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On January 31st, a research report from CITIC Securities pointed out that the Trump administrations domestic and foreign policies are expected to profoundly impact global markets this year. CITIC Securities believes that one of the Trump administrations core objectives is to push down long-term interest rates through personnel changes at the Federal Reserve and a series of initiatives to boost the traditional economy and support the midterm elections. Success would be beneficial for global stock markets and commodities. However, its foreign policy focuses on domestic affairs and voter demands, and may only have a short-term impact on major asset classes. The extent of the fiscal deficit expansion remains uncertain, which is beneficial for gold and non-ferrous metals. The midterm election results are crucial; although Trump has tried his best to gain an advantage, a Republican defeat would be a short-term negative for risk assets other than US Treasuries.U.S. Border Affairs Director Homan: My message is consistent with the position that has been in place since President Trump took office on January 20: we will conduct large-scale deportations, but will prioritize arresting criminals and those who threaten public safety.On January 31, it was reported that on January 30 local time, the Director of the White House Office of Management and Budget issued a memo to department heads instructing agencies whose funding was due at midnight to begin preparing for a government shutdown. These agencies included the Department of Defense, Department of Homeland Security, State Department, Treasury Department, Department of Labor, Department of Health and Human Services, Department of Education, Department of Transportation, and Department of Housing and Urban Development. Russ Vought stated, “Given that Congress is clearly unable to complete its work before the funding expires, affected agencies should now implement orderly shutdown plans. Employees should report to work on time, fulfill their next regular work duties, and conduct orderly shutdown activities. The government will continue to work with Congress to address recently raised issues and complete the funding work for fiscal year 2026. We hope this shutdown will not be too long.”January 31 – According to a report in the New York Times, documents released by the U.S. Department of Justice on Friday show that billionaire businessman Howard Lutnick, who served as Commerce Secretary in the Trump administration, planned to visit Jeffrey Epsteins private island. This planned visit took place in 2012 – a time when Lutnick had previously claimed to have severed ties with Epstein. Records show that in December 2012, Lutnick emailed Epstein to inquire about his location, stating that he, his family, and another family were in the Caribbean and asking if he could join them for a meal. Epstein replied through an assistant with his location on Little St. James Island, near the coast of St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the two sides finalized the arrangements for a luncheon. The documents confirm that the visit did take place: the meeting was scheduled for December 23, 2012, and the following day, Epsteins assistant forwarded Lutnick a message from Epstein that read, "Its a pleasure to see you." In recent years, the visits of prominent figures closely associated with Epstein to the island have been subject to public scrutiny, but Lutnicks planned itinerary for this trip had not been disclosed before.New Energy Vehicles: 1. Zhijie officially announced its first OTA update for the entire series this year. 2. Shanghai: Provides subsidies for car replacement and upgrades, with subsidies for purchasing new energy passenger vehicles not exceeding 15,000 yuan. 3. Chinas car dealer inventory warning index for January was 59.4%, down 2.9 percentage points year-on-year and up 1.7 percentage points month-on-month. 4. Cui Dongshu: The total number of public charging piles in December 2025 will reach 4.72 million, up 92,000 month-on-month and 1.14 million year-on-year. Integrated Circuits (Chips): 1. Alibaba clarified its "Cloud + AI + Chip" strategy, with PPU chip shipments already reaching hundreds of thousands of units. 2. Cambricon: Expects net profit of 1.85 billion to 2.15 billion yuan in 2025, turning a profit. 3. SK Hynixs first-quarter profit is expected to exceed expectations due to rising chip prices. 4. Reports indicate that Hitachi plans to divest its memory business for a maximum price of 200 billion yen. 5. Apple CEO Tim Cook: The advanced chip manufacturing technology used in the chips has led to supply constraints. Memory prices had a negligible impact on the first fiscal quarter. Artificial Intelligence: 1. Indian Science and Technology Minister: India will launch an AI model next month. 2. Alibabas 1000 Questions: The DeepPlanning benchmark has officially launched. 3. Tesla discontinues its flagship model, betting 20 billion on a million robots. 4. Li Auto executives confirm entry into humanoid robots. Other: 1. A 240-ton-class commercial reusable high-pressure staged combustion liquid oxygen-kerosene engine successfully completed a long-range test. 2. Japanese media: Apple will prioritize releasing high-end iPhone models this year. 3. Market news: Several more AI researchers and Siri team executives have recently left Apple, including Siri senior director Stuart Powers, who left to join Google.

On weaker China PMI, stimulus focus, and US NFP data, USD/CNH rose above 6.9100

Daniel Rogers

Sep 01, 2022 15:24

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While the USD/CNH halted its three-day rally on Wednesday, it has since recovered some of its lost ground during Thursday's Asian trading as risk aversion and disappointing activity statistics push the pair higher. The pair's purchasers, however, are treading carefully as they await the introduction of the Chinese government's stimulus plan.

 

Caixin Manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.5 from 50.2 predicted and 50.4 earlier, signaling the steepest decline in activity in three months. In doing so, the private manufacturing index confirms the gloomy state of the world's largest industrial sector, just as the official NBS PMI does.

 

According to Reuters's citing of state-run media, the Chinese cabinet has announced that the country will unveil the specifics of a set of recently announced policy changes at the start of September. According to the report, China's cabinet also plans to instruct commercial banks to make available medium- and long-term loans for infrastructure development and modernization.

 

Their power is bolstered by factors like China's covid-led lockdowns and rising tensions with Taiwan. The president of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-Wen, has recently expressed an interest in bolstering ties with the United States in the semiconductor industry.

 

The USD/CNH exchange rate also appears to be driven by central bankers' aggressiveness and strong US Treasury rates notwithstanding deteriorating data. Nonetheless, US 10-year Treasury rates have increased to a two-month high of around 3.21 percent, and 2-year bond coupons have increased to their highest levels since 2007 at around 3.51 percent. The S&P 500 Futures were trading at 3,930, down 0.36 percent intraday, their lowest level since late July as of publishing.

 

The US ADP Employment Change rose by 132K on Wednesday, below the 288K forecast and the 270K prior reading. However, year-over-year wage growth in August was 7.6 percent in the United States, which put Fed policymakers on edge. Following the release of the statistics, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester told Reuters on Tuesday that she did not anticipate a rate cut from the Fed in 2019. Further, Lory Logan, the recently installed president of the Dallas Fed, has joined the ranks of hawkish central bankers by declaring, "Restoring price stability is our primary aim."

 

High inflation numbers and hawkish pronouncements from European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymakers highlight the central bankers' typically hawkish posture not only in the United States, but also in the Eurozone and Japan.

 

Positive news about the Chinese stimulus and the expected increase in the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August from 52.0 to 52.8 on Friday should attract traders ahead of the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday (NFP).

 

At the time of writing, a USD/CNH decline seems unlikely until a support line near 6.8850 is broken. Even still, Monday's multi-month high of 6.9326 seems to have drawn buyers.