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On August 12th, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) appeared poised to further cut its official interest rate next week, with economists largely focused on the central banks future forecasts. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner stated that a 25 basis point cut to 3.00% appeared certain. As weak high-frequency data increasingly emerged in hard economic data, the RBNZ could shift to a more dovish stance, ultimately lowering the official rate to 2.5%. However, she added that a sudden shift in that direction next week might be premature.The Hang Seng Tech Indexs decline widened to 1%, and the Hang Seng Index is now down 0.37%.On August 12, the Suzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued the "Notice on Further Expanding the Scope of Housing Provident Fund Use." This notice states that if a household applying for a housing provident fund loan (excluding commercial-to-public loans) to purchase their first or second self-occupied home has sold the home, the number of loans can be reduced accordingly. For households using housing provident fund loans to purchase their first or second self-occupied home, the down payment ratio will be adjusted to no less than 15% of the total purchase price. A household providing housing provident fund loans must pay for property management fees for self-occupied homes within the citys administrative area and can apply for a housing provident fund withdrawal from any household property. No housing provident fund withdrawals must have been made in the twelve months prior to the application. Withdrawals can be made once a year, with the total withdrawal amount not exceeding the actual annual property fees paid. Individual housing provident fund accounts must maintain at least one months worth of contributions based on the latest contribution base (excluding new employee subsidies).According to the Wall Street Journal: An explosion at a U.S. Steel (XN) plant killed two people and injured ten.Futures News, August 12th: Crude oil prices have recently stabilized and fluctuated after declining from high levels. The market awaits the US-Russia negotiations, with investors cautiously viewing the talks. There are divergent views on the negotiations, with bulls and bears remaining divided, and the market is generally on the sidelines. As the date of the talks approaches, more and more details are being released. Russia and Ukraine are likely to use territory as a bargaining chip, but this increases the difficulty of the negotiations. Therefore, against this backdrop, crude oil prices are showing resistance to declines, with clear support below, and a volatile market in the short term.

USD/CAD encounters resistance near 1.3580 as focus shifts to FOMC minutes

Daniel Rogers

Jan 03, 2023 15:20

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After failing to surpass the immediate resistance level of 1.3580, the USD/CAD pair is exhibiting some volatility in the Tokyo morning session. The Canadian dollar is attracting bids due to a boost in investor risk appetite and a rise in oil prices.

 

As investors believe that the US Dollar Index will continue to underperform, risk-sensitive currencies are gaining traction. After giving up the crucial support level of 103.50, the USD Index saw a significant fall on Friday. In the interim, S&P500 futures have began trading on a positive note, signaling a reduction in risk.

 

This week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) report will be the focal point of attention. The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee will explain why the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) in December's monetary policy meeting (Fed).

 

As they preview this week's US events, TD Securities analysts believe that the FOMC's December policy meeting minutes will shed fresh light on the Fed's policy outlook for 2023. According to analysts at TD Securities, by the time of the FOMC meeting in May, the terminal rate will be between 5.25 and 5.50 percent.

 

Investors will eagerly scrutinize the Canadian employment data that will be released on Friday. Analysts at TD Securities expect an 8,000 gain in employment in December as the labor market begins to deteriorate. The unemployment rate may decline to 5.2%, and the annual wage range may rise to 5.5%. A rise in pay growth may keep inflation at elevated levels.

 

In the interim, the price of oil has risen to over $80.50 per barrel as investors anticipate a drop in Covid-19 cases in China, which will restore economic development. Notably, Canada is the United States' leading oil exporter, and higher oil prices strengthen the Canadian Dollar.