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January 31 – With the House of Representatives in recess and unable to consider the appropriations bill, the U.S. federal government entered a technical, partial shutdown at midnight local time on January 31. Analysts point out that although the shutdown is expected to be short-lived, it once again highlights the structural predicament of U.S. fiscal politics. In recent years, temporary funding, short-term extensions, and marginal shutdowns have become the norm in congressional budget battles, with government operations frequently hampered by political disagreements. Currently, the market generally believes that the direct impact of this technical shutdown on financial markets and economic operations is limited, but if subsequent congressional negotiations are again stalled, the risk of a prolonged shutdown and a wider impact cannot be ruled out.January 31st - The US government officially began a partial shutdown early this morning local time. This followed the Senates passage of a spending bill to fund most federal government departments, which was then submitted to the House of Representatives for consideration. However, because House members were not in Washington and would not return until Monday (February 2nd), the Senate vote could not prevent a partial government shutdown.January 31st - According to the UKs Daily Telegraph, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer responded to US President Trumps remarks on Sino-British cooperation in Shanghai on the 30th, stating that ignoring China would be "unwise." "It would be unwise to simply say we should ignore it. You know, French President Macron has already visited (China) and had exchanges, and German Chancellor Merz is also coming to exchange views," Starmer said. "It would not be in our national interest for Britain to be the only country refusing to engage (with China)." Starmer added, "In the past 24 hours, the opening of market access has been warmly welcomed by the business community. They have reported a change in the atmosphere and a significant increase in willingness to cooperate. This is good for our economy."On January 31st, China Merchants Securities, in its latest research report, also pointed out that its team recently surveyed liquor distribution channels in Henan, Anhui, Sichuan, and other regions. Overall demand is still declining (double-digit decline), but this is in line with previous expectations. Looking at different scenarios, business banquets are mainly small-scale events, mid-to-high-end dining remains sluggish, and gift-giving demand has partially rebounded. There is a clear differentiation among brands, with Moutai showing excellent sales performance due to pre-emptive stockpiling for the Spring Festival, while other brands are under pressure.On January 31, Michal Baltek, Vice Chairman of the Defense and Security Committee of the Slovak Parliament, stated in an interview with a reporter from China Central Television that the dispute surrounding Greenland is no longer merely a territorial or security issue, but reflects deep-seated challenges to US-EU relations, European strategic autonomy, and the international rules-based system. Baltek also stated that the USs use of trade tools to exert political pressure not only violates the spirit of international law but also undermines the rules-based international trading system.

The euro/dollar exchange rate has dipped below 1.00 as markets await Jackson Hole and the Fed's inflation target

Alina Haynes

Aug 26, 2022 15:19

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Falling below 0.9965 during Friday's Asian session, the EUR/USD emerges from hiding after three days. Reports concerning the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Fed's cautious tone leading up to Chairman Jerome Powell's talk at the Jackson Hole Symposium, not to mention the critical US PCE inflation data, may be to blame for the recent dip in the main currency pair.

 

Bears in the EUR/USD pair, who are worried about higher inflation in the bloc, were faced with a challenge late Thursday when Reuters reported unnamed sources saying that ECB reinvestments could continue alongside rate hikes. The latest developments in China, Taiwan, and Iran might possibly drag the price down.

 

According to Reuters, the United States suspends 26 Chinese carrier flights in retaliation to China's stance, which renews Sino-American antagonism and bolsters demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven currency. The number of American diplomats stationed in Taiwan may have increased in tandem with the island's escalating military spending. In addition, the previously unconcerned attitude was called into question after a letter quoting Vice President Joe Biden said, "The United States bombed Iranian-backed troops in Syria to defend American people both at home and abroad."

 

It should be remembered that the mixed prints of Germany's IFO statistics and an upward revision to the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (Q2) combined with the hawkish European Central Bank's (ECB) July policy meeting tended to favor the bulls prior.

 

On the other side, US dollar bulls were undeterred by higher US numbers and contradicting Fed statements. Furthermore, China's stimulus of nearly a trillion dollars may put downward pressure on the currency.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its biggest daily gain in a week, while rates on 10-year US Treasuries declined to 3.03% from a high of 3.100% the day before. Consequently, the S&P 500 Futures are down 0.10 percent intraday as of press time.

 

Going forward, EUR/USD swings will depend on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's ability to defend bold moves during his yearly Jackson Hole address.

 

In addition, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July, will be quite important. According to projections, annual growth will slow to 4.7% from 4.8%, while monthly growth may slow to 0.3% from 0.6%. It's worth noting that the September GfK Consumer Confidence Survey results for Germany, forecast at -31.8 versus -30.6 previously, could possibly affect the EUR/USD in the short term.

 

The EUR/USD pair is now being capped by a declining trend line that has been in place for the past two weeks at the 1.0000 parity level. The bears are currently looking for the 0.9900 level before focusing on the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the pair's May-August advances near 0.9855.