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August 13th - US July PPI data came in below expectations, driven by further declines in energy and food costs. The PPI report follows closely after the consumer price data – which showed inflation was slowing, further confirming signs that the energy shock from the early stages of the war was fading. However, recent escalation in the Middle East has raised concerns about persistent inflation. Federal Reserve officials will receive additional consumer and producer price data, as well as another labor market report, before their next policy decision in mid-September. Policymakers now need to weigh persistent inflationary pressures against the recent slowdown in hiring. Several sub-items in the PPI are of particular interest to the Fed because they are included in its preferred inflation gauge – the personal consumption expenditures price index. These sub-items released mixed signals. Portfolio management fees saw their biggest increase in over a year, and hospital outpatient care costs also rose sharply, while physician services and hospital inpatient care prices remained moderate.Federal Reserves Hamack: We also need to pay attention to private lending and whether there is a bubble in artificial intelligence.Federal Reserves Hammarck: Treasury bonds are an area I focus on for financial stability.Federal Reserves Hamak: A large amount of leverage was used to buy Treasury bonds.August 13th - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose last week after hovering near record lows. Data released by the U.S. Labor Department on Thursday showed that initial jobless claims increased by 9,000 to 209,000 in the week ending August 8th. The median forecast from economists was 202,000. The increase in claims likely reflects the typical volatility of the summer season – seasonal employment patterns and holiday timings tend to influence data during this period. Economists will await data from more weeks before reassessing recent labor market stability.

GBP/USD Price Analysis: Targets a Breakout above 1.2100 from the Descending Triangle

Daniel Rogers

Dec 30, 2022 12:01

 GBP:USD.png

 

In the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is doing poorly due to investors' reluctance to acquire substantial positions due to the holiday market sentiment. The Cable is fluctuating within a 10-pip band below 1.2060 and will likely continue to do so in the foreseeable future.

 

Following a decline to approximately 103.50, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has attempted a recovery. As risk appetite improved on Thursday, the USD Index witnessed a big fall. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds slipped below 3.83 percent during early trading.

 

The Cable is building speed in anticipation of an hourly breakout from the chart pattern of a Descending Triangle. The major currency is hovering near the downward-sloping trendline drawn from the high of December 19 at 1.2242, while the horizontal support of the previously described chart pattern is placed at the low of December 22 at 1.1992.

 

The pair is trading above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) above 1.2050, indicating a strong near-term rise.

 

A consolidation is coming as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) oscillates between 40.00 and 60.00. A breakout of the bullish zone between 60.00 and 80.00 will trigger bullish momentum.

 

Should the Cable firmly surpass the high of 1.2112 on December 27, Pound Sterling bulls would drive the asset to the high of 1.2189 on December 21, followed by the high of 1.2242 on December 19.

 

In contrast, a significant slide below the low of December 22 at 1.1992 will cause the Descending Triangle to collapse and drag the Cable to the low of November 29 at 1.1940. A breach below this level would expose the pound to more weakness near the low reached on November 30 around 1.1900.