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February 27th - According to three sources familiar with intelligence reports, US President Trumps claim that Iran is about to possess missiles capable of striking the United States is not supported by US intelligence reports and appears exaggerated, casting doubt on some of his reasons for potentially attacking Iran. In his State of the Union address to Congress on Tuesday, Trump began explaining to the American public why the US might strike Iran, stating that Tehran is developing missiles that could "soon reach" the United States. However, two sources indicated that an unpublished 2025 assessment by the US Defense Intelligence Agency suggests that Iran may not be able to develop a "militarily viable intercontinental ballistic missile" (ICBM) using its existing Satellite Launch Vehicle (SLV) until 2035.February 27th - The British Labour Party indicated it was likely to lose to the left-wing Green Party in the by-elections for Gordon and Denton, a significant blow to Prime Minister Starmer. A senior Labour MP stated, "We believe the Greens have won." In this constituency, a Labour stronghold for nearly a century, Labour was embroiled in a fierce three-way race with two populist parties: the left-wing Green Party and the right-wing Reform Party. Voters cast their ballots on Thursday. Early Friday morning, before the vote count was complete, Labour Deputy Leader Lucy Powell stated that voters had consistently tried to block the Reform Party. She said, "It is very clear that the vast majority of voters in this constituency did not vote for the Reform Party, and the Green Party successfully proved itself to be the best option to block the Reform Party." She did not indicate whether Labour came in second or third place. However, according to another MP, Labour members believe that after an election where the Green Party attempted to portray itself as "the one that stops the Reform Party," Labour faces a major defeat against the Greens.U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Norm said on Thursday that the Department of Homeland Security shutdown is affecting security and preparations for the 2026 World Cup and the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States.The bid-to-cover ratio for the Japanese 2-year government bond auction was 3.32, compared to 3.88 in the previous auction.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: We are paying close attention to foreign exchange trends with a high sense of urgency.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD anticipates additional gains ahead of China and U.S. inflation

Alina Haynes

Jan 11, 2023 11:54

Gold price (XAU/USD) demonstrates usual pre-data concern as it approaches $1,875 on Wednesday morning, exploring a three-day rally around the highest levels since May 2022. In doing so, gold demonstrates the market's faith in the traditional safe-haven, even if the US Dollar recovers from its multi-day low. The uncertainty surrounding the next steps of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the pessimistic economic forecasts of the World Bank (WB), not to mention cautious optimism towards China, may be to blame.

 

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at Riksbank's International Symposium on Central Bank Independence were unable to provide additional clarification on the US central bank's monetary policy outlook, which prompted a stampede for gold in the face of uncertainty. In his most recent public appearances, the policymaker lauded the US central bank's latest steps while emphasizing the Fed's independence and lack of commitment to climate control. Notably, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman seemed hawkish when she stated that additional rate hikes are required to combat excessive inflation, which should have pressured the XAU/USD bulls in the aftermath.

 

Notably, the recent softening of hawkish bets on the Fed's next moves, as well as lower US data, appear to keep gold investors optimistic, despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to defend its tight monetary policy. Tuesday, the US NFIB Business Optimism Index for December fell to its lowest level since 2013 if various anxieties caused by the worldwide Covid wave are disregarded. In addition, US Wholesale Inventories for November stayed constant at 1.0% growth.

 

Alternatively, a rebound in the US Dollar Index (DXY) from the seven-month low appears to pose a threat to the Gold price, due to the inverse link between the XAU/USD and the dollar's index against the six main currencies. Tuesday marked the conclusion of a two-day downturn for the DXY as it rebounded from the multiday low to settle at 103.30. In doing so, the US Dollar Index tracked the firmer US 10-year Treasury note yields, which increased 10 basis points (bps) to 3.61 percent, falling one basis point (bp) to 3.60 percent at the latest.

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