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April 22 – According to a Reuters poll of economists, the Federal Reserve will likely wait at least six months before lowering interest rates this year, as the energy shock triggered by war has further exacerbated already high inflation. In the April 17-21 survey, 56 of the 103 economists surveyed predicted that the Feds benchmark interest rate would remain in the 3.50% to 3.75% range until the end of September. In a survey conducted in late March, nearly 70% of economists expected at least one rate cut by then. In an early March survey, most economists expected a rate cut by the end of June. In the latest survey, 71 economists still expect at least one rate cut this year, with the median forecast indicating only one cut, consistent with the Feds dot plot projections released last month. Currently, nearly one-third of economists expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year, almost double the percentage in previous surveys.European Central Bank Chief Economist Lane: Until we know more about how long this war will last, it is difficult to judge whether this is just a temporary phase or a larger shock.A Reuters poll showed that 71 out of 103 economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at least once this year.A Reuters poll of 103 economists found that 56 believe the Federal Reserve will keep the federal funds rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range until September (in a late March poll, 56 out of 82 economists predicted at least one rate cut in September).Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman: The maritime blockade of Iranian ports continues, which is an aggressive measure.

Gold Price Prediction: The XAU/USD pair will fall below $1870 as yields rise ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech

Alina Haynes

Jan 10, 2023 14:55

截屏2023-01-09 下午5.31.06_1024x576.png

 

In the Tokyo session, the gold price (XAU/USD) has fallen below the immediate resistance of $1,870.00. The precious metal has broken through the consolidation formed in the band of $1,870.00-1,881.50 as demand for US government bonds deteriorates ahead of the speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday.

 

The 10-year US Treasury yields have risen beyond 3.54 percent, dampening risk appetite. Meanwhile, S&P500 futures have become volatile following a sell-off late in Monday's session, signaling caution in establishing positions in risky assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is anticipated to attempt a break above the immediate resistance of 103.00 into the auction area.

 

Investors anticipate Fed Powell's speech for fresh cues, as it will provide a head start for the entirety of CY2023. Despite a sharp reduction in December wage inflation, some Fed policymakers continue to endorse a terminal rate prediction of 5.00-5.25%.

 

Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed Bank, argued that interest rates between 5% and 5.25 percent are fair. Also, the president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve bank, Raphael Bostic, anticipates an interest rate peak in the range of 5% to 5.25 percent and the continuation of higher interest rates through CY2023.

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