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On January 10th, a research report from Founder Securities stated that the December non-farm payroll data was mixed, with the US job market generally showing a mild downward trend, but the unemployment rate showed marginal improvement, giving the Federal Reserve more reason to wait and see in January. Combined with the Supreme Courts potential declaration that the IEEPA tariffs are unconstitutional, this may be a short-term positive for US stocks and the US dollar, but a negative for US Treasuries. Data on new jobs, job openings, and hourly wage growth indicate that the US job market remained relatively weak in December, but the marginal decline in the unemployment rate was one of the few bright spots. Looking at interest rate futures and US Treasuries, the market priced in a no-rate-cut by the Fed in January, with a possible rate cut as early as June. Meanwhile, the Supreme Courts potential declaration that the IEEPA tariffs are unconstitutional means that economic expectations may improve marginally, inflationary pressures may weaken, but the fiscal deficit may worsen. With the Fed in no hurry to cut rates and tariffs easing, US Treasuries face many unfavorable factors in the short term and are likely to remain at high levels. US stocks will benefit from the AI boom and reduced tariff disruptions, especially in sectors affected by tariffs such as consumer staples and industry, which are more resilient.January 10 - According to the UN Security Council schedule, the Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on the situation in Ukraine on January 12.On January 10th, Xiaomi Auto released a statement in response to netizens questions, stating that the new generation SU7 will be equipped with the Xiaomi Super Motor V6s Plus across the entire series. In addition to the motor being jointly supplied by United Electric and Inovance Technology, Xiaomi will also introduce its own self-developed and self-produced V6s Plus Super Motor in the future to further improve production efficiency and shorten delivery cycles.On January 10th, Chen Jianye, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Director of the Fujian Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, stated that the next step will be to accelerate the digital transformation of the manufacturing industry, enhance its green foundation, and promote the transformation of industries towards "new" and "green." This includes: Deepening the implementation of the "Nine Major Actions" for comprehensive digital empowerment of industrial manufacturing; adhering to the principle of enterprise-led development, strengthening government guidance, and leveraging the role of service providers to create more transformation benchmarks, promote chain-based transformation and overall transformation, and accelerate the large-scale application of digital technologies in the manufacturing industry; Deepening and expanding "Artificial Intelligence +"; making good use of the new round of incremental policies for artificial intelligence, supporting the cultivation of industry-specific models and intelligent agents, accelerating industry adaptation and scenario expansion, and promoting the empowerment of various industries by artificial intelligence; guiding the differentiated and characteristic development of the Fuzhou-Xiamen-Quanzhou provincial-level artificial intelligence industrial parks; and carrying out in-depth energy conservation and carbon reduction special actions; closely monitoring national carbon assessment requirements, and implementing energy conservation reviews and carbon emission assessments for "high energy consumption and high pollution" projects in the industrial sector; building Fujians green advantages in manufacturing, cultivating more national and provincial-level green parks and enterprises, and promoting the construction of a number of zero-carbon parks and factories.The Consumer Bankers Association: We look forward to working with the government to ensure that Americans have access to the credit they need.

As investors await fresh cues from the US ISM PMI, the USD/JPY pair fails to surpass 131.00

Alina Haynes

Jan 03, 2023 15:26

As the USD/JPY pair strives to surpass the critical level of 131.00 in the early Tokyo session, it is facing increasing resistance. The asset is trading near its 12-day low, therefore investors are likely to maintain a state of apprehension.

 

Due to the market's need for sufficient time to settle after the holiday fervor and long weekend, the risk profile is still uncertain. As the U.S. equity market awaits the International Monetary Fund's economic estimates, S&P500 futures perform modestly (IMF).

 

On a CBS Sunday morning news broadcast, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned, "2023 will be a difficult year for the majority of the global economy, as the three engines of global expansion — the United States, Europe, and China – may all experience declining activity."

 

In the future, the sentiment of the market will be reflected in the trading volume of the US Dollar Index (DXY). The ISM Manufacturing PMI data from the United States will be the most crucial element on the USD Index. Predictions indicate that the US ISM Manufacturing PMI will increase to 49.6 from 49.0 in the most recent report. In addition, investors will monitor the New Orders Index, which provides insight into future demand in the United States. The economic data is projected to increase to 48.1, up from 47.2 in the previous release.

 

A continuation of Tokyo's ultra-lax monetary policy could have an impact on the Japanese Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has already established inflation targets close to 2% for fiscal years 2023 and 2024, necessitating further increases in pay rates and a steady flow of market liquidity to underpin aggregate demand.

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