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February 19th - According to a Reuters survey, most economists predict the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may raise its key interest rate to 1% by the end of June. Some economists expect the central bank to act as early as April due to heightened concerns about rising inflation and a weak yen. In the survey conducted from February 10th to 18th, all 76 economists said the BOJ would keep interest rates unchanged at its March meeting. However, 58% of them expect the policy rate to reach 1% by the end of June, an increase from slightly over one-third in January. Of the 44 economists who specifically indicated the month of the next rate hike, 36% chose June, 20% chose April, and 34% chose July. Kento Minami, senior economist at Daiwa Securities, said the BOJ will continue to push for further rate hikes at a relatively rapid pace, taking into account the upside risks to inflation from expansionary fiscal policy and the impact of yen depreciation. Meanwhile, to curb further yen depreciation, two-thirds of the 29 respondents said they expect the authorities to intervene in the foreign exchange market again. Of these, 40% believed that the 160 mark was the most likely point to trigger intervention.On February 19th, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, in a media interview, teased the upcoming GTC 2026 conference, explicitly stating that a brand-new chip "unprecedented in the world" would be unveiled at the event. Currently, the specific model of the new product has not been disclosed, but it is widely speculated that it will likely come from two major chip series: one is a derivative of the Rubin series; the other is the next-generation Feynman series chip, which is described as a "revolutionary" product.New York silver futures rose above $78 per ounce, up 0.52% on the day.According to a Reuters poll, 58% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise its key interest rate to 1% by the end of June, compared to 36% in the January survey.According to a Reuters poll, all 76 economists expect the Bank of Japan to keep its key interest rate unchanged until March.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD anticipates additional gains ahead of China and U.S. inflation

Alina Haynes

Jan 11, 2023 11:54

Gold price (XAU/USD) demonstrates usual pre-data concern as it approaches $1,875 on Wednesday morning, exploring a three-day rally around the highest levels since May 2022. In doing so, gold demonstrates the market's faith in the traditional safe-haven, even if the US Dollar recovers from its multi-day low. The uncertainty surrounding the next steps of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the pessimistic economic forecasts of the World Bank (WB), not to mention cautious optimism towards China, may be to blame.

 

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at Riksbank's International Symposium on Central Bank Independence were unable to provide additional clarification on the US central bank's monetary policy outlook, which prompted a stampede for gold in the face of uncertainty. In his most recent public appearances, the policymaker lauded the US central bank's latest steps while emphasizing the Fed's independence and lack of commitment to climate control. Notably, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman seemed hawkish when she stated that additional rate hikes are required to combat excessive inflation, which should have pressured the XAU/USD bulls in the aftermath.

 

Notably, the recent softening of hawkish bets on the Fed's next moves, as well as lower US data, appear to keep gold investors optimistic, despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to defend its tight monetary policy. Tuesday, the US NFIB Business Optimism Index for December fell to its lowest level since 2013 if various anxieties caused by the worldwide Covid wave are disregarded. In addition, US Wholesale Inventories for November stayed constant at 1.0% growth.

 

Alternatively, a rebound in the US Dollar Index (DXY) from the seven-month low appears to pose a threat to the Gold price, due to the inverse link between the XAU/USD and the dollar's index against the six main currencies. Tuesday marked the conclusion of a two-day downturn for the DXY as it rebounded from the multiday low to settle at 103.30. In doing so, the US Dollar Index tracked the firmer US 10-year Treasury note yields, which increased 10 basis points (bps) to 3.61 percent, falling one basis point (bp) to 3.60 percent at the latest.

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