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A Reuters poll found that 58% of economists surveyed believed the addition of two dovish scholars to the Bank of Japan would not make raising interest rates more difficult.A Reuters poll shows the median forecast indicates the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates to 1.25% in the first quarter of 2027 and to 1.50% in the first quarter of 2028.A Reuters poll of 64 economists indicated that the Bank of Japan will keep its benchmark interest rate at 0.75% on March 19.A Reuters poll found that 60% of economists surveyed expect the Bank of Japan to raise its benchmark interest rate to 1.00% by the end of June (up from 58% in the February poll).March 11th - Amidst the uncertainty stemming from the ongoing conflict with Iran, market expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan have weakened. Against this backdrop, demand for Japanese five-year government bonds was stronger than the 12-month average. The bid-to-cover ratio for this auction was 3.69, higher than the previous auctions 3.10 and the 12-month average of 3.44. Following the auction, Japanese bond futures narrowed their losses. Soaring oil prices coupled with a depreciating yen have increased the risk of Japan sliding into stagflation, prompting the government to increase fiscal spending and complicating the central banks tightening measures. The five-year yield, sensitive to monetary policy expectations, is currently trading around 1.64%. Strong demand at last weeks 30-year government bond auction indicates that investor demand remains robust despite the war factor. Next weeks 20-year government bond issuance will also be closely watched as investors assess how Middle East tensions might affect Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis fiscal agenda.

Gold Price Forecast: The XAU/USD pair struggles to continue its climb above $1,870, although the upside remains likely

Alina Haynes

Jan 09, 2023 12:00

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During the Asian session, the gold price (XAU/USD) is hovering in a narrow range around the immediate barrier of $1,870. The precious metal hopes to extend its uptrend in light of market players' increased risk appetite.

 

S&P500 futures have contributed to their gains during Friday's surge, indicating an optimistic market sentiment. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has detected resistance at 103.50 and is likely to find support near 103.00. The yields on 10-year US Treasuries have decreased to approximately 3.56 percent due to a loss in safe-haven attraction.

 

Amidst mounting prospects of a U.S. recession, the gold price is garnering considerable attention. Following a string of declines in the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, the Services PMI has also declined, indicating a decline in overall demand in the United States economy. The Services PMI dropped sharply to 49.6 compared to the predicted 55.0. In addition, the New Orders Index, a measure of future demand, plummeted to 45.2% as opposed to the anticipated 58.5%. The U.S. dollar is affected by a slowdown in economic activity and its expectations for the future.


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