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May 23 - According to Saudi Arabias Al Arabiya TV, sources revealed on the 22nd that a draft agreement between the United States and Iran, which is "close to being reached," is expected to be released within hours.Domestic News: 1. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and eight other departments jointly issued a document to crack down on illegal cross-border securities, futures, and fund operations. 2. The CSRC is seriously investigating cases of illegal cross-border business operations by Tiger Brokers and other institutions: it plans to confiscate all illegal gains of Tiger Brokers, Futu Securities, and Changqiao Securities, both domestically and internationally. 3. The CSRC plans to fine Futu Securities 1.85 billion yuan and Tiger Brokers 411.2 million yuan. 4. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) stated that it has never required Chinese technology companies to refrain from accepting foreign investment. 5. The "15th Five-Year Plan" implementation plan for new energy storage development has been completed and will be released after the consultation process is completed. 6. The China Chamber of Commerce for Machinery and Electronic Products expressed serious concern about the European Commissions recently published legislative proposal for the "Industrial Accelerator Act." 7. The National Bureau of Statistics released the main data bulletin of the 2025 National 1% Population Sample Survey. 8. The Ministry of Commerce and five other departments adjusted the "Catalogue for the Management of Export of Precursor Chemicals to Specific Countries (Regions)." 9. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) strengthened measures to address the risks of forged documents and money laundering and raised account opening standards. 10. The Peoples Bank of China announced that it will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation on May 25, with a term of one year. 11. The Ministry of Commerce held a roundtable meeting with foreign-invested enterprises in the pharmaceutical industry: expanding opening up in related fields. 12. Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited released its quarterly review results, including MiniMax and Zhipu in the Hang Seng Tech Index. International News: 1. Warsh was sworn in, emphasizing that the Federal Reserve will be "reform-oriented". 2. The US "Starship" completed its 12th test flight as planned. 3. The US Director of National Intelligence offered his resignation to Trump. 4. The EU expanded sanctions against Iran, including actions that "threaten freedom of navigation in the Middle East". 5. Federal Reserve Governor Waller: The current stance is to keep interest rates stable in the short term. If inflation expectations lose their anchor, interest rate hikes will be necessary. 6. The US interest rate futures market now expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates as early as October; traders have fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike by the end of the year. 7. Middle East Situation – ① Sources: The US is preparing a new round of military strikes against Iran, but no final decision has been made. ② Pakistani sources: The increasing demands from the US and Iran on uranium and the Strait of Hormuz have led to a stalemate in negotiations. ③ The UAE joins Saudi Arabia and Qatar in urging Trump not to restart the war against Iran. ④ Iranian media reports that the Pakistani Army Chief of Staff has departed for Iran, reportedly to meet with senior Iranian officials. ⑤ Rubio: Some progress has been made in negotiations with Iran, but I dont want to exaggerate; we havent reached that stage yet. ⑥ Iranian Foreign Ministry: The differences between Iran and the US are "deep and extensive," and there is no agreement to be reached; the current Iran-US negotiations do not involve the nuclear issue. Musk: Congratulations to the SpaceX team on the successful first launch and splashdown of Starship V3.According to Iranian state media, the Iranian military has entered a state of maximum alert.Federal Reserve Statement: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously elected Kevin Warsh as Chairman of the FOMC.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD struggles to extend gains on encouraging ADP Employment data from the United States

Daniel Rogers

Jan 06, 2023 11:12

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After falling to almost $1,825.00 during the late New York session, the gold price (XAU/USD) has tried a recovery. The precious metal is battling to continue its rebound as robust United States Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change data has prompted the risk of the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining higher interest rate stability for an extended duration.

 

S&P500 suffered a major sell-off from the market participants, displaying a risk-aversion theme, as bigger additions of fresh payrolls in the United States job market will require the Fed to sustain its aggressive position on interest rates for a longer term. This has also caused a possibility of recession in the US economy. The Employment Change (Dec) jumped to 235K in contrast to the predicted 150K and the previous release of 127K. In addition, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims (IJC) have decreased to 204K compared to the expected 225K.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) achieved a roaring rally after sustaining above the important resistance of 104.00 and rose to reach 105.00. In addition, 10-year US Treasury yields detected demand and rose to approximately 3.72 percent.

 

Investors will closely monitor Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday. After noticing optimistic signals from ADP Employment Change, it is quite likely that the US NFP will report data that exceeds expectations. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%.


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