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Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Green: Upside risks to inflation are the most important.April 14th - The Middle East war has driven up oil prices and demand for Russian oil, and Russias oil tax profits are expected to increase further. Data from Argus, an independent international energy and commodity price assessment agency, shows that in the first 13 days of April, the average price of Urals crude oil, Russias main export, at western ports reached $106.3 per barrel, a 42% increase compared to March. Russian oil taxes are calculated with a one-month lag in Urals crude prices, so the impact of the March price increase will be reflected starting this month. In local currency terms, the average Urals price in March had already soared to 6,191 rubles; if the average price and exchange rate remain at current levels in April, it will further rise to approximately 8,300 rubles this month, the highest since March 2022. Finam economist Berenkaya stated that for every $1 increase in the annual average Urals price, Russian oil and gas tax revenue increases by approximately 150 billion rubles (about $2 billion). In April alone, the industrys revenue may reach 900-950 billion rubles, higher than the 617 billion rubles in March.Federal Reserves Goolsby: Concerns about how long the war with Iran will last.Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Green: Businesses tell me they have no pricing power.European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: Finding a solution to the Iranian issue is in the interest of all parties.

Gold Price Prediction: The XAU/USD pair will fall below $1870 as yields rise ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech

Alina Haynes

Jan 10, 2023 14:55

截屏2023-01-09 下午5.31.06_1024x576.png

 

In the Tokyo session, the gold price (XAU/USD) has fallen below the immediate resistance of $1,870.00. The precious metal has broken through the consolidation formed in the band of $1,870.00-1,881.50 as demand for US government bonds deteriorates ahead of the speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday.

 

The 10-year US Treasury yields have risen beyond 3.54 percent, dampening risk appetite. Meanwhile, S&P500 futures have become volatile following a sell-off late in Monday's session, signaling caution in establishing positions in risky assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is anticipated to attempt a break above the immediate resistance of 103.00 into the auction area.

 

Investors anticipate Fed Powell's speech for fresh cues, as it will provide a head start for the entirety of CY2023. Despite a sharp reduction in December wage inflation, some Fed policymakers continue to endorse a terminal rate prediction of 5.00-5.25%.

 

Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed Bank, argued that interest rates between 5% and 5.25 percent are fair. Also, the president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve bank, Raphael Bostic, anticipates an interest rate peak in the range of 5% to 5.25 percent and the continuation of higher interest rates through CY2023.

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