EUR/USD 1.18019
0.057%
Gold 4799.38
-0.873%
Oil 87.969
-1.266%
USD/JPY 158.975
0.125%
GBP/USD 1.35718
0.043%
GBP/JPY 215.763
0.180%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
On April 16th, Federal Reserve Chairman Mohamed Mussaleem stated on Wednesday that high oil prices could push core inflation nearly one percentage point above the Feds 2% target for the remainder of the year, potentially requiring the Fed to maintain interest rates. Mussaleem said, "We are likely to see some transmission of oil prices to core inflation," and that by the end of the year, the underlying measure of price increases will be "slightly below 3%, perhaps around 3%," with further upside risks. Mussaleem said the Fed is likely to keep its policy rate in its current 3.50%-3.75% range "for some time," while monitoring inflation, employment, and economic data in the coming months—a view shared by many of his colleagues. The impact of last years tariff increases may be fading this quarter, and housing price inflation is also weakening. With rising oil prices, inflation in a range of service sectors remains high, and he would be open to raising interest rates if inflation starts to rise and potentially boost inflation expectations. Mussaleem also stated that the oil market represents "the third negative supply shock in 12 months," and coupled with rising tariffs and stricter immigration regulations, the inflation outlook and the job market face risks, potentially impacting economic growth. He believes that economic growth will slow this year, but will still be between 1.5% and 2%.According to MS Now, citing two Pakistani officials, the US and Iran may return to Pakistan next week for negotiations.On April 16, it was reported that on April 15 local time, a majority of U.S. senators expressed support for President Trumps military action against Iran. The Senate voted 52 to 47 to reject a Democratic-led resolution aimed at preventing war until hostilities were authorized by Congress.Federal Reserve Chairman Mossallem: As economic growth slows, the unemployment rate may rise, but the increase may only be a fraction of a percentage point.Federal Reserve Chairman Mossallem: We have not yet seen a clear impact of the war on consumption.

This Year, Bitcoin Has Stagnated. What is to Come Next?

Alina Haynes

Apr 29, 2022 10:09

Technical Analysis of the Bitcoin Elliot Wave

截屏2022-04-29 上午9.34.49.png

 

Bitcoin (BTC) began the year 2021 at a price of $46197 and is currently trading at $40297. Only a 12.8 percent decline, but everyone is gloomy. Between January 24th and March 28th of this year, it went as low as $32991 and as high as $46669. Almost all of BTC's price activity this year has been limited within a range of $35500 to $45000, with a mid-point of $40500.

 

From an Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) standpoint, sideways markets are the most difficult to anticipate due to the abundance of alternatives. Knowing which scenario is more likely becomes more of an educated estimate than it is when the cryptocurrency is in a much more defined impulse-based upswing. Consider Figure 1.

 

Bitcoin displayed a distinct impulse pattern leading up to the blue Primary-III high in early-2021, and then a distinct five-wave impulse pattern from the June lows to the November 2021 highs. BTC should have topped for a (pink) Cycle-3 wave and is currently in a Cycle-4 wave, according to my larger-picture EWP analysis.

 

I demonstrated in my prior report, which can be found here, that BTC was constructing a more imminent downside setup to $25K for wave-C4. Or if it becomes more problematic due to the famously difficult nature of fourth waves. In today's update, I'd want to take a deep dive into the more complex case. 

Final Thoughts

BTC is currently undergoing a multi-month fourth wave correction of the same magnitude as the wave that concluded in 2018 following the 2017 apex. Fourth waves are perplexing because they can take on at least 12 different patterns. Knowing which of these is which is impossible in advance. At this point, BTC has the potential to evolve into a complex triangle, but three factors must occur in order for it to occur:

  • Maintain a position above the trendline connecting the January and February lows, which is currently located at $36900.

  • Closer to this year's mid-point of $40,500. This reintroduces the possibility of targeting $45,500.

  • A near-recovery of the late-March high of $46669. Then the possible greater a-b-c pattern of wave-B is activated, preferably reaching $60K.

  • As a result, the stage has been set. The conditions are favorable for the formation of a complicated triangle. All BTC needs to do is give the triggers for the "three-step program" outlined above.

Suggestion