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On May 25th, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was visiting India, told the media on the 24th that a draft agreement between the US and Iran had gained the support of several Middle Eastern countries. Rubio said that seven to eight countries in the region currently support the draft, and the US is prepared to continue pushing it forward. Rubio also stated that nuclear negotiations are highly specialized, and "its impossible to settle a nuclear matter in 72 hours by writing it on the back of a napkin," but President Trumps commitment to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons should not be questioned. Earlier that day, Trump posted on social media that negotiations with Iran were "going in an orderly and constructive manner," and that he had informed US representatives that there was no need to rush into an agreement with Iran.On May 25th, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated that the ECB is likely to raise its inflation outlook when policymakers meet next month. She said on Sunday that the March forecast of 2.6% inflation this year "may be revised," adding that the situation "has changed" since then. Her comments confirm recent signals from policymakers, including Governing Council member Demarco. Demarco, in an interview, suggested that the forecast, released shortly after the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq conflict, might have been overly optimistic. Lagarde declined to elaborate on whether such a revision would lead to a rate hike by the ECB on June 11th. "The current situation is so uncertain that we must examine all available data, assess how the economy will develop in the coming quarters, determine whether action is needed, and what the medium-term impact will be," she said. "Our target is 2% in the medium term."On May 25th, Kevin Hassett, US President Trumps chief economic advisor, stated that he believes the eventual drop in oil prices will create room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. "We again expect that once an agreement is reached, energy prices will plummet," Hassett said. "When that happens, the Fed will have ample room to take the right action and lower interest rates." He emphasized his respect for the Feds independence and praised Kevin Warsh, who was sworn in as Fed chairman last Friday. While the surge in US fuel prices caused by Irans closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses a growing political risk to Trump and his Republicans in the November midterm elections, Hassett believes that accelerating inflation is primarily driven by energy prices. "If you look at the recent data reports, energy prices are absolutely worrying, but core prices have hardly changed," he said. "I think once we see energy prices fall, you might actually see negative inflation because of the drop in energy prices."European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: The current situation is too uncertain to make a commitment on interest rates; inflation forecasts may be revised in June, at which time the ECB will assess the economic situation by taking all data into account.May 25th - According to sources, Ubers board of directors met on Saturday to discuss raising its takeover bid for German food delivery group Delivery Hero. Uber had previously offered €38 per share to Delivery Heros largest shareholder, but this was rejected. Uber is currently evaluating whether to raise its offer again. Meanwhile, several Delivery Hero shareholders have stated they are seeking a price of over €40 per share for the entire company, which would value the company at approximately €13 billion.

NZD/USD falls rapidly from 0.6260 when the RBNZ announces a decline in inflation projections to 3.07 percent

Daniel Rogers

Aug 08, 2022 12:00

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The NZD/USD pair has encountered selling pressure while attempting to surpass the immediate resistance level of 0.6260. The asset has seen bids after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced inflation estimates at 3.07 percent, down from 3.29 percent previously. It could be an indication of waning price pressure, but additional evidence is still needed to support the argument.

 

Price pressures in the New Zealand economy are increasing and have not yet shown signs of weariness. A June report indicates that an inflation rate of 7.3% is adequate to generate headwinds for families. The RBNZ is consistently escalating its policy tightening measures to combat the same. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr has already increased the Official Cash Rate by 2.50 percentage points.

 

On the front of the US dollar, the US dollar index (DXY) has returned all intraday gains and is currently trading near the day's open at 106.60. While attempting to break over the crucial resistance level of 106.80, the DXY has encountered selling pressure. This week, investors' attention is centered on Wednesday's release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).

 

The annual inflation rate is projected to continue at 8.7 percent, down from 9.1 percent in the previous report. Oil prices have been on a downward trend in July, which may be the determining factor for a significant decline in the price increase index. While the US CPI excluding volatile food and oil prices may increase from 5.9 percent to 6.1 percent, the previous reading was 5.9 percent.