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On July 30th, Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, stated in a report that the Federal Reserves decision to maintain interest rates, given the dissenting votes of three committee members, appeared more like an internal debate than a consensus decision, confirming market expectations of a delicate balance before the meeting. The statement offered little new information, but these dissenting opinions conveyed a clear message: the Fed is not yet confident that the battle against inflation has been won. While a rate cut is currently unlikely, investors cannot rule out the possibility of another rate hike before the end of the year. Principal Asset Managements basic assumption remains that the Fed will remain on hold until the end of 2026 as underlying inflationary pressures ease, "but confidence in this view is low."On July 30th, Christian Hoffmann, head of fixed income at Chambord Investment Management, stated that the Federal Reserves decision to keep interest rates unchanged was "not a foregone conclusion," calling it a "disturbing pause." Despite some constructive inflation data, oil prices surged again amid increased geopolitical uncertainty. We are increasingly convinced that this is no longer a Fed that reveals its every move well in advance, nor one that frequently shares its thoughts on various occasions.On July 30th, Ed Hutchings, Head of Interest Rates at Aviva Investors, stated in a report that investors will have to adapt to greater uncertainty under the leadership of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Warsh. While the Feds decision to maintain interest rates was largely in line with expectations, considerable uncertainty existed before the meeting regarding the outcome and subsequent wording. Under the new Fed Chairman, this appears to be something investors will have to adjust to.TD Cowen: Lowered its price target for Qualcomm (QCOM.O) from $225 to $175.French household spending rose 0.1% year-on-year in June, compared with 0.30% in the previous month.

NZD/USD falls rapidly from 0.6260 when the RBNZ announces a decline in inflation projections to 3.07 percent

Daniel Rogers

Aug 08, 2022 12:00

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The NZD/USD pair has encountered selling pressure while attempting to surpass the immediate resistance level of 0.6260. The asset has seen bids after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced inflation estimates at 3.07 percent, down from 3.29 percent previously. It could be an indication of waning price pressure, but additional evidence is still needed to support the argument.

 

Price pressures in the New Zealand economy are increasing and have not yet shown signs of weariness. A June report indicates that an inflation rate of 7.3% is adequate to generate headwinds for families. The RBNZ is consistently escalating its policy tightening measures to combat the same. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr has already increased the Official Cash Rate by 2.50 percentage points.

 

On the front of the US dollar, the US dollar index (DXY) has returned all intraday gains and is currently trading near the day's open at 106.60. While attempting to break over the crucial resistance level of 106.80, the DXY has encountered selling pressure. This week, investors' attention is centered on Wednesday's release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).

 

The annual inflation rate is projected to continue at 8.7 percent, down from 9.1 percent in the previous report. Oil prices have been on a downward trend in July, which may be the determining factor for a significant decline in the price increase index. While the US CPI excluding volatile food and oil prices may increase from 5.9 percent to 6.1 percent, the previous reading was 5.9 percent.

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