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February 2nd - US Treasuries rose slightly across most maturities, driven by the spillover effects of the precious metals crash to other markets and increased demand for safe-haven assets. Following Trumps nomination of Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman last week, money markets are betting on three Fed rate cuts this year, boosting Treasury prices. Jefferies International Chief Economist Mohit Kumar stated, "Warsh has always been hawkish and a critic of the Feds balance sheet expansion. But logically, its hard to say that Warsh won Trumps favor based on his hawkish stance." The market is also weighing the potential adjustments Warsh might make to the balance sheet, speculating that he might quickly push for balance sheet reduction. Guy Stear, Head of Developed Markets Strategy at Amundi, said, "The market expects lower short-term interest rates, while the Fed will control its balance sheet, meaning the yield curve will steepen. The problem is, if long-term interest rates actually start to rise during this steepening process, then the Fed may face pressure to expand its balance sheet."The UKs FTSE 100 index rose 0.8%, hitting a new record high.Brazils National Petroleum Agency: Brazils oil production reached 4.015 million barrels per day in December, a 17.4% increase over the previous year.Brazils National Petroleum Institute (NPC) predicts that Brazils oil production will reach a record 3.77 million barrels per day in 2025, a 12.3% increase over the previous year.February 2 – US companies have criticized Polands Digital Affairs Ministrys plan to introduce a digital services tax, arguing that the move would unfairly target some of the largest foreign investors. Public consultation on the draft bill, which proposes a tax of up to 3% on digital platforms that sell advertising, process user data, or facilitate online transactions, will apply to companies with global revenue exceeding €1 billion and reporting at least 25 million złoty (approximately $7 million) in revenue in Poland. The Trump administration has threatened retaliatory action against the EUs taxation of US tech companies, and this dispute, following trade and the Greenland issue, is becoming another point of transatlantic friction. Marta Pawlak, Director of Legal and Public Policy at the US Chamber of Commerce in Poland, stated, "This proposal ignores the positive impact US investors have had on the Polish economy over the years and signals a departure from the long-standing relationship of mutual trust. US companies have $60 billion in assets in Poland. This policy sends a worrying signal to US investors across all sectors."

WTI stays in positive zone despite a dip in Asia

Jan 10, 2023 14:43

截屏2022-12-29 下午4.54.13_1024x576.png 

 

West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, is down during the Asian session, losing about 0.4% at the time of writing amid optimism that China's demand will increase after the government set new import limitations. However, overnight and at the start of the week, the news provided economic support for its faltering economy, while the US Dollar sank, allowing investors to enter the black gold rise at a lower cost.

 

China has reopened its borders to international visitors for the first time since March 2020, when it implemented travel restrictions. Elsewhere, China has continued to demolish a large portion of its draconian zero-COVID movement regulations. According to the BBC, incoming travelers will no longer be required to be quarantined, marking a dramatic change in the country's Covid policy as it fights an outbreak. They will continue to require documentation of a negative PCR test conducted within 48 hours after flight.

 

As a result, oil prices increased early on Monday in anticipation of an uptick in demand from China, as the nation set new import curbs and offered economic support to its faltering economy. Last observed, spot West Texas Intermediate crude was priced at $ 74.57 per barrel.

 

ANZ Bank analysts explained: "China announced a new batch of import limits, an indication that the world's largest importer is gearing up to meet increased demand."

 

"The relaxation of COVID-19 regulations has already increased travel. According to the Ministry of Transport, approximately 34.7 million domestic journeys were made on the first day of the Spring Festival travel rush. This is around 40% higher than comparable days in 2022. Approximately 2.1 billion trips are anticipated during the next 40 days. This comes amid tightened supply,'' the analysts added.

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