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On April 16th, Federal Reserve Chairman Mohamed Mussaleem stated on Wednesday that high oil prices could push core inflation nearly one percentage point above the Feds 2% target for the remainder of the year, potentially requiring the Fed to maintain interest rates. Mussaleem said, "We are likely to see some transmission of oil prices to core inflation," and that by the end of the year, the underlying measure of price increases will be "slightly below 3%, perhaps around 3%," with further upside risks. Mussaleem said the Fed is likely to keep its policy rate in its current 3.50%-3.75% range "for some time," while monitoring inflation, employment, and economic data in the coming months—a view shared by many of his colleagues. The impact of last years tariff increases may be fading this quarter, and housing price inflation is also weakening. With rising oil prices, inflation in a range of service sectors remains high, and he would be open to raising interest rates if inflation starts to rise and potentially boost inflation expectations. Mussaleem also stated that the oil market represents "the third negative supply shock in 12 months," and coupled with rising tariffs and stricter immigration regulations, the inflation outlook and the job market face risks, potentially impacting economic growth. He believes that economic growth will slow this year, but will still be between 1.5% and 2%.According to MS Now, citing two Pakistani officials, the US and Iran may return to Pakistan next week for negotiations.On April 16, it was reported that on April 15 local time, a majority of U.S. senators expressed support for President Trumps military action against Iran. The Senate voted 52 to 47 to reject a Democratic-led resolution aimed at preventing war until hostilities were authorized by Congress.Federal Reserve Chairman Mossallem: As economic growth slows, the unemployment rate may rise, but the increase may only be a fraction of a percentage point.Federal Reserve Chairman Mossallem: We have not yet seen a clear impact of the war on consumption.

Prices of Natural Gas Increased Ahead of an Inventory Report

Daniel Rogers

May 05, 2022 11:21

Tuesday, natural gas prices soared to new 13-year highs. For the next two weeks, the weather is forecast to be mixed, with cooler temperatures on the West Coast and warmer temperatures on the East Coast. Stockpiles of natural gas are projected to grow.

 

Net storage injections totaled 40 Bcf last week, compared to 53 Bcf on average over the last five years and 18 Bcf last year during the same week. Working natural gas inventories totaled 1,490 Bcf, 305 Bcf less than the five-year average and 406 Bcf less than this time last year.

Technical Evaluation 

Natural gas prices increased on Monday, reaching a fresh intraday high of 13 years. At 5.7, support is located at the 20-day moving average. Near the June 2013 highs of 13.60, the target resistance is visible.

 

The medium-term trend has shifted to the positive. A crossover purchase signal was given by the MACD (moving average convergence divergence). The MACD histogram is in positive zone with an upward sloping trajectory, indicating that prices are likely to rise. The short-term momentum indicator has turned positive as a crossing buy signal was given by the fast stochastic.

 

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