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Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: On September 7th, COMEX gold continued its sideways trading, closing at $4452.0 per ounce, down 0.55%. Domestic SHFE gold futures continued to hover around 960 points in the night session, closing at 954.1 yuan per gram, down 0.04%. 1. News: The US-Canada trade war escalated, with Canada planning to impose tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on hundreds of US goods on Tuesday. Trump threatened to ban the sale of Bombardier aircraft in the US. Geopolitically, Saudi Aramco oil facilities were attacked again, and traffic in the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level since May. Regarding central banks, Chinas gold reserves at the end of August were 76.73 million ounces (approximately 2386.57 tons), an increase of 650,000 ounces (approximately 20.22 tons) month-on-month. The Peoples Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for the 22nd consecutive month. 2. CME data shows that interest rate hike expectations are still rising. If the FOMC does raise rates in September, it will mark a reversal of the policy tone of the easing cycle that has been in place since 2024. However, given the influence of US Treasury bonds, a rate hike would essentially mean that market expectations have been met. Nevertheless, with interest rate hike expectations fluctuating, there is significant uncertainty surrounding the September Fed meeting, and price performance may also be volatile. The US August PPI and CPI data will be released successively from September 10th to 11th, which may provide strong guidance for the Feds interest rate decision, and the market may experience increased intraday volatility around these data releases.The British government has pledged £100 million to provide Ukraine with an air defense solution, including Patriot missiles.September 8th - Italian Prime Minister Meloni hopes to present a budget that will both attract voters and appease coalition partners before the election, and the Italian economy is providing a boost. Finance Minister Giorgetti now expects Italy to grow by up to 1% this year, up from a previous forecast of 0.6%, giving the government potential fiscal space at a crucial juncture in the political cycle. This more optimistic outlook could unlock billions of euros, allowing Meloni and his cabinet to fund promised tax cuts while adhering to EU rules. Veronica de Romanis, Professor of Political Economy at LUISS University in Rome, stated, "Given the economic growth so far this year, I think 0.8% to 0.9% growth is very possible. All the data helps to send the message to the public that things are moving forward."Japans economic watchers outlook index for August was 48.3, down from 45.8 in the previous month.Japans Economic Watchers Current Conditions Index for August was 46.4, down from 45.7 in the previous month.

The USD/JPY crosses the 135.00 mark as the DXY rises ahead of US inflation

Daniel Rogers

Aug 10, 2022 11:32

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The USD/JPY pair is climbing northward during the Asian session in an attempt to retake its two-week high at 135.58. The asset's price turned positive on Monday as a result of the abundance of bids that occurred near 134.50. The USD/JPY pair's two-day consolidated activity shows that market participants are anxiously awaiting the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).

 

Investors expect a decrease in price pressures this time, thus the release of the US inflation report is crucial. The investment community is aware that the crisis between Russia and Ukraine sharply increased oil prices, which continued to be essential to pressures on global costs.

 

A more than 11% drop in oil prices in July contributed to the black gold's continued sluggishness and lowered inflation expectations. The market anticipates that the inflation rate will decrease from 9.1% to 8.7%. The core CPI, which does not include food and oil, is anticipated to increase to 6.1% from the previously announced 5.9%. It appears that the demand for durable goods is rapidly increasing again. The US dollar index (DXY) is currently aiming to surpass the 106.40 immediate barrier.

 

The yen bulls are circling Tokyo as a result of Japan's government reorganization. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki will probably remain in the cabinet after this week's reorganization by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. All eyes will now be on the Japanese government's efforts to raise the labor cost index, which is essential for keeping inflation over 2%.