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The Federation of Indian Automobile Dealers Association (FADA): Passenger car retail sales in June increased by 4.84% year-on-year, and the country is cautiously optimistic about the short-term outlook. However, it is necessary to remain vigilant considering the shortage of rare earths, geopolitical tensions and the spillover effects of US tariffs.On July 7, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may be temporarily suspending its one-year interest rate cut cycle. Most economists predict that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep interest rates unchanged this week, while sending dovish signals to assess the effectiveness of economic recovery. The bank recently stated that interest rates have entered a neutral range, downplaying the urgency of further interest rate cuts and hinting that it may adopt a quarterly interest rate cut rhythm in the future, rather than adjusting at every policy meeting. It is worth noting that there were differences of opinion at the last interest rate meeting. Given that the current economic recovery momentum is still unstable, further interest rate cuts are still possible this year.Market News: Trump welcomed Netanyahu and expressed optimism about reaching an Israel-Hamas agreement "this week."On July 7, the 27th Senate election of the Japanese Diet was scheduled for voting on the 20th. The latest opinion poll conducted by Kyodo News from the 5th to the 6th showed that the opposition camp was more popular than the ruling coalition, and nearly half of the respondents hoped that the ruling coalition composed of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party would not achieve the goal of more than half of the seats. The Japanese Senate is responsible for legislative review and government supervision. It has 248 seats. The term of office of members is six years, and half of them are re-elected every three years. This election will focus on 125 seats. In addition to 74 constituency seats and 50 proportional representation seats, there is also 1 by-election seat. According to Japanese media, the results of this Senate election will determine the fate of Shigeru Ishibas cabinet. If the ruling coalition wins less than 50 seats, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may resign or reorganize the ruling coalition.On July 7, Goldman Sachs said it expects the eight OPEC+ members to increase their oil production quotas by 550,000 barrels per day in September, thereby completely canceling the voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day. OPEC+ hopes to restore idle production capacity to normal as global oil demand shows resilience. Goldman Sachs said: "The decision to accelerate the pace of production increases announced on Saturday strengthens our confidence. We have pointed out since last summer that OPEC+ will shift to a more long-term balanced strategy, focusing on normalizing idle production capacity and market share, supporting internal cohesion, and strategically restricting US shale oil supply." Goldman Sachs expects that the crude oil production of the eight OPEC+ members will increase by 1.67 million barrels per day from March to September to 33.2 million barrels per day, of which Saudi Arabia accounts for more than 60% of the increase.

WTI is rangebound around $74.00 despite escalating recession concerns

Daniel Rogers

Jan 06, 2023 11:11

In the early Tokyo session, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on NYMEX are fluctuating in a limited range around $74.00. The oil price is fighting to acquire a direction after a straight decline to about $73.00 from the important resistance of $81.00.

 

Despite the publication of reliable United States Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change data, the black gold remained hidden in the woods. According to the organization, the United States economy has generated fresh 235K vs. the forecasts of 150K and the earlier release of 127K.

 

Solid payroll data from the United States is a double-edged sword for the oil price. No doubt, bigger demand for labor force is often essential to cater to bumper demand from companies to address operations, which displays a spectacular requirement of oil to execute operations. On the other hand, a tight US labor market will be hampered by greater wage inflation, which would leave the Federal Reserve (Fed) with no room to consider slowing the rate of policy tightening until the end of CY2023 and could spark recession fears.

 

TD Securities analysts noted in their analysis of the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting minutes that officials were largely in agreement about the need to tighten monetary policy in the near future. Therefore, it anticipates a rate increase of 50 basis points (bps) in February, followed by rate increases of 25 bps in March and May. It is anticipated that the Fed will agree on a target range for the Fed funds rate between 5.25 and 5.50 percent by May."

 

Meanwhile, a considerable pace adopted by the Chinese administration in reopening the economy for spurting the volume of economic activity has resulted in an upside revision of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) predictions. The National Bureau of Statistics increased China's real GDP growth for 2021 from 8.1% to 8.4%, providing a stronger comparison base for 2022. This could result in a future increase in oil prices.

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