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January 6th - The larger-than-expected slowdown in German inflation at the end of last year has not provided sufficient reason for the European Central Bank (ECB) to change its current policy path. The German Federal Statistical Office reported on Tuesday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2% year-on-year in December, following a 2.6% increase last month. The median forecast in the survey was 2.2%. This comes after earlier reports from France and data from Spain last week, both indicating easing price pressures. Eurozone data will be released on Wednesday, with economists predicting inflation will be at the 2% target level. Policymakers have expressed confidence that inflation is back under control. Although the ECBs latest forecasts show that price increases this year and next will be below target, the extent of this shortfall is minimal – sticky inflation in the services sector remains a cause for concern. Executive Board member Schnabel stated that unless any shocks occur, borrowing costs "are likely to remain stable for a considerable period."January 6th - JPMorgan Chases US Treasury client survey showed that as of the week ending January 5th, the proportion of long positions decreased by 11 percentage points, short positions increased by 6 percentage points, and neutral positions increased by 5 percentage points. All client surveys showed that net long positions and the proportion of long positions both reached their lowest levels since October 2024.Germanys preliminary harmonized CPI monthly rate for December was 0.2%, below the expected 0.4% and the previous reading of -0.50%.Germanys preliminary December CPI annual rate was 1.8%, below the expected 2.1% and the previous value of 2.30%.Germanys preliminary December CPI month-on-month rate was 0%, compared to an expected 0.3% and a previous reading of -0.20%.

USD/JPY Reverses Two-Day Advance Despite Positive Rates and Bullish Fed Statements

Alina Haynes

Feb 15, 2023 14:36

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Following a two-day winning run, USD/JPY returns to the bears' radar early on Wednesday as market players evaluate the Fed's hawkish decision in relation to their expectations for the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) next move. As a result, the Yen pair re-establishes its intraday low near 132.70 and has posted its first daily loss in three days, down 0.20% as of press time.

 

The Japanese government's choice of a hawkish leader for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) board appears to have pressured USD/JPY negative in recent days, despite the rise in US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar's rebound following US inflation data.

 

The Japanese government nominated Kazuo Ueda as Governor of the Bank of Japan on Tuesday. Notably, Bloomberg published an article saying that the Bank of Japan's easy-money policy could be challenged as a result of Ueda's hawkish predisposition.

 

Even if inflation did not exceed "positive surprise" expectations, the majority of Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers outside of the United States supported additional rate hikes. The yields on US Treasury bonds and the US Dollar were driven by the same factor.

 

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 6.4% year-over-year, exceeding market estimates, but registering the slowest increase since 2021 and falling below 6.5% previously. Importantly, the CPI excluding food and energy, often known as the Core CPI, rose by 5.6% compared to market forecasts of 5.5% and prior readings of 5.5%.

 

Following the release of the numbers, the president of the Dallas Fed, Lorie Logan, indicated that they must be prepared to continue rate hikes for a longer period than previously planned. John Williams, president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, reiterated this attitude, noting that the task of containing high inflation is not yet accomplished. In addition, Patrick Harker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, intimated that they are not quite finished (with raising rates), but that they are close.

 

US 10-year Treasury bond rates fluctuate around 3.75% after increasing three basis points (bps) to reestablish a six-week high, while the two-year equivalent climbed to its highest level since early November 2022 by reaching 4.62%.

 

Despite this, S&P 500 Futures track Wall Street's bearish closing to highlight the somewhat pessimistic outlook and weigh on the USD/JPY exchange rate, mostly due to the Japanese Yen's (JPY) traditional attraction for risk aversion.

 

Lack of substantial Japanese data/events makes the USD/JPY pair susceptible to US stimuli for direction. The January Retail Sales and Industrial Production figures as well as the February New York Empire State Manufacturing Index should be examined closely.


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