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Swiss customs data: Swiss seasonally adjusted watch exports rose 4.6% year-on-year in December, on a nominal basis, to CHF 2.15 billion.On January 29th, Mike Sanders, head of fixed income at Madison Investments, stated in a report that regardless of who is nominated, the next Federal Reserve chair will find it difficult to implement openly politically driven interest rate policies. He indicated that even appointing a more dovish candidate would be constrained by the cautious and conservative Federal Open Market Committee. "Attempting aggressive moves at the front of the yield curve is likely to lead to higher long-term yields, ultimately contradicting the original policy objectives," Sanders said.On January 29th, Scott Helfstein, Head of Investment Strategy at Global X, stated in a report that real interest rates may still be too high, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to cut rates again soon. "This leads us to believe that the Fed may remain more dovish than the market expects and cut rates again as early as the first quarter," he said. Helfstein believes the current market is likely driven by fundamentals, and the earnings season so far has met high expectations, with many companies reiterating their guidance.On January 29th, Principal Asset Managements Global Chief Strategist, Hima Shah, stated that Federal Reserve Governor Wallers dissenting vote on the Feds decision to keep interest rates unchanged solidifies his position as a contender for Fed Chair. "More importantly, his argument that policy needs to move closer to a neutral stance is likely to gain more support over time—especially as signs of a cooling labor market become more concrete and the downward trend in inflation persists," Shah said.On January 29th, Catalyst Funds Chief Investment Officer David Miller noted in a report that the two dissenting votes at this Federal Reserve meeting "highlight growing concerns that policy may already be tight enough." He stated that while inflation is cooling and labor market momentum is weakening, the broader committee indicated a cautious, meeting-by-meeting approach to policymaking in 2026. Miller believes that against the backdrop of legal scrutiny and questions about the Feds independence, the outcome of this meeting was less of a strong policy statement and more of a pattern of maintaining the status quo. In this interest rate decision, Milan and Waller opposed the decision to keep interest rates unchanged, advocating for a 25 basis point cut.

NZD/USD falls rapidly from 0.6260 when the RBNZ announces a decline in inflation projections to 3.07 percent

Daniel Rogers

Aug 08, 2022 12:00

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The NZD/USD pair has encountered selling pressure while attempting to surpass the immediate resistance level of 0.6260. The asset has seen bids after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced inflation estimates at 3.07 percent, down from 3.29 percent previously. It could be an indication of waning price pressure, but additional evidence is still needed to support the argument.

 

Price pressures in the New Zealand economy are increasing and have not yet shown signs of weariness. A June report indicates that an inflation rate of 7.3% is adequate to generate headwinds for families. The RBNZ is consistently escalating its policy tightening measures to combat the same. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr has already increased the Official Cash Rate by 2.50 percentage points.

 

On the front of the US dollar, the US dollar index (DXY) has returned all intraday gains and is currently trading near the day's open at 106.60. While attempting to break over the crucial resistance level of 106.80, the DXY has encountered selling pressure. This week, investors' attention is centered on Wednesday's release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).

 

The annual inflation rate is projected to continue at 8.7 percent, down from 9.1 percent in the previous report. Oil prices have been on a downward trend in July, which may be the determining factor for a significant decline in the price increase index. While the US CPI excluding volatile food and oil prices may increase from 5.9 percent to 6.1 percent, the previous reading was 5.9 percent.