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On January 19th, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Kang Yi, Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated that in December 2025, the year-on-year growth rates of the added value of the service sector above designated size and the service sector production index both accelerated compared to the previous month; the core CPI increase also remained above 1% for four consecutive months, the year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed, and the month-on-month increase rebounded for three consecutive months; the manufacturing PMI and the non-manufacturing business activity index both returned to expansion territory. From a policy perspective, the State Council has deployed a package of coordinated fiscal and financial policies. Policies to expand domestic demand and "new infrastructure" are also being continuously optimized, all of which have created favorable conditions for the start of this years economic recovery. Looking at the whole of 2026, the supporting conditions and basic trends for my countrys long-term economic growth remain unchanged, the general trend of high-quality development remains unchanged, and there is a foundation and conditions to maintain stable and positive economic operation.On January 19th, 2026, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) held its 2025 Standards and Regulations Annual Meeting in Beijing. In his concluding remarks, Ye Shengji, Chief Engineer of CAAM, emphasized that CAAMs group standards should focus on industrial transformation and upgrading, and the construction of an innovation system in emerging key areas such as new energy and intelligent connected vehicles, particularly focusing on improving the quality and reliability of new energy vehicles. To this end, CAAM will coordinate and deploy the development of group standards for key areas of quality and reliability, aiming to develop a batch of highly original, innovative, and advanced high-level group standards for complete vehicles, component systems, and key components within 1-2 years.Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: On Monday morning (January 19), precious metals strengthened, with spot gold breaking through $4,680/ounce, continuing to reach new highs. Last week, gold fluctuated upwards, with London spot gold rising 1.92% weekly. Over the weekend, the US announced a 10% tariff on European countries that sided with Denmark on the Greenland issue. Affected by geopolitical changes, gold prices fluctuated with a slight upward bias in the short term. 1. The US may pause interest rate cuts in January, and the most anticipated Fed Chair candidate has changed. Regarding economic data, the US December CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, in line with expectations and the previous value; core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, in line with the previous value, slightly lower than the expected 2.7%. The slower-than-expected core inflation level in the US has created momentum for subsequent Fed rate cuts, but the probability of maintaining the current rate remains high based on the probability of a January rate cut. Significant disagreements continue within the Fed regarding the subsequent rate cut path. The Kansas City Fed President stated that there is currently no reason to cut rates, as doing so could harm progress in curbing inflation and would also be detrimental to the labor market. 1. In terms of news, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is under criminal investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice. Central banks around the world issued a joint statement in support of Powell, responding to the Trump administrations use of legal means to pressure central banks and threaten their independence. The U.S. President stated his desire for Hassett to continue serving as a White House advisor, and Rick Riddells candidacy for Federal Reserve Chairman is gaining momentum. 2. In terms of geopolitics, despite NATO countries deploying military personnel to Greenland, the U.S. government stated that this does not hinder U.S. objectives regarding Greenland and announced tariffs on eight European countries starting February 1st, up to the "complete acquisition of Greenland." Tensions in Iran are escalating, with the White House stating that the Trump administration is closely monitoring the situation and retains all options. Trump has spoken with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. 3. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve potentially pausing interest rate cuts in January, geopolitics has become a short-term focus. The U.S.-Venezuela conflict, the situation in Greenland, and the situation in Iran have once again caused global investors to feel uneasy about frequent geopolitical conflicts. Especially before the situation in Iran becomes clearer, the short-term enthusiasm for gold is unlikely to subside.According to NHK, Tokyo Electric Power Company will postpone the restart of the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant.According to the National Bureau of Statistics, steel production in December 2025 was 115.31 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.5%; production from January to December was 1,446.12 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD anticipates additional gains ahead of China and U.S. inflation

Alina Haynes

Jan 11, 2023 11:54

Gold price (XAU/USD) demonstrates usual pre-data concern as it approaches $1,875 on Wednesday morning, exploring a three-day rally around the highest levels since May 2022. In doing so, gold demonstrates the market's faith in the traditional safe-haven, even if the US Dollar recovers from its multi-day low. The uncertainty surrounding the next steps of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the pessimistic economic forecasts of the World Bank (WB), not to mention cautious optimism towards China, may be to blame.

 

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at Riksbank's International Symposium on Central Bank Independence were unable to provide additional clarification on the US central bank's monetary policy outlook, which prompted a stampede for gold in the face of uncertainty. In his most recent public appearances, the policymaker lauded the US central bank's latest steps while emphasizing the Fed's independence and lack of commitment to climate control. Notably, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman seemed hawkish when she stated that additional rate hikes are required to combat excessive inflation, which should have pressured the XAU/USD bulls in the aftermath.

 

Notably, the recent softening of hawkish bets on the Fed's next moves, as well as lower US data, appear to keep gold investors optimistic, despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to defend its tight monetary policy. Tuesday, the US NFIB Business Optimism Index for December fell to its lowest level since 2013 if various anxieties caused by the worldwide Covid wave are disregarded. In addition, US Wholesale Inventories for November stayed constant at 1.0% growth.

 

Alternatively, a rebound in the US Dollar Index (DXY) from the seven-month low appears to pose a threat to the Gold price, due to the inverse link between the XAU/USD and the dollar's index against the six main currencies. Tuesday marked the conclusion of a two-day downturn for the DXY as it rebounded from the multiday low to settle at 103.30. In doing so, the US Dollar Index tracked the firmer US 10-year Treasury note yields, which increased 10 basis points (bps) to 3.61 percent, falling one basis point (bp) to 3.60 percent at the latest.

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