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Officials in Washington and Moscow have discussed U.S. help in resuming Russian gas sales to Europe as Europes energy relations with Russia fall into a cold winter, eight people familiar with the matter told Reuters. Europe slashed imports of Russian gas after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, a move that cost Russian exporter Gazprom $7 billion the following year. Trump is pushing for peace between Russia and Ukraine, which increases the likelihood of a thaw in gas relations. Sources said allowing Moscow to re-emerge in the EU gas market could help consolidate a peace deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin. While much of Europe is seeking alternative supplies, some buyers have stayed, and industry officials say more may return once a peace deal is reached.Important news 1. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week was 228,000, lower than expected. Individual stock news 1. Apple (AAPL.O) made an unusual statement in its attempt to save the $20 billion Google (GOOG.O) search deal, saying that the deal may not be necessary in the long run. 2. Toyota Motor (TM.N) expects its operating profit to be 3.8 trillion yen in the fiscal year ending March 2026, a year-on-year decrease of 21%. This forecast is far lower than the average analyst expectation of 4.7 trillion yen. 3. Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD.N) Q1 adjusted earnings increased by 7.9%, better than analysts expectations of 3.68%. The company maintained its fiscal year guidance and expected Ebitda to be in line with its mid-term expectations of 4% to 8%. 4. Netflix (NFLX.O) launched a revamped homepage and application, integrating OpenAI-powered search tools. 5. Arm (ARM.O) expects Q1 revenue of $1 billion to $1.1 billion in fiscal 2026. Excluding certain items, earnings per share were 30 to 38 cents, lower than analysts expectations. 6. CrowdStrike (CRWD.O) announced a 5% layoff, and the CEO said this was a reflection of the development of AI technology. 7. Morgan Stanley issued a research report, maintaining its "hold and wait" rating on Marvell Technology (MRVL.O) with a target price of $90. 8. Prashanth Menon, head of Teslas (TSLA.O) India region, has resigned.On May 8, the World Gold Council mentioned in a report that gold has performed very well so far this year. But the speed at which it happened makes people worry about its durability. The association believes that structural reasons will keep investment demand booming, including uncertainty surrounding US policies and their impact on the US dollar, greater sensitivity to higher inflation expectations and greater likelihood of interest rate cuts, and lower gold accumulation levels compared to previous cycles. Of course, this will not prevent potential pullbacks due to profit-taking or signs of progress in trade negotiations. Similarly, for the bull market in gold to last longer, consumers need to be given time to adapt to higher prices.World Gold Council: Last month was the strongest inflow since March 2022, coupled with the continued surge in gold prices, pushing the global gold ETFs asset management scale to US$379 billion, an increase of 10% that month. At the same time, gold trading volumes in all markets around the world have risen sharply. By region, Asia saw a surge in capital inflows, strong demand in North America, and moderate capital outflows in Europe.World Gold Council: We expect US policy and structural risks to continue to drive gold investment. Profit-taking may give the market pause, but it may also encourage consumers.

The GBP/USD has retested a multi-month low below 1.1700, despite hawkish signals from the options market

Daniel Rogers

Aug 29, 2022 14:42

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Despite bullish signs from the options market, Friday's continuation of the GBP/USD decline to a new low since March 2020 has GBP/USD leaning bearish near 1.1680.

 

Nonetheless, the GBP/USD one-month risk reversal (RR), which is the difference between call options and put options, recorded a four-day gain at Friday's end, peaking at 0.025. The RR value flips from negative -0.480 last week to positive 0.295 this week.

 

The recent aggressive language from the Fed and economic worries regarding the UK, especially in the context of political uncertainty, should have served as clues for the negative inclination.

 

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in his much-anticipated Jackson Hole speech on Friday that restoring price stability will take some time and involve "forceful" use of the central bank's tools. The policymaker also said that maintaining a restrictive approach for "some time" will be necessary to restore price stability.

 

Goldman Sachs expects a recession for the United Kingdom in Q4 2022, and lowers its GDP forecast for the year from 3.7% to 3.5% on a separate page. The US bank concludes in its latest report that the recession will be "very modest."