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On August 31st, the last trading day of August 2026, the Shanghai rubber futures main contract fluctuated slightly throughout the day. It opened at 18,900 yuan/ton and dipped to a low of 18,705 yuan/ton, currently maintaining a narrow range around 18,900 yuan/ton. Trading volume and open interest remained active, indicating continued market tug-of-war between bulls and bears. 1. On the supply side, Southeast Asia has entered its traditional peak production season, but continuous rainfall in parts of Thailand and Vietnam has disrupted tapping efficiency. Thai cup rubber prices remained high at 67.3 baht/kg, providing rigid support for the market. Domestically, Yunnan and Hainan production areas were also affected by intermittent rain, resulting in a lower-than-expected supply of new rubber. Thailands natural rubber exports to China in the first seven months declined by 25% year-on-year, with limited external inflows. 2. Regarding inventory, as of August 23rd, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 631,500 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons (1.65%) compared to the previous period. Both bonded and general trade inventories decreased, slightly easing pressure on the spot market. 3. Demand is clearly differentiated. As of August 27, 2026, the operating rate of all-steel radial tire manufacturers in Shandong this week was 62.33%, up 0.91% from last week but down 0.45% from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi-steel radial tire manufacturers in China was 65.38%, down 0.28% from last week and down 9.19% from the same period last year. Downstream tire manufacturers remain cautious in the face of high raw material prices, mainly purchasing based on immediate needs, with weak willingness to actively replenish inventory. The realization of the "Golden September" peak season still needs to be closely monitored for changes in terminal orders. 4. In terms of news, the expectation of El Niño climate-induced production reduction continues to be traded, and the overseas STR20# USD price remains firm, with the domestic and international markets moving in tandem to support rubber prices. Overall, the short-term supply and demand are in a tug-of-war pattern, and rubber prices are expected to remain range-bound. US crude oil fell 0.16%; gold prices fell nearly 3%. It is recommended to operate with a range-bound strategy, focusing on changes in weather in production areas and the improvement of downstream operating rates in September, and being wary of short-term risks brought about by macroeconomic and international market fluctuations.On August 31, Barclays stated that, given Federal Reserve Chairman Warshs recent comments suggesting a more hawkish policy stance, the bank expects the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in both September and December. Previously, the bank had anticipated the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged for the remainder of the year.OpenClaw has announced that OpenClaw 2.0 is now live.On August 31, the public relations department of Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on social media that a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone was shot down by an Iranian missile over the Strait of Hormuz and "crashed into the blue waters of the Persian Gulf." Depending on the sensors and weapons it carries, an MQ-9 Reaper drone costs between $30 million and $50 million.August 31st - This morning, the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) held a press conference. At the conference, the CCPIT released data on certificates of origin and commercial certificates issued nationwide in July. In July 2026, the CCPIT system nationwide issued a total of 736,400 certificates of origin, ATA Carnets, and commercial certificates. Among them, the value of non-preferential certificates of origin issued nationwide reached US$32.332 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.38%; the value of preferential certificates of origin issued reached US$10.924 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.77%; and the value of RCEP certificates of origin issued reached US$873 million, a year-on-year increase of 16.81%.

WTI advances toward $75.00 as China-related demand optimism offsets recession fears

Daniel Rogers

Jan 09, 2023 11:55

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In the early hours of Monday, WTI steadily climbs near the intraday high of $74.70 as bullish emotion competes with economic slowdown worries. Despite this, the weaker US Dollar and a light schedule allow buyers of black gold to maintain control following Friday's mixed performance.

 

In spite of this, the risk profile remains elevated in light of China's reopening of its borders after a three-year closure. On the same line, Guo Shuqing, party secretary of the People's Bank of China, made his remarks (PBOC).

 

Reuters, transmitting China unlock news, claimed that "about 2 billion journeys are anticipated this season, roughly doubling the volume of previous year, and recovering to 70% of 2019 levels," citing a statement from the Chinese government.

 

On the other side, PBOC's Shuqing stated, "The world's second-largest economy is likely to recover rapidly due to the country's optimal Covid-19 response and the continued implementation of its economic policies."

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell the most in three weeks the day before, down 0.20% intraday to 103.70 as of press time, as the US employment report failed to excite greenback purchasers and the US activity numbers stoked fears of an economic slowdown. It's worth mentioning that the previous day's disappointing US wage growth, ISM Services PMI, and Factory Orders weighed on Treasury bond yields and the DXY.

 

On a different page, reports regarding a delay in the restoration of the colonial pipeline and the Russia-Ukraine conflict appear to also benefit energy buyers. Traders fear additional rate hikes ahead of the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December from China and the United States on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, which tests the positive momentum.