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BNP Paribas expects the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged in March, whereas it had previously anticipated a rate cut.March 11 – Due to persistent inflationary pressures, two major Australian banks expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise interest rates for the second consecutive week. National Australia Bank (NAB) and Westpac predicted on Wednesday that the RBA will raise rates by 25 basis points to 4.1% next week, in line with expectations from UBS and Deutsche Bank. NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld stated, “Given Australia’s relatively unfavorable inflation starting point and recent data confirming that the economy is running well above trend growth, the rationale for a rate hike in the near term is clear.” Westpac Chief Economist Luci Ellis said that the RBA’s belief that demand continues to exceed economic capacity and its willingness to address surging overall inflation to prevent a sustained rise in price expectations prompted her to change her forecast. Ellis stated, “There could be disagreements at next week’s meeting. Market participants should consider the possibility that the RBA might choose to wait until May to raise rates, but this is no longer our base case scenario.”March 11 (Kyodo News) – Japanese Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ryosuke Akazawa stated on Wednesday during a parliamentary committee meeting, in response to questions from lawmakers, that the Japanese government has not ruled out the possibility of releasing national oil reserves "on its own initiative," rather than as part of a coordinated action. He added, "We will take all possible measures to ensure a stable energy supply." As of the end of December, Japans total oil reserves were sufficient to meet domestic consumption needs for 254 days, of which 146 days worth were held by the government, 101 days worth were held by the private sector, and the remainder were stored jointly with oil-producing countries.March 11th - This years government work report further clarified the need to "expand market access with a focus on the service sector," accelerating Beijings new round of opening up. In the first batch of pilot programs nationwide to expand opening up in areas such as value-added telecommunications and healthcare, Beijing became the first city in China to establish a foreign-invested enterprise specializing in human gene diagnosis and treatment technology. To date, more than 60 foreign-invested enterprises have participated in the pilot programs. Last year, Beijing saw over 2,400 new foreign-invested enterprises, a record high. According to the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce, this year will see the release of the 3.0 plan for the comprehensive demonstration zone for expanding opening up in the service sector, the implementation of actions to enhance the opening-up level of key industrial parks, the promotion of differentiated development of comprehensive bonded zones, and proactive alignment with high-standard international trade and economic rules, injecting new momentum into a higher level of opening up.Market news: The Saudi Foreign Minister spoke with the US Secretary of State to discuss Irans regional aggression.

The Dollar Fell as Riskier Assets Surged in Response to the Fed's Decision

Daniel Rogers

May 05, 2022 11:13

USD/CAD fell dramatically in the aftermath of the Fed meeting and during the press conference of the Fed Chair. The Federal Reserve concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, hiking interest rates by 50 basis points and signaling to the markets that it will continue to monitor the market environment.

 

On June 1, the Fed will begin reducing its balance sheet. This was a foregone conclusion and is seen as quantitative tightening.

 

The Federal Reserve will initiate the run-off of 47 billion and 95 billion dollars off its balance sheet in three months. Consumer and business expenditures continue to be robust. Economic activity was almost certainly harmed by the invasion of Ukraine. The Fed stated that the Chinese lockdowns would almost certainly result in more supply chain disruptions.

Technical Evaluation

On Wednesday, the USD/CAD reversed and fell. It reached 2022 highs early in the week and then consolidated. Near the May high of 1.2920, resistance is present. Support is seen near the 1.2685 20-day moving average. The 20-day moving average has crossed above the 50-day moving average, indicating the start of a medium-term uptrend.

 

Short-term momentum reverses to the downside as the fast stochastics may be approaching a crossover sell signal. The medium-term momentum is bullish, since the MACD line generated a buy signal upon crossover. The MACD's trajectory is bullish but decelerating, indicating consolidation.

 

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