Analysts point out that although the shutdown is expected to be short-lived, it once again highlights the structural predicament of U.S. fiscal politics. In recent years, temporary funding, short-term extensions, and marginal shutdowns have become the norm in congressional budget battles, with government operations frequently hampered by political disagreements. Currently, the market generally believes that the direct impact of this technical shutdown on financial markets and economic operations is limited, but if subsequent congressional negotiations are again stalled, the risk of a prolonged shutdown and a wider impact cannot be ruled out.January 31st - The US government officially began a partial shutdown early this morning local time. This followed the Senates passage of a spending bill to fund most federal government departments, which was then submitted to the House of Representatives for consideration. However, because House members were not in Washington and would not return until Monday (February 2nd), the Senate vote could not prevent a partial government shutdown.

GBP/JPY moves around 161.50 as Winter Energy Shock worries rise

Alina Haynes

Aug 26, 2022 15:14

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GBP/JPY is trading between 161.32-161.60 in Tokyo. After Wednesday's firmer rebound from 160.86, the cross is sideways. The cross rose after retesting Tuesday's low near 161.00, but the lack of a convincing reason caused it to drift sideways.

 

As the UK economy approaches a recession and energy shocks loom, the cross could reverse its drop. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, British gas and power costs are rising due to an embargo on Russian energy imports. As winter approaches, the energy regulator has enforced an 80% price cap hike.

 

The energy price cap hike will undoubtedly depress British homeowners. The administration has failed to cut the labor cost index, which is at its highest level in 40 years. Rising energy prices will reduce consumer confidence in the economy. The pound could be affected.

 

The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) conservative monetary policy has failed to stimulate the yen zone. The Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI for Japan was 51, lower than 51.8 and 52.1. Services PMI was 49.2, compared to 50.7 and 50.3.