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U.S. Special Envoy for Syria: Met with Jordanian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Diaspora Affairs Ayman Safadi. Minister Safadi and I discussed the latest developments in the Syrian Arab Republic in the context of our ongoing cooperation.On January 10th, in response to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnicks comments that the failure to reach a trade agreement with India was due to Indian Prime Minister Modi not calling US President Trump, India stated on the 9th that Lutnicks statement was "inaccurate." Earlier on the 9th, in an interview with the US podcast "The Roundup," Lutnick blamed the stalled US-India trade agreement negotiations on Indian Prime Minister Modi, saying, "Everything was ready, and I (to the Indian side) said you have to get Modi to call the president (Trump). They were uncomfortable doing that. So, Modi didnt call."January 10th - On January 9th, a provincial financial system work conference was held in Jinan, Shandong Province. The conference emphasized the need for effective and orderly risk prevention, steady progress in the reform of small and medium-sized financial institutions, prevention and crackdown on illegal financial activities, and coordinated resolution of various intertwined risks. It stressed the importance of consolidating and strengthening financial supervision, strictly controlling market access, rigorously enforcing regulations, and holding those responsible accountable. The conference also called for all-out efforts to promote high-quality development, expand and improve the financial sector, fully utilize the moderately loose monetary policy, implement the "Ten-Hundred-Thousand" plan for cultivating listed companies, and strengthen financial support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises.U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio: The United States supports the courageous Iranian people.On January 10th, a research report from Founder Securities stated that the December non-farm payroll data was mixed, with the US job market generally showing a mild downward trend, but the unemployment rate showed marginal improvement, giving the Federal Reserve more reason to wait and see in January. Combined with the Supreme Courts potential declaration that the IEEPA tariffs are unconstitutional, this may be a short-term positive for US stocks and the US dollar, but a negative for US Treasuries. Data on new jobs, job openings, and hourly wage growth indicate that the US job market remained relatively weak in December, but the marginal decline in the unemployment rate was one of the few bright spots. Looking at interest rate futures and US Treasuries, the market priced in a no-rate-cut by the Fed in January, with a possible rate cut as early as June. Meanwhile, the Supreme Courts potential declaration that the IEEPA tariffs are unconstitutional means that economic expectations may improve marginally, inflationary pressures may weaken, but the fiscal deficit may worsen. With the Fed in no hurry to cut rates and tariffs easing, US Treasuries face many unfavorable factors in the short term and are likely to remain at high levels. US stocks will benefit from the AI boom and reduced tariff disruptions, especially in sectors affected by tariffs such as consumer staples and industry, which are more resilient.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD anticipates additional gains ahead of China and U.S. inflation

Alina Haynes

Jan 11, 2023 11:54

Gold price (XAU/USD) demonstrates usual pre-data concern as it approaches $1,875 on Wednesday morning, exploring a three-day rally around the highest levels since May 2022. In doing so, gold demonstrates the market's faith in the traditional safe-haven, even if the US Dollar recovers from its multi-day low. The uncertainty surrounding the next steps of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the pessimistic economic forecasts of the World Bank (WB), not to mention cautious optimism towards China, may be to blame.

 

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at Riksbank's International Symposium on Central Bank Independence were unable to provide additional clarification on the US central bank's monetary policy outlook, which prompted a stampede for gold in the face of uncertainty. In his most recent public appearances, the policymaker lauded the US central bank's latest steps while emphasizing the Fed's independence and lack of commitment to climate control. Notably, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman seemed hawkish when she stated that additional rate hikes are required to combat excessive inflation, which should have pressured the XAU/USD bulls in the aftermath.

 

Notably, the recent softening of hawkish bets on the Fed's next moves, as well as lower US data, appear to keep gold investors optimistic, despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to defend its tight monetary policy. Tuesday, the US NFIB Business Optimism Index for December fell to its lowest level since 2013 if various anxieties caused by the worldwide Covid wave are disregarded. In addition, US Wholesale Inventories for November stayed constant at 1.0% growth.

 

Alternatively, a rebound in the US Dollar Index (DXY) from the seven-month low appears to pose a threat to the Gold price, due to the inverse link between the XAU/USD and the dollar's index against the six main currencies. Tuesday marked the conclusion of a two-day downturn for the DXY as it rebounded from the multiday low to settle at 103.30. In doing so, the US Dollar Index tracked the firmer US 10-year Treasury note yields, which increased 10 basis points (bps) to 3.61 percent, falling one basis point (bp) to 3.60 percent at the latest.

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