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On June 29th, Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr stated that despite the renewed conflict in the Middle East over the weekend, the New Zealand market generally believes a peace agreement is highly likely. With oil prices falling to pre-war levels, demand appears poised for a rebound. He added that while the New Zealand economy has been hit, it has not completely collapsed. The oil crisis has slowed the pace of economic recovery, enough to damage demand, but it has not completely derailed economic activity. Kerr pointed out that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has strong reasons to maintain interest rates at its July policy meeting.June 29th, Futures News: With the impact of geopolitical conflicts waning and crude oil gradually returning to a normal supply and demand balance, oil prices have continued to decline. Fuel oil cost transmission has dampened market confidence, leading to cautious and low-level procurement, and a growing bearish sentiment in the market. From a supply and demand perspective, concentrated maintenance shutdowns at local refineries have reshaped the short-term supply and demand pattern for fuel oil. After mixed price movements, most products are in oversupply, offering little support for price increases. While refinery deep processing has seen some recovery, it remains unprofitable, negatively impacting downstream processing activity. Based on these multiple factors, fuel oil trading is expected to be more likely to decline this week, with prices remaining in a downward trend.The Hang Seng Index rose more than 1% in early trading, with Baidu (09888.HK) leading the gains among constituent stocks, rising over 6%. The Hang Seng Tech Index is currently up 2.88%.On June 29th, the highest 7-day annualized yield of Tencent Wealth Managements "Current Account +" was 1.4260%, and the lowest was 0.7270%. The highest 7-day annualized yield of WeChat Pays "Lingqian Tong" was 1.0280%, and the lowest was 1.0050%. The highest 7-day annualized yield of Alipays "Yuebao" was 1.0350%, and the lowest was 1.0050%.The Hang Seng Tech Index rose rapidly to 2% in early trading, with Horizon Robotics (09660.HK) leading the gains among its constituent stocks.

NZD/USD falls rapidly from 0.6260 when the RBNZ announces a decline in inflation projections to 3.07 percent

Daniel Rogers

Aug 08, 2022 12:00

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The NZD/USD pair has encountered selling pressure while attempting to surpass the immediate resistance level of 0.6260. The asset has seen bids after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced inflation estimates at 3.07 percent, down from 3.29 percent previously. It could be an indication of waning price pressure, but additional evidence is still needed to support the argument.

 

Price pressures in the New Zealand economy are increasing and have not yet shown signs of weariness. A June report indicates that an inflation rate of 7.3% is adequate to generate headwinds for families. The RBNZ is consistently escalating its policy tightening measures to combat the same. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr has already increased the Official Cash Rate by 2.50 percentage points.

 

On the front of the US dollar, the US dollar index (DXY) has returned all intraday gains and is currently trading near the day's open at 106.60. While attempting to break over the crucial resistance level of 106.80, the DXY has encountered selling pressure. This week, investors' attention is centered on Wednesday's release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).

 

The annual inflation rate is projected to continue at 8.7 percent, down from 9.1 percent in the previous report. Oil prices have been on a downward trend in July, which may be the determining factor for a significant decline in the price increase index. While the US CPI excluding volatile food and oil prices may increase from 5.9 percent to 6.1 percent, the previous reading was 5.9 percent.

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