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On July 9th, InvestingLive analyst Adam Button stated that the Federal Reserves June meeting minutes released a hawkish signal, indicating that officials remain highly concerned about inflation risks. Button believes the Feds policy focus is shifting, with market attention moving from "when to cut rates" to "whether to raise rates." The minutes showed that some officials expect interest rates to be higher than current levels by the end of the year. He also pointed out that core inflationary pressures in the US remain significant, with rising prices in areas such as airfares and petrochemicals suggesting that inflation is not entirely driven by short-term factors. Overall, there is increasing disagreement within the Fed regarding the future path of interest rates, but high inflation remains a key factor influencing policy direction.July 9th - Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed that policymakers still expect "real GDP to maintain solid growth" for the remainder of 2026. They also noted that multiple employment indicators suggest the labor market remains stable and does not appear to be a source of inflationary pressures. The June 17th statement was shorter than those released after recent meetings, foreshadowing action from Warsh, who has pledged to radically change the Feds communication strategy. The minutes showed that several officials agreed it was time to consider significant revisions to the post-meeting statement.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio: Lifting sanctions on Syria will open the door to international trade and investment and give Syria an opportunity to rebuild.July 9th - The minutes of the Federal Reserves June policy meeting revealed a significant divergence of opinion among officials regarding the future direction of interest rates. Some policymakers believed inflation might ease, creating conditions for a rate cut; others were concerned about persistent price pressures and thought a rate hike might be necessary. At the meeting held on June 16-17, the Fed unanimously decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.5% to 3.75%. However, discussions showed differing opinions among policymakers regarding the year-end interest rate level. Some officials believed that the rate might be close to or even slightly lower than current levels by the end of the year; others believed that rates might need to be higher than current levels. The Fed stated that future policy will be adjusted based on economic data such as inflation and employment.July 9th - The Federal Reserve meeting minutes stated, "Most participants emphasized that if inflation remains above 2% for several consecutive years, persistently high inflation could begin to affect inflation expectations and wage and price setting decisions." Fed officials also indicated that their inflation forecasts for this year and next are higher than those set at the April meeting, again demonstrating concerns about inflation. Staff predict that core inflation, already above 3%, will remain largely unchanged for the remainder of the year.

NZD/USD falls rapidly from 0.6260 when the RBNZ announces a decline in inflation projections to 3.07 percent

Daniel Rogers

Aug 08, 2022 12:00

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The NZD/USD pair has encountered selling pressure while attempting to surpass the immediate resistance level of 0.6260. The asset has seen bids after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced inflation estimates at 3.07 percent, down from 3.29 percent previously. It could be an indication of waning price pressure, but additional evidence is still needed to support the argument.

 

Price pressures in the New Zealand economy are increasing and have not yet shown signs of weariness. A June report indicates that an inflation rate of 7.3% is adequate to generate headwinds for families. The RBNZ is consistently escalating its policy tightening measures to combat the same. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr has already increased the Official Cash Rate by 2.50 percentage points.

 

On the front of the US dollar, the US dollar index (DXY) has returned all intraday gains and is currently trading near the day's open at 106.60. While attempting to break over the crucial resistance level of 106.80, the DXY has encountered selling pressure. This week, investors' attention is centered on Wednesday's release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).

 

The annual inflation rate is projected to continue at 8.7 percent, down from 9.1 percent in the previous report. Oil prices have been on a downward trend in July, which may be the determining factor for a significant decline in the price increase index. While the US CPI excluding volatile food and oil prices may increase from 5.9 percent to 6.1 percent, the previous reading was 5.9 percent.