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A Reuters poll shows 53% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates to 0.75% in December. Economists unanimously believe the Bank of Japan will raise rates to at least 0.75% before the end of the first quarter of next year. Wage increases in labor negotiations next year are expected to be 4.90%, lower than this years 5.25%.November 20th - Despite Trumps repeated mentions of providing $2,000 to low- and middle-income families and his claim that the funds would come from tariff revenue, his party colleagues are generally lukewarm about the plan, questioning its ability to secure congressional approval to deliver on its promise. Several Republican members of Congress have stated they prefer using tariff revenue to reduce the fiscal deficit rather than directly distributing cash. With US public debt nearing historic highs, lawmakers believe the priority should be strengthening fiscal discipline, not restarting the "money-giving" model. Furthermore, some lawmakers are considering using tariff revenue to extend subsidies under the Affordable Care Act. This subsidy expires on December 31st, and failure to renew it would lead to a surge in insurance premiums for millions of Americans.Market news: The White House has asked Congress to reject a bill restricting Nvidias exports.Jinlu Electronics: The companys PCB products are used in battery management systems, but it does not produce lithium batteries.On November 20th, Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara stated at a press conference that the recent one-way, sharp fluctuations in the yens exchange rate are worrying and require close monitoring. He pointed out, "We must be vigilant against excessive volatility and disorderly trends in the exchange rate." This statement came as the yen fell below 157 against the dollar, reaching its weakest level since January of this year. The weakening market expectations for a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve are a significant factor driving the dollars strength and putting pressure on the yen. Kihara emphasized that stable exchange rates based on economic fundamentals are crucial, and he opposed sharp fluctuations driven by speculation or market sentiment.

Prior to UK/US PMI, GBP/USD Justifies Monday's Bearish Doji to Drop to 1.2000

Alina Haynes

Feb 21, 2023 15:18

 GBP:USD.png

 

In the early hours of Tuesday morning, GBP/USD retests intraday lows at 1.2020 as traders celebrate the return of Western traders after a lengthy weekend owing to American holidays. In addition to the return of the entire market, the traders of the Cable pair express concern over the Brexit deal negotiations and worries regarding the trust of small industries.

 

Late on Monday, the UK Times claimed that British Ministers are willing to resign over (Prime Minister) Rishi Sunak's Brexit proposal if it undermines Northern Ireland's position inside the United Kingdom. The Times said that "the hostility of euroskeptic Tory lawmakers to the accord is rising."

 

In another article, The Times quotes a Barclay's industrial poll to show that small business owners are becoming more hopeful about the future. The same adds to evidence that the United Kingdom's economic outlook may not be as grim as feared and stated in the press.

 

Concerns of a monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE) appear to be weighing on the GBP/USD exchange rate, as seen by the week's mixed British results and the robust American data.

 

Notwithstanding this, yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes are near their highest levels since early November 2022, with bids hanging around 3.86 percent.

 

Meanwhile, geopolitical concerns emanating from China and Russia appear to enhance the safe-haven demand for the US Dollar and weigh on the GBP/USD exchange rate.

 

The initial figures of the S&P Global PMIs for February will be crucial for GBP/USD traders. To stabilize prices, however, favorable news from the United Kingdom is essential, since recent US Treasury bond yield movements have favored the US Dollar ahead of the most critical US PMIs.


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