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February 4th - In a report, Kit Juckes of Societe Generale stated that the euro may weaken against the dollar in the second half of 2026, as its recent appreciation has exceeded what interest rate differentials could explain. Over the past year or so, the euros gains have consistently outpaced what the two-year interest rate differential suggests, and this trend is expected to continue into early 2026. This indicates that the market is cautious about confronting Trumps stance of wanting a weaker dollar. In this context, overseas investors may choose to hedge against the risk of a weaker dollar, but this is more likely to occur in the first half of this year.New York silver futures rose above $91 per ounce, up 9.24% on the day.The U.S. Treasury Department reiterated its plan to keep bond issuance levels stable for "at least the next few quarters".February 4th - A report released Wednesday by ADP, an American data processing company, showed that the U.S. labor market nearly stagnated in January, with job growth even falling short of already modest market expectations. Data showed that the private sector added only 22,000 jobs in January. If it werent for an unexpected increase of 74,000 jobs in the education and healthcare sectors, overall employment would have shown negative growth. This result is not only lower than the revised 37,000 new jobs added in December, but also significantly less than the 45,000 expected by the Dow Jones survey. This report suggests that the start of 2026 will largely continue the trend of 2025: a "low-hit, low-layoff" employment environment characterized by weak hiring and limited layoffs. This situation is unlikely to alleviate the concerns of Federal Reserve policymakers that the economy still needs more support.Senator Scott, Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee: (Regarding Warsh) He will 100% receive confirmation. Tillis (Republican Senator) is expected to ultimately vote to confirm the nomination. He does not believe Powell has committed a crime.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD anticipates additional gains ahead of China and U.S. inflation

Alina Haynes

Jan 11, 2023 11:54

Gold price (XAU/USD) demonstrates usual pre-data concern as it approaches $1,875 on Wednesday morning, exploring a three-day rally around the highest levels since May 2022. In doing so, gold demonstrates the market's faith in the traditional safe-haven, even if the US Dollar recovers from its multi-day low. The uncertainty surrounding the next steps of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the pessimistic economic forecasts of the World Bank (WB), not to mention cautious optimism towards China, may be to blame.

 

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at Riksbank's International Symposium on Central Bank Independence were unable to provide additional clarification on the US central bank's monetary policy outlook, which prompted a stampede for gold in the face of uncertainty. In his most recent public appearances, the policymaker lauded the US central bank's latest steps while emphasizing the Fed's independence and lack of commitment to climate control. Notably, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman seemed hawkish when she stated that additional rate hikes are required to combat excessive inflation, which should have pressured the XAU/USD bulls in the aftermath.

 

Notably, the recent softening of hawkish bets on the Fed's next moves, as well as lower US data, appear to keep gold investors optimistic, despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to defend its tight monetary policy. Tuesday, the US NFIB Business Optimism Index for December fell to its lowest level since 2013 if various anxieties caused by the worldwide Covid wave are disregarded. In addition, US Wholesale Inventories for November stayed constant at 1.0% growth.

 

Alternatively, a rebound in the US Dollar Index (DXY) from the seven-month low appears to pose a threat to the Gold price, due to the inverse link between the XAU/USD and the dollar's index against the six main currencies. Tuesday marked the conclusion of a two-day downturn for the DXY as it rebounded from the multiday low to settle at 103.30. In doing so, the US Dollar Index tracked the firmer US 10-year Treasury note yields, which increased 10 basis points (bps) to 3.61 percent, falling one basis point (bp) to 3.60 percent at the latest.

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