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On June 16th, Tohru Sasaki, chief strategist at Fukuoka Financial Group and a former Bank of Japan official, stated that a minor surprise was the scale of Japanese government bond purchases. The market had expected the purchase scale to remain largely unchanged after April next year, but it was actually slightly reduced and will remain unchanged thereafter. Therefore, this differs slightly from market consensus. However, the focus is on how Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will articulate future monetary policy. Uchida needs to proceed cautiously at this press conference. It will be very difficult for him to express any major shifts in future policy. Therefore, I believe the market may interpret Uchidas press conference as a dovish signal. The Ministry of Finance may intervene on the day of the Bank of Japans interest rate hike due to the continued weakness of the yen. Looking ahead, I believe the health of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is crucial. If he needs to be replaced for health reasons, his successor will likely be a dovish governor.June 16 – The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its key interest rate unchanged for the first time this year, given that the previous three rate hikes had begun to put pressure on the Australian economy. On Tuesday, all nine members of the committee unanimously voted to keep the cash rate at 4.35%, in line with expectations. RBA Governor Bullock will hold a press conference later, and investors will be watching to see if policymakers will enter a prolonged pause or continue their tightening stance. In its statement, the RBA said, “The cash rate target has been raised three times since the beginning of the year, and current financial conditions are tighter than before, with signs of an economic slowdown emerging as expected.” This pause in rate hikes marks a softening of the RBA’s aggressive tightening policy, which had previously made it stand out among major central banks. While policymakers continue to warn that inflation remains too high and that high energy costs related to the war with Iran pose upside risks, recent weaker data has provided the central bank with room to hold its position and assess the situation.June 16 – On the morning of June 16, President Xi Jinping held talks with Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing, who was on a state visit to China, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Xi Jinping pointed out that President Min Aung Hlaing has long been a friend of China. Last year, we met twice and exchanged in-depth views on strategic and directional issues concerning China-Myanmar relations. I am willing to continue to strengthen guidance with you, carry forward the fraternal friendship, deepen comprehensive strategic cooperation, promote the building of a China-Myanmar community with a shared future to achieve more results, bring more benefits to the people of both countries, and make greater contributions to regional peace and development.Reserve Bank of Australia: Signs of economic slowdown are emerging as expected after the 2026 rate hike.Reserve Bank of Australia: The impact of high oil prices on goods and services is becoming apparent.

Gold Price Forecast: The XAU/USD pair struggles to continue its climb above $1,870, although the upside remains likely

Alina Haynes

Jan 09, 2023 12:00

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During the Asian session, the gold price (XAU/USD) is hovering in a narrow range around the immediate barrier of $1,870. The precious metal hopes to extend its uptrend in light of market players' increased risk appetite.

 

S&P500 futures have contributed to their gains during Friday's surge, indicating an optimistic market sentiment. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has detected resistance at 103.50 and is likely to find support near 103.00. The yields on 10-year US Treasuries have decreased to approximately 3.56 percent due to a loss in safe-haven attraction.

 

Amidst mounting prospects of a U.S. recession, the gold price is garnering considerable attention. Following a string of declines in the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, the Services PMI has also declined, indicating a decline in overall demand in the United States economy. The Services PMI dropped sharply to 49.6 compared to the predicted 55.0. In addition, the New Orders Index, a measure of future demand, plummeted to 45.2% as opposed to the anticipated 58.5%. The U.S. dollar is affected by a slowdown in economic activity and its expectations for the future.