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On April 16th, Federal Reserve Chairman Mohamed Mussaleem stated on Wednesday that high oil prices could push core inflation nearly one percentage point above the Feds 2% target for the remainder of the year, potentially requiring the Fed to maintain interest rates. Mussaleem said, "We are likely to see some transmission of oil prices to core inflation," and that by the end of the year, the underlying measure of price increases will be "slightly below 3%, perhaps around 3%," with further upside risks. Mussaleem said the Fed is likely to keep its policy rate in its current 3.50%-3.75% range "for some time," while monitoring inflation, employment, and economic data in the coming months—a view shared by many of his colleagues. The impact of last years tariff increases may be fading this quarter, and housing price inflation is also weakening. With rising oil prices, inflation in a range of service sectors remains high, and he would be open to raising interest rates if inflation starts to rise and potentially boost inflation expectations. Mussaleem also stated that the oil market represents "the third negative supply shock in 12 months," and coupled with rising tariffs and stricter immigration regulations, the inflation outlook and the job market face risks, potentially impacting economic growth. He believes that economic growth will slow this year, but will still be between 1.5% and 2%.According to MS Now, citing two Pakistani officials, the US and Iran may return to Pakistan next week for negotiations.On April 16, it was reported that on April 15 local time, a majority of U.S. senators expressed support for President Trumps military action against Iran. The Senate voted 52 to 47 to reject a Democratic-led resolution aimed at preventing war until hostilities were authorized by Congress.Federal Reserve Chairman Mossallem: As economic growth slows, the unemployment rate may rise, but the increase may only be a fraction of a percentage point.Federal Reserve Chairman Mossallem: We have not yet seen a clear impact of the war on consumption.

The US Stock Markets Continue to Slump

Alina Haynes

Apr 27, 2022 10:07

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 

The S&P 500 has fallen quite a bit in the futures market during the trading session, as it appears as though risk appetite will continue to be quite negative. Naturally, this has a negative impact on the S&P 500 futures market, and it appears as though we are about to test the bottom of the most recent selloff. At this moment, the market is also preparing to create the "death cross," which occurs when the 50 Day EMA falls below the 200 Day EMA. While I am not entirely in favor of this signal, I know that it is an area that many people will focus on, and hence may become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

The 4100 level beneath has acted as a temporary support barrier, but I believe it is about to be tested again at this time. It's worth noting that during the previous trading session, we formed a massive hammer, implying that there is some support just below. If we were to breach all of that support, the market would descend into a freefall. This would almost likely attract the attention of the majority of people, and perhaps even spark a bit of panic.

 

At that point, the market would very certainly sell off precipitously. To even begin to seem healthy and like it may be an uptrending market, or simply one with a chance of recovery in general, the market would need to break above the 4400 level. At this time, it appears as though we are in grave danger.

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