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On May 16th, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Stournaras stated that a small interest rate hike by the ECB could curb inflation without causing economic damage. Even if the inflation rate is significantly above the target level for a period of time, as long as it is temporary, future tightening of monetary policy should be more moderate. This would both curb further inflation and avoid excessive shock to economic activity. The duration and intensity of the energy crisis, and its transmission mechanism to the real economy, will also determine the ECBs response. The ECB will continue to closely assess all available data and is prepared to set policy rates at a level consistent with maintaining price stability in the medium term. This typically dovish official emphasized that there is currently no strong evidence of a second round of inflation, but he also warned of rising uncertainty, as damage to energy infrastructure in the Gulf region could prolong inflationary pressures in the medium term. Extended delivery times and rising input costs indicate that supply chains are facing increasing pressure.May 16th - Despite geopolitical tensions and a flood of synthetic diamonds, Zimbabwes main state-owned diamond miner plans to produce 5 million carats of diamonds this year, up from 3.8 million carats in 2025. Douglas Zambangor, CEO of United Diamonds Zimbabwe, told lawmakers in the eastern town of Mutare that the countrys diamond industry has experienced a more severe downturn than the international market due to a series of local problems. While international rough diamond prices have fallen by 26% to 35%, Zimbabwean diamonds have plummeted from a peak of $79 per carat to $22 per carat due to product mix issues, geopolitical tensions, synthetic diamonds, market collusion, and an unfavorable sales framework. The international diamond market remains sluggish, especially for unique rough diamonds, with prices projected to range between $22 and $34 per carat by 2026. In contrast, other producers are averaging $100 per carat for high-quality rough diamonds.May 16th - According to sources, FIFA Secretary General Matthias Grafström will meet with officials from the Iranian Football Federation in Istanbul, Turkey, on the 16th. FIFA will "assure" Iran that it will be able to participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. US Secretary of State Rubio previously stated that Iranian footballers will be welcomed at this World Cup, but also warned that the US may still ban Iranian team members with ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from entering the country.May 16 - According to sources cited by Irans state news agency, Pakistani Interior Minister Naqvi arrived in Tehran a few hours ago to meet with Iranian officials.May 16th - On May 16th local time, in the first round of the WorldSSP class of the 2026 World Superbike Championship (WSBK) Czech Republic, Valentin Debis, the No. 53 French rider from Chinese motorcycle manufacturer "Zhang Xue Motorcycle", won the championship.

Gold Price Prediction: The XAU/USD pair will fall below $1870 as yields rise ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech

Alina Haynes

Jan 10, 2023 14:55

截屏2023-01-09 下午5.31.06_1024x576.png

 

In the Tokyo session, the gold price (XAU/USD) has fallen below the immediate resistance of $1,870.00. The precious metal has broken through the consolidation formed in the band of $1,870.00-1,881.50 as demand for US government bonds deteriorates ahead of the speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday.

 

The 10-year US Treasury yields have risen beyond 3.54 percent, dampening risk appetite. Meanwhile, S&P500 futures have become volatile following a sell-off late in Monday's session, signaling caution in establishing positions in risky assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is anticipated to attempt a break above the immediate resistance of 103.00 into the auction area.

 

Investors anticipate Fed Powell's speech for fresh cues, as it will provide a head start for the entirety of CY2023. Despite a sharp reduction in December wage inflation, some Fed policymakers continue to endorse a terminal rate prediction of 5.00-5.25%.

 

Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed Bank, argued that interest rates between 5% and 5.25 percent are fair. Also, the president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve bank, Raphael Bostic, anticipates an interest rate peak in the range of 5% to 5.25 percent and the continuation of higher interest rates through CY2023.