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On May 14th, US international trade commodity prices rose sharply in April, with import prices (market expectation +1.0%) rising 1.9% month-over-month and export prices (market expectation +1.1%) surging 3.3%. This much-anticipated increase indicates that the ongoing conflict with Iran continues to exert pressure on input costs, a point already reflected in the Feds Beige Book in early April as a compression of corporate profit margins. Core import prices (excluding fuel) had already begun to rise significantly before the Iran conflict, and this months 0.8% increase was the same as in February, but this may already include the secondary impact of rising energy prices. Food and feed prices were also significantly affected by rising oil prices, rising 1.1% in March and then another 0.9% in April. Industrial supplies and raw materials (excluding fuel) rose 1.6%; fuel prices surged 16.3%. Capital goods prices were also worrying, rising 1.1%. Consumer goods rose 0.4%, a relatively moderate increase, but still high; automobile prices fell slightly by 0.1%.On May 14th, executives from over ten well-known American companies accompanied President Trump on his visit to China, including Apple CEO Tim Cook, Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and Qualcomm President and CEO Cristiano Amon. In an interview, Amon stated that the Chinese economy is dynamic.The SC crude oil futures contract fell 2.00% during the day, currently trading at 617.40 yuan per barrel.The European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre reports a 5.5-magnitude earthquake in the Colombian region.May 14th - Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has increased this week, but analysts warn that more vessels are turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) tracking signals during transit. According to Lloyds List, a shipping publication, tanker owners are preparing for prolonged shipping disruptions as regional risks remain high. Current traffic volume is still far below pre-conflict levels. At that time, approximately 130 vessels carrying about 20% of the worlds oil and gas supply passed through the strait daily.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD struggles to extend gains on encouraging ADP Employment data from the United States

Daniel Rogers

Jan 06, 2023 11:12

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After falling to almost $1,825.00 during the late New York session, the gold price (XAU/USD) has tried a recovery. The precious metal is battling to continue its rebound as robust United States Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change data has prompted the risk of the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining higher interest rate stability for an extended duration.

 

S&P500 suffered a major sell-off from the market participants, displaying a risk-aversion theme, as bigger additions of fresh payrolls in the United States job market will require the Fed to sustain its aggressive position on interest rates for a longer term. This has also caused a possibility of recession in the US economy. The Employment Change (Dec) jumped to 235K in contrast to the predicted 150K and the previous release of 127K. In addition, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims (IJC) have decreased to 204K compared to the expected 225K.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) achieved a roaring rally after sustaining above the important resistance of 104.00 and rose to reach 105.00. In addition, 10-year US Treasury yields detected demand and rose to approximately 3.72 percent.

 

Investors will closely monitor Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday. After noticing optimistic signals from ADP Employment Change, it is quite likely that the US NFP will report data that exceeds expectations. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%.