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On May 28, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghae issued a statement strongly condemning the US military attack on parts of Bandar Abbas in southern Iran early that morning. Baghae stated that this act was a blatant violation of Irans territorial integrity and national sovereignty, and a serious breach of international law and the UN Charter. Baghae pointed out that the UN Security Council has a responsibility to fulfill its legal obligations and hold the US accountable.On May 28th, according to Investinglive, gold prices fell to a two-month low this week due to a lack of substantial progress on the US-Iran issue and the risk of a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. Despite market expectations of an imminent agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, no official confirmation has been released. Currently, there is only a lot of noise and rumors. Furthermore, in the past few days, both the US and Iran have conducted limited military strikes, but the US continues to maintain that the ceasefire agreement remains in effect. Regarding the Federal Reserve, a growing number of policymakers are now advocating abandoning the dovish bias, so we can expect this to happen at the June FOMC meeting. Moreover, if there are no changes in the US-Iran situation before then, with persistently high inflation and resilient US data, the market may see a hawkish surprise. In the short term, if the situation is resolved and the Strait reopens, lower oil prices and rising expectations of interest rate cuts may support gold prices. However, if the Strait remains closed for a longer period and oil prices remain high, the risk of the Federal Reserve being forced to raise interest rates will increase.Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman: Iran expresses solidarity with Oman following “threats from U.S. officials.”According to RIA Novosti, the head of Russias Foreign Intelligence Service stated that the European Union is accelerating its military buildup and is evolving into a military alliance against Russia.On May 28th, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated on Thursday that governments may be inclined to strengthen control over monetary authorities, making the maintenance of central bank independence even more crucial amidst an increasingly challenging global order. Lagarde said, "In an increasingly difficult world, the challenge is no longer just maintaining legal independence, but more importantly, maintaining the credibility needed to exercise that independence." "History has taught us a very clear lesson: building trust takes a long time, but losing it takes only a moment." Lagarde noted that over the past decade, the "de facto independence" of central banks in nearly half of the countries representing approximately 75% of global GDP has deteriorated. She also emphasized that policymakers face an increasingly unfavorable environment, including more frequent supply shocks, rising fiscal pressures, and declining public trust in public institutions. In this context, credibility earned through action is becoming increasingly decisive.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD struggles to extend gains on encouraging ADP Employment data from the United States

Daniel Rogers

Jan 06, 2023 11:12

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After falling to almost $1,825.00 during the late New York session, the gold price (XAU/USD) has tried a recovery. The precious metal is battling to continue its rebound as robust United States Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change data has prompted the risk of the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining higher interest rate stability for an extended duration.

 

S&P500 suffered a major sell-off from the market participants, displaying a risk-aversion theme, as bigger additions of fresh payrolls in the United States job market will require the Fed to sustain its aggressive position on interest rates for a longer term. This has also caused a possibility of recession in the US economy. The Employment Change (Dec) jumped to 235K in contrast to the predicted 150K and the previous release of 127K. In addition, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims (IJC) have decreased to 204K compared to the expected 225K.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) achieved a roaring rally after sustaining above the important resistance of 104.00 and rose to reach 105.00. In addition, 10-year US Treasury yields detected demand and rose to approximately 3.72 percent.

 

Investors will closely monitor Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday. After noticing optimistic signals from ADP Employment Change, it is quite likely that the US NFP will report data that exceeds expectations. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%.