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Fitch Ratings: We expect global oil supply to exceed demand in 2026, based on the average annual figure.Fitch Ratings: The current surge in oil prices reflects a temporary logistical supply disruption, rather than a permanent loss of production capacity.Fitch Ratings: The oil market is expected to return to surplus by September 2026. 1. US non-farm payrolls increased by 172,000 in May, exceeding market expectations of 85,000. The US unemployment rate remained stable at 4.3% for the second consecutive month, in line with market expectations. 2. Following the release of the non-farm payroll data, the market priced in further tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. US interest rate futures data showed that the probability of a Fed rate hike in December rose from 48% to 63%. 3. Analyst Anstey commented on the US non-farm payroll data: This will undoubtedly completely overturn any reason for the Fed to cut rates in the coming months. If Warsh starts advocating for rate cuts at this months policy meeting, he will look out of place. 4. According to Irans Fars News Agency on the 5th, a source close to the Iranian negotiating team said that reports in Saudi Arabian media that Iran had agreed to transfer some of its enriched uranium reserves to a third country were untrue. The source said that the negotiations between Iran and the US have not yet addressed nuclear-related issues, which have been postponed to be discussed in subsequent dialogues. 5. Lindsay Rosner, Head of Multi-Sector Fixed Income Investments at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, commented on the US non-farm payrolls: Recent data suggests that we are increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve does not need to worry about labor market issues. The Federal Reserve will "focus on inflation, and what will ultimately determine the Feds next move will be how long this (Iran) war lasts." 6. Nick Timiraos, the Feds mouthpiece: This jobs report wont completely resolve the debate about the extent to which the Fed should consider raising interest rates later this year, but it does further illustrate that the case for a rate cut in the near term has largely disappeared. 7. According to a Bloomberg survey, OPEC crude oil production fell to its lowest level in decades in May, as the US blockade of Iran and continued instability in the Persian Gulf region continued to suppress production. OPEC oil production fell by 1.22 million barrels per day in May (half of which came from Iran), to 16.33 million barrels per day, the lowest level in at least 37 years. 8. The White House: US Middle East envoy Witkov has met with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi. The two sides agreed to meet again next Saturday. 9. London Bullion Market Association (LBMA): As of the end of May 2026, London vaults held 9,392 tons of gold, an increase of 0.21% from the previous month. 10. US President Trump: The jobs report that just came out is very strong, and the stock market should rise, not fall. This has been the case for the past 200 years. Economic growth does not mean inflation!June 5th - The 4th China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo will be held from June 22nd to 26th, 2026 at the China International Exhibition Center (Shunyi Hall) in Beijing. It is the worlds first national-level exhibition themed on supply chains. During the expo, the China Chamber of International Commerce will hold the inaugural meeting of its Overseas Investment and Cooperation Working Committee on the morning of June 24th (Wednesday) at Hall W1-2 of the China International Exhibition Center (Shunyi Hall). Leveraging the high-end platform advantages of the Supply Chain Expo, the committee aims to empower Chinese enterprises to rationally and orderly expand their cross-border operations.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD struggles to extend gains on encouraging ADP Employment data from the United States

Daniel Rogers

Jan 06, 2023 11:12

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After falling to almost $1,825.00 during the late New York session, the gold price (XAU/USD) has tried a recovery. The precious metal is battling to continue its rebound as robust United States Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change data has prompted the risk of the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining higher interest rate stability for an extended duration.

 

S&P500 suffered a major sell-off from the market participants, displaying a risk-aversion theme, as bigger additions of fresh payrolls in the United States job market will require the Fed to sustain its aggressive position on interest rates for a longer term. This has also caused a possibility of recession in the US economy. The Employment Change (Dec) jumped to 235K in contrast to the predicted 150K and the previous release of 127K. In addition, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims (IJC) have decreased to 204K compared to the expected 225K.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) achieved a roaring rally after sustaining above the important resistance of 104.00 and rose to reach 105.00. In addition, 10-year US Treasury yields detected demand and rose to approximately 3.72 percent.

 

Investors will closely monitor Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday. After noticing optimistic signals from ADP Employment Change, it is quite likely that the US NFP will report data that exceeds expectations. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%.