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ECB President Christine Lagarde: It would be a mistake to say we need to ignore the current shocks; it is too early to draw such a conclusion.① Iran 1. Irans Interior Minister instructed border provinces to "eliminate the threat of a maritime blockade." 2. Irans Permanent Mission to Vienna: Claims that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons are a "monumental lie." 3. According to foreign media reports, Iran has begun restoring limited internet connections to some businesses and individuals. 4. Irans Oil Minister: Oil sales have been "favorable" since the outbreak of the war, and some funds will be used to restore industry. 5. An Iranian government spokesperson said that preliminary estimates indicate the US and Israeli military strikes have caused Iran $270 billion in losses. ② United States 1. The US military has increased the number of wounded in the war against Iran to nearly 400. 2. US officials: The US government will terminate sanctions waivers for Iranian maritime oil this week. 3. The US Treasury Department threatened to impose secondary sanctions on financial institutions supporting Iran. 4. The US Treasury Department: Short-term permits allowing the sale of Iranian oil will not be renewed after they expire in the coming days. 5. US officials: Ships seized by the US military and linked to Iran will be towed to a detention area in the Arabian Sea or Indian Ocean, and a permanent location will be determined. ③ Israel 1. Israel launched airstrikes on the Tyre and Nabatieh regions in southern Lebanon. 2. Trilateral talks between Israel, Lebanon, and the US concluded, with Israel and Lebanon agreeing to initiate direct negotiations. 3. US media: The head of Israels intelligence agency, Mossad, stated that he still seeks to overthrow the Iranian regime. ④ Strait of Hormuz 1. Iran—① Sources: Iran is considering suspending its shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to avoid undermining peace talks. 2. US—① US officials: The Strait of Hormuz is not being completely blocked; only ships entering and leaving Iranian ports are being targeted. ② US officials: More than 20 merchant ships have passed through the strait in the past 24 hours. ③ Vance on Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz: We can play this game too. ④ US Central Command: More than 10,000 US troops, more than ten warships, and dozens of aircraft are carrying out the mission of blocking Iranian ports. No ships have broken through the US blockade in the first 24 hours. 3. Other—① Iranian Ambassador to India: Indian oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz have not paid passage fees to Iran. ② Sources: A meeting on the Strait of Hormuz, led by France and the UK, will explore the possibility of taking economic measures against Iran if the strait remains closed. ⑤ Ceasefire Negotiations 1. Trump: Talks with Iran "may be held in Pakistan within the next two days." 2. Iran—① An official from the Iranian Embassy in Pakistan stated that a new round of US-Iran talks may be held this week or early next week. Iran will prioritize Islamabad as the location for the new round of talks. ② Iranian lawmakers: Will continue to participate in negotiations while thwarting US plots. ③ Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi and Omani Foreign Minister discussed the ceasefire and talks. 3. Pakistan—① Pakistani sources said Pakistan is calling for a 45-day extension of the US-Iran ceasefire. ② Pakistani President: Pakistan will strive to ensure the sustainability of the US-Iran peace process. ③ Pakistani Foreign Ministry: We invite the US and Iran to Islamabad for a second round of talks, but the date and time have not yet been determined. 4. Others—① The UN Secretary-General said the US and Iran are very likely to restart peace talks. ② Macron said he has spoken separately with the leaders of the US and Iran, calling for a swift resumption of negotiations and ensuring the implementation of the ceasefire. ⑥ Other Situations: 1. Russian Security Council: The US and Israel may be using negotiations to prepare for ground operations against Iran. 2. According to NBC News, citing an official, Lebanon and Israel agreed during the talks that Hezbollah should be completely disarmed and that Iran should no longer be allowed to influence Lebanons future. 3. Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson: There has absolutely been no discussion between Qatar and Iran regarding paying funds to prevent Iranian attacks on Qatar; any claims of such discussions are untrue.According to the network monitoring website DownDetector, user reports indicate that X is experiencing a malfunction within the United States.World Bank President: The World Bank may provide $80 billion to $100 billion in financing to countries severely impacted by the Middle East wars over the next 15 months.European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak in ten minutes.

Gold Price Prediction: The XAU/USD pair will fall below $1870 as yields rise ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech

Alina Haynes

Jan 10, 2023 14:55

截屏2023-01-09 下午5.31.06_1024x576.png

 

In the Tokyo session, the gold price (XAU/USD) has fallen below the immediate resistance of $1,870.00. The precious metal has broken through the consolidation formed in the band of $1,870.00-1,881.50 as demand for US government bonds deteriorates ahead of the speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday.

 

The 10-year US Treasury yields have risen beyond 3.54 percent, dampening risk appetite. Meanwhile, S&P500 futures have become volatile following a sell-off late in Monday's session, signaling caution in establishing positions in risky assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is anticipated to attempt a break above the immediate resistance of 103.00 into the auction area.

 

Investors anticipate Fed Powell's speech for fresh cues, as it will provide a head start for the entirety of CY2023. Despite a sharp reduction in December wage inflation, some Fed policymakers continue to endorse a terminal rate prediction of 5.00-5.25%.

 

Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed Bank, argued that interest rates between 5% and 5.25 percent are fair. Also, the president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve bank, Raphael Bostic, anticipates an interest rate peak in the range of 5% to 5.25 percent and the continuation of higher interest rates through CY2023.