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1. According to SMM, the JFR union in Moquegua, Peru, has begun a strike, which is expected to cause delays in shipments from mines owned by Quellaveco and Grupo Mexico. Furthermore, the strike could spread to the port of Matarani in Arequipa, which, if it does, will further impact the shipping schedules of other major mines such as Las Bambas, Cerro Verde, and Constancia. Whether the strike has extended to Arequipa is currently unconfirmed. 2. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh said on Wednesday that inflation expectations and inflation risks have both declined in recent weeks; he also reiterated the Feds commitment to reducing inflation to its 2% target. "In the initial weeks of this period, inflation expectations have fallen, and inflation risks have decreased accordingly," Warsh said. 3. Data shows that Venezuelan oil exports through trading companies fell to approximately 775,000 barrels per day. Venezuelan oil exports to the United States increased to 630,000 barrels per day in June, while exports to India fell to 277,000 barrels per day in June. 4. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh reiterated that he will not provide "forward guidance" on upcoming interest rate policy, marking a significant shift for the Fed. "Were going to forge a new path," Warsh said. "I hope that when we meet again in four weeks, well have a full internal debate." 5. U.S. ADP employment rose by 98,000 in June, the lowest increase since March, below market expectations of 118,000. 6. Three sources said Wednesday that OPEC+ oil-producing countries will agree to further increase their August production target at their meeting on Sunday, a move that would increase oil supply as the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens and oil prices fall. The sources said the August production target would increase by approximately 188,000 barrels per day, the same increase as in June and July. 7. The EIA report showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding strategic reserves, fell by 3.775 million barrels to 408 million barrels in the week ending June 26, a decrease of 0.92%, the lowest level since the week ending September 28, 2018. U.S. crude oil inventories fell for the 10th consecutive week. Crude oil inventories on the U.S. West Coast fell to a record low.Market news: The EU has postponed the meeting of the Carbon Market Reform Committee to July 17.SC crude oil futures contract 2608 hit a new intraday low, with the decline widening to 3%, and was last quoted at 446.5 yuan/barrel; the trading volume was approximately 7.444 billion yuan, with nearly 1,000 lots added to open interest during the day, indicating increased market volatility.The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that refinery utilization rates on the U.S. East Coast fell to their lowest level since April 2025 in the latest week.July 1st - U.S. manufacturing activity expanded for the sixth consecutive month in June as the surge in input costs driven by war eased. According to data released Wednesday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index fell 0.7 points to 53.3, still near a four-year high. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, and the latest data shows the sector is experiencing its longest expansion since 2022. The pace of increase in raw material purchase prices slowed significantly in June. The ISMs price sub-index fell 9.1 points to 73, the largest monthly drop since July 2022; this followed a sharp decline in oil prices after a provisional agreement between the U.S. and Iran.

WTI advances toward $75.00 as China-related demand optimism offsets recession fears

Daniel Rogers

Jan 09, 2023 11:55

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In the early hours of Monday, WTI steadily climbs near the intraday high of $74.70 as bullish emotion competes with economic slowdown worries. Despite this, the weaker US Dollar and a light schedule allow buyers of black gold to maintain control following Friday's mixed performance.

 

In spite of this, the risk profile remains elevated in light of China's reopening of its borders after a three-year closure. On the same line, Guo Shuqing, party secretary of the People's Bank of China, made his remarks (PBOC).

 

Reuters, transmitting China unlock news, claimed that "about 2 billion journeys are anticipated this season, roughly doubling the volume of previous year, and recovering to 70% of 2019 levels," citing a statement from the Chinese government.

 

On the other side, PBOC's Shuqing stated, "The world's second-largest economy is likely to recover rapidly due to the country's optimal Covid-19 response and the continued implementation of its economic policies."

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell the most in three weeks the day before, down 0.20% intraday to 103.70 as of press time, as the US employment report failed to excite greenback purchasers and the US activity numbers stoked fears of an economic slowdown. It's worth mentioning that the previous day's disappointing US wage growth, ISM Services PMI, and Factory Orders weighed on Treasury bond yields and the DXY.

 

On a different page, reports regarding a delay in the restoration of the colonial pipeline and the Russia-Ukraine conflict appear to also benefit energy buyers. Traders fear additional rate hikes ahead of the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December from China and the United States on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, which tests the positive momentum.