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On May 28th, Federal Reserve Chairman Mohamed Mussaleem stated that policymakers cannot expect a potential productivity boom driven by artificial intelligence to alleviate persistently high inflation. Mussaleem noted, "I think it would be risky to rely on improved future productivity growth prospects to solve our current inflation problem." The conflict with Iran has reignited upward pressure on prices and prompted more policymakers to warn that further interest rate hikes may be necessary if inflation remains high. Mussaleem warned that, after adjusting for inflation, the Feds benchmark interest rate is currently below the so-called "neutral level"—a level that neither inhibits nor stimulates the economy. He also pointed out that the labor market remains stable, inflation is "significantly above" the Feds 2% target, and long-term inflation expectations are "gradually rising."The U.S. EIA natural gas storage figures for the week ending May 22 will be released in ten minutes.US Treasury bonds continued to rise; the 10-year yield fell 5 basis points to 4.43%.On May 28th, according to two US officials speaking to Axios, US and Iranian negotiators have reached an agreement on a 60-day memorandum of understanding aimed at extending the ceasefire and initiating negotiations on Irans nuclear program; however, Trump has not yet given final approval, requesting a few days to consider it. Signing the memorandum of understanding would be the most significant diplomatic breakthrough since the outbreak of the war, but further intensive negotiations are still needed to reach a final agreement addressing Trumps nuclear demands. US officials stated that the 60-day memorandum of understanding will stipulate that navigation in the Strait of Hormuz will be "unrestricted." One US official said this means no tolls will be charged, and no harassment will be carried out; Iran must clear all mines from the strait within 30 days. Another US official stated that the US maritime blockade will also be lifted, but this process will proceed in proportion to the progress of the resumption of commercial shipping. Officials indicated that the memorandum of understanding will include a commitment from Iran not to develop nuclear weapons. The memorandum will also stipulate that the primary negotiating topic during the 60-day window will be how to handle Irans highly enriched uranium and how to respond to Irans uranium enrichment activities. As part of the negotiations, the United States pledged to discuss lifting sanctions and unfreezing Iranian funds. The memorandum of understanding will also include discussions on establishing a mechanism to help Iran begin receiving material and humanitarian aid.Federal Reserves Mossala: Inflation is significantly above target, and expectations are rising.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD struggles to extend gains on encouraging ADP Employment data from the United States

Daniel Rogers

Jan 06, 2023 11:12

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After falling to almost $1,825.00 during the late New York session, the gold price (XAU/USD) has tried a recovery. The precious metal is battling to continue its rebound as robust United States Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change data has prompted the risk of the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining higher interest rate stability for an extended duration.

 

S&P500 suffered a major sell-off from the market participants, displaying a risk-aversion theme, as bigger additions of fresh payrolls in the United States job market will require the Fed to sustain its aggressive position on interest rates for a longer term. This has also caused a possibility of recession in the US economy. The Employment Change (Dec) jumped to 235K in contrast to the predicted 150K and the previous release of 127K. In addition, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims (IJC) have decreased to 204K compared to the expected 225K.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) achieved a roaring rally after sustaining above the important resistance of 104.00 and rose to reach 105.00. In addition, 10-year US Treasury yields detected demand and rose to approximately 3.72 percent.

 

Investors will closely monitor Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday. After noticing optimistic signals from ADP Employment Change, it is quite likely that the US NFP will report data that exceeds expectations. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%.