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On October 4th, a fire broke out at the Kirishi refinery in Russias Leningrad Oblast overnight on Saturday, attributed to a drone attack. Leningrad Oblast official Alexander Drozdenko confirmed the attack and the fire in the industrial area of Kirishi, adding that the fire had been extinguished. He did not specify the exact location of the fire. Drozdenko also claimed that "seven drones were destroyed." The refinery is reportedly one of Russias five largest refineries, with an annual processing capacity of approximately 21 million tons of crude oil.On October 4th, global memory chip prices have continued to rise over the past six months. News of price increases has become increasingly frequent, especially in the past month. Major manufacturers such as South Koreas Samsung Electronics and the United States SanDisk have recently notified customers of price adjustments, leading to a rapid increase in spot market prices. The capital market has directly responded to recent changes in the memory chip market, with the stock prices of many manufacturers continuing to hit record highs. In the past month, Microns stock price has risen by approximately 60%, while Kioxia and SanDisks stock prices have both risen by over 100%. From an industry perspective, Morgan Stanleys latest research report predicts that the memory chip industry is expected to usher in a "super cycle" driven by the boom in artificial intelligence.On October 4th, Wang Hongying, President of the Financial Derivatives Investment Research Institute, stated that the recent surge in the gold market was directly driven by global gold market investment professionals predicting a 90% probability of further Federal Reserve rate cuts in October. The Feds rate cut decision was undoubtedly a key catalyst for the gold price surge. The market generally expects the Fed to cut rates one or two more times this year, a prospect that has significantly driven the continued rise in gold prices. These factors continue to exert their influence on gold prices, contributing to the markets generally bullish outlook. In addition to expectations of a Fed rate cut, the continued escalation of geopolitical conflict has also fueled the gold price rally. The US government shutdown has damaged credit and exacerbated risk aversion in the market. Furthermore, the US governments announcement to allow the export of long-range missiles with a range exceeding 1,000 kilometers to Ukraine has further intensified geopolitical tensions. Israels naval blockade of international aid organizations carrying aid to Gaza also directly contributed to the sharp rise in gold prices. Furthermore, Europes sudden announcement of a 50% tariff on imported steel marks the official start of a geopolitical war, leading to a rapid increase in risk aversion towards gold in the short term.Delphin, Ambassador of the European Union Delegation to India: EU companies have created more than 3 million direct jobs in India.On October 4th, the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) announced plans to strengthen safety oversight of special equipment related to tourism and high-risk special equipment, and enhance risk monitoring and emergency response. Focusing on crowded areas such as scenic spots, transportation hubs, commercial complexes, and amusement parks, the SAMR will strengthen supervision and inspection of frequently used tourism-related special equipment, including passenger ropeways, large amusement facilities, off-highway tourist vehicles, and elevators in public gathering places. Users will be urged to conduct comprehensive self-inspections to prevent unlicensed operation, faulty operation, or overloaded operation.

The USD/JPY advances somewhat above 134.00 as negative sentiment and Fed worries combine with rising interest rates

Daniel Rogers

Feb 20, 2023 11:18

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USD/JPY establishes an intraday high towards the middle of 134.00 as it gains bids to reverse the previous day's decline from a multi-day high on Monday morning. In doing so, the Yen pair reflects the broad US Dollar gain amid fairly gloomy sentiment and the US and Canadian vacations.

 

Nonetheless, geopolitical concerns about China, North Korea, and Russia have recently weighed on market sentiment, despite the short calendar and absence of US/Canadian traders restraining momentum.

 

North Korea fired two ballistic missiles toward Japan over the weekend, reviving concerns that the hermit kingdom is up to something that could endanger the global economy. This is partly owing to the fact that both rockets were classified as tactical nuclear assault weapons.

 

In a similar vein, the most recent meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and China's top diplomat Wang Yi did not appear to have repaired US-China relations. Possible cause is a comment by a Chinese envoy that the United States must change course and restore the damage caused to Sino-American ties by the indiscriminate use of force. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, US representative to the United Nations, declared on Sunday that China would cross a "red line" if it opted to provide lethal military aid to Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

 

Meanwhile, better-than-expected readings of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales followed earlier positive readings of employment and output statistics and raised US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar. The hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) views and the aforementioned risk-negative factors may be comparable.

 

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman recently observed, as reported by Reuters, "We are observing an abundance of contradictory economic data." As reported by Reuters, Thomas Barkin, president of the Richmond Federal Reserve, claimed that they are detecting some inflationary progress due to the normalization of demand.

 

It should be underlined that the mixed leaning for the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) new monetary policy board and chatters of more inflation in Japan likely to place a floor under the Yen.

 

Among these trades, the S&P 500 Futures print small losses even as Wall Street closed neutral. It’s worth noting that the US 10-year Treasury bond yields jumped to the highest levels since early November in the last week and helped the DXY to register a three-week advance.

 

For forward, Japan’s National Core Inflation figures will join the second reading of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product to steer immediate USD/JPY fluctuations. Yet, the most attention will be paid to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes.