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On May 20th, Wood Mackenzie, in a new report, stated that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would pose the biggest threat to the global energy market in decades. Currently, daily crude oil and condensate production in the Gulf region has decreased by over 11 million barrels. Meanwhile, more than 80 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) annually (approximately 20% of global supply) remain unable to reach the global market. In its latest report, the agency presented three different scenarios: a swift peace, a summer reconciliation, and a prolonged disruption. Each scenario outlines a different timeline for ending the conflict and reopening the strait, and assesses the potential impact on oil and gas supply, prices, energy demand, and the broader global economy. Peter Martin, the firms economics director, stated, "The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical choke point in the global energy market, and a prolonged closure would have far more than just an energy crisis. The longer it lasts, the greater the impact on energy prices, industrial activity, trade flows, and global economic growth."On May 20, Premier Li Qiang met with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Li Qiang pointed out that China is willing to further expand trade with Russia, implement the upgraded bilateral investment agreement, deepen cooperation in energy, agriculture, connectivity, and green and low-carbon development, strengthen the alignment of the Belt and Road Initiative with the Eurasian Economic Union, ensure the safe, stable, and high-quality development of the China-Europe Railway Express, and achieve a higher level of mutual benefit and win-win results. Both sides should successfully hold cultural and people-to-people activities such as the "China-Russia Year of Education," deepen exchanges and cooperation in youth, culture, tourism, and sports, and continuously enhance mutual understanding and friendship between the people. China is willing to strengthen cooperation with Russia on multilateral platforms, actively implement global governance initiatives, and promote the international community to jointly safeguard fairness and justice.Futures Market Summary | Wednesday, May 20th, CCTV News Highlights: 1. Xi Jinping holds a ceremony to welcome the Russian Presidents visit to China. 2. Xi Jinping holds talks with the Russian President. 3. Xi Jinping and the Russian President jointly meet with reporters. 4. Xi Jinping and the Russian President jointly attend and address the opening ceremony of the "China-Russia Year of Education". 5. At the invitation of Xi Jinping, the President of Serbia will pay a state visit to China. 6. Li Qiang meets with the Russian President. 7. Li Qiang signs a State Council decree promulgating the "Regulations for the Implementation of the Mineral Resources Law of the Peoples Republic of China". 8. The service sector economy maintains steady growth and continues to release its development potential. 9. All systems of the Shenzhou-23 manned spaceflight mission conduct launch site drills. 10. The State Council Information Office holds a press conference with Chinese and foreign journalists entitled "Striving Individuals on the New Journey". 11. National electricity consumption in April increased by 6.0% year-on-year. 12. The "Regulations on Supervision and Management of Online Food Sales Operators Implementation of Food Safety Responsibilities" come into effect today. 13. The Supreme Peoples Procuratorate deploys special supervision of public interest litigation for water pollution prevention and control in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. 14. Iran vows to resolutely counter aggression; US says it will continue its naval blockade. 15. Hezbollah claims to have destroyed one of Israels Iron Dome systems. 16. NATO officials say the US will withdraw approximately 5,000 troops from Europe. 17. Multiple UN agencies work together to combat the Ebola outbreak. 18. Heatwave warnings in many parts of the eastern US affect over 30 million people.The China Earthquake Networks Center officially determined that a magnitude 4.0 earthquake occurred in the sea area of Taitung County, Taiwan at 20:25 on May 20, with a focal depth of 21 kilometers.On May 20, GDS Holdings Limited (09698.HK) announced that it confirms that for the full year of 2026, the previously announced total revenue guidance will be between RMB 12,400 million and RMB 12,900 million, the adjusted EBITDA will be between RMB 5,750 million and RMB 6,000 million, and the capital expenditure will be approximately RMB 9,000 million, remaining unchanged.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD struggles to extend gains on encouraging ADP Employment data from the United States

Daniel Rogers

Jan 06, 2023 11:12

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After falling to almost $1,825.00 during the late New York session, the gold price (XAU/USD) has tried a recovery. The precious metal is battling to continue its rebound as robust United States Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change data has prompted the risk of the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining higher interest rate stability for an extended duration.

 

S&P500 suffered a major sell-off from the market participants, displaying a risk-aversion theme, as bigger additions of fresh payrolls in the United States job market will require the Fed to sustain its aggressive position on interest rates for a longer term. This has also caused a possibility of recession in the US economy. The Employment Change (Dec) jumped to 235K in contrast to the predicted 150K and the previous release of 127K. In addition, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims (IJC) have decreased to 204K compared to the expected 225K.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) achieved a roaring rally after sustaining above the important resistance of 104.00 and rose to reach 105.00. In addition, 10-year US Treasury yields detected demand and rose to approximately 3.72 percent.

 

Investors will closely monitor Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday. After noticing optimistic signals from ADP Employment Change, it is quite likely that the US NFP will report data that exceeds expectations. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%.